Dolphins vs Patriots 2019 NFL Week 17 Odds, Preview & Pick

Dolphins vs Patriots 2019 NFL Week 17 Odds, Preview & Pick

Written by on December 28, 2019

The New England Patriots have plenty to play for in Week 17. Often, Tom Brady and Co. sew up home field throughout the playoffs before the final Sunday. Not this season. Brady, Belichick, and the rest aren’t even fighting for the 1-seed. On Dec. 29, they fight for the 2-seed and first round bye. Will New England beat the rival Miami Dolphins and cover the massive spread? Or, will Miami make the Patriots’ final regular season game competitive?

Dolphins vs Patriots 2019 NFL Week 17 Odds, Preview & Pick

  • When: Sunday, Dec. 29 at 1:00 pm ET
  • Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
  • TV: FOX
  • ATS Odds:  Patriots -16
  • Over/Under Total Odds: 45

Why the Miami Dolphins are a good bet +16?

Most felt the Dolphins were the worst team in NFL history after Week 5. The Dolphins hadn’t won a game. They weren’t even competitive in any games. But, things changed after coach Brian Flores decided to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The ole FitzMagic game out and the Dolphins played every game as if it were a playoff matchup. Since Week 6, the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS. They can keep this within the spread.

Team Statistics

  • Total Yards: 304.7
  • Passing Yards: 231.9
  • Rushing Yards: 72.9
  • Points Scored: 18.6
  • Total Yards: 400.8
  • Passing Yards: 265.4
  • Rushing Yards: 135.4
  • Points Allowed: 31.3

Why the New England Patriots are a good bet -16?

Kansas City battles the L.A. Chargers at the same time the Patriots battle the Dolphins. Both teams must lay it all on the line for that second seed. Two weeks ago, the Patriots got back on the winning and covering track. They dominated the Cincinnati Bengals 34-13. Then last week, they pushed against Buffalo in a 24-17 win. Knowing they must get the “W” on Sunday, the Patriots will dominate the Fins.

Team Statistics

  • Total Yards: 354.1
  • Passing Yards: 249.6
  • Rushing Yards: 104.5
  • Points Scored: 26.4
  • Total Yards: 268.3
  • Passing Yards: 170.7
  • Rushing Yards: 97.7
  • Points Allowed: 13.2

NFL Betting Trends for Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

  • Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus the AFC
  • Miami is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall
  • Dolphins are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games
  • Over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 overall
  • Patriots are 22-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record
  • New England is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 17
  • Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC
  • Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 versus the AFC

Dolphins vs Patriots Final NFL Betting Analysis

Sometimes, handicapping a football game is about the points. That’s it. 16 points are too many in this game. No doubt, the New England Patriots should win by 16 points. But, the Pats haven’t played their best football towards the end of the regular season.

New England lost to both Houston and Kansas City. They got back on track against Cincinnati. But Buffalo should have beaten them in Week 16. That doesn’t mean Miami has any shot at the victory. It does mean the Patriots win but don’t cover. Back the Fins to get the victory against the spread.

NFL Free Pick: Dolphins +16


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