NFL Week 1 Green Bay vs Minnesota Prediction & Odds

NFL Week 1: Green Bay vs Minnesota Prediction & Odds

Written by on September 9, 2022

The Green Bay Packers begin life without All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, traded in the offseason to Las Vegas, as they visit the bitter rival Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. The game could be a pick’em on the NFL odds by kickoff.

How to Bet Packers at Vikings NFL Odds & TV Info

  • When: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
  • Where: US Bank Stadium
  • TV: FOX
  • Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
  • Stream Option: NFLSUNDAYTICKET.TV
  • Opening NFL Lines: Packers -1.5 (total 47.5)

Last Season

The teams split last year, each winning at home. The game in Minneapolis was 34-31 in favor of the Vikings. Greg Joseph made a 29-yard field goal as time expired. Kirk Cousins passed for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Justin Jefferson had eight receptions for 169 yards and two scores for the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes, all on Green Bay’s final four full possessions, excluding a kneel-down to end the first half. All of those drives covered 74 yards or more.

Why Bet on Green Bay?

Packers wideout Allen Lazard (ankle) hasn’t practiced through Thursday. Lazard’s status for Week 1 will depend on what kind of work he can get in on Friday. That means the Packers and MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be without their top returning receiver as they adapt to life without Davante Adams, the two-time All-Pro who was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders in March.

Veterans Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and Amari Rodgers and rookies Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure are the other receivers on Green Bay’s roster. The Packers also have Juwann Winfree and Travis Fulgham on the practice squad. None of them caught more than 28 passes last season.

Rodgers has posted a 100-plus passer rating in 12 straight divisional games. Over that span he has completed 277 of 377 (73.5 pct.) passes for 3,238 yards, 38 TDs, zero INTs and a passer rating of 132.7. RB Aaron Jones (4,163) ranks No. 5 on the Packers all-time rushing list, trailing Tony Canadeo (4,197) for fourth place.

Kicker Mason Crosby missed all of training camp after having his knee scoped in mid-July, but he was activated off the PUP list ahead of the 53-man roster deadline and appears to be good to go for Week 1. Despite his struggles last season (career-low 73.5 field-goal percentage), the Packers have confidence their veteran kicker can bounce back in 2022 after addressing his lingering knee pain during the offseason.

This is just the second time ever that Green Bay has played at Minnesota in Week 1 (2020). It is the fourth straight year and the eighth time in the last 10 seasons Green Bay has started the season on the road. Through 122 meetings, which includes two postseason contests (1-1), the Packers hold a 64-56-3 edge over the Vikings in the all-time series. Green Bay (eight) and Minnesota (four) have won 12 of the last 14 NFC North titles (2008-21).

Why Bet on Minnesota?

Minnesota was incredibly mindful of trying to be as healthy as possible for Week 1. That meant resting most starters throughout the duration of the preseason. Defensive lineman Jonathan Bullard is sole Viking on Wednesday’s injury report.

It’s the Vikings head coaching debut of former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell. Last year, he the Rams to a No. 9 ranking in total offense (372.1 ypg.) last season while also helping his unit rank No. 2 in plays of 50-plus yards (10), No. 4 in yards per play (5.98) and No. 8 in offensive touchdowns (51). Prior to joining the Rams, worked in Washington, O’Connell served as the quarterbacks coach in 2017-18 and the offensive coordinator in 2019.

“This isn’t just any other game … I’m well aware of the importance of this football game for our team,” O’Connell said of his debut. “But I also think it’s important to know we’re not getting in the playoffs by the outcome of Sunday. I think this 17-game season, looking at it, what’s out in front of our team, it’s important that we get off to a good start, we want to play the right way, but we know we’re playing a really good football team that we’re going to see again later in the year.”

While the Vikings ran mostly 12 personnel over the last three seasons, the system that O’Connell is bringing in focuses more on 11 personnel. The receivers are required to block at a high level, but it also makes the passing game that much more lethal with better downfield threats on the field more consistently.

No. 1 tight end Irv Smith missed all of the preseason and most of camp with a thumb injury but will play in Week 1.  In 2020, Smith caught 30 of his 47 targets for 365 yards and five touchdowns. His 2021 season was wiped out by a knee injury.

The Vikings are thrilled that Green Bay traded star receiver Davante Adams in the offseason given the damage he’s wrought on the Vikings to the tune of 93 career receptions for 1,050 yards and 13 touchdowns in 15 Border Battles.

Defensively, with a healthy Danielle Hunter and the addition of former Packer Za’Darius Smith along with a new, aggressive scheme, the Vikings should be able to take advantage of a Packers offensive line that might not be at 100% with the health of David Bakhtiari in question.

Game Trends

  • Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
  • Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC.
  • Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1.
  • Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Vikings 27, Packers 26
 
 

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