Australian Open Betting Predictions & Analysis: Men's and Women's Finals

Australian Open Betting Predictions & Analysis: Men’s and Women’s Finals

The finals of the first Grand Slam of the year are now set at the Australian Open. The women will go first as No. 4 Aryna Sabalenka faces No. 22 Elena Rybakina. Then on the final day of the tournament, No. 4 Novak Djokovic goes after history against No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas. 

At MyBookie, Sabalenka and Djokovic are the favorites to lift the first trophy of the season. Sabalenka is -155 for her match, while Rybakina is +115 to win a second slam in less than 12 months. Djokovic is -526 as he goes after title No. 22, while Tsitsipas is +310 to win his first.  With all that in mind, it’s time to have a closer look at both men’s and women’s title matches so you can bet against their Australian Open Odds.

2023 Australian Open Lines & Betting Opportunities for the Finals | ATP & WTA Odds

Women’s Final Will be Epic Showdown

The women’s final will be played against a major political backdrop with Sabalenka, born in Minsk, Belarus, and Rybakina, born in Moscow but currently playing under the flag of Kazakhstan. Both players are powerful ball-strikers with a strong baseline pedigree. Rybakina is the better server, but Sabalenka has the advantage at the net. 

These players have contrasting appearances on the court. Rybakina is seldom rattled, and most of the time, you can’t tell if she is winning or losing by her demeanor. Watching Sabalenka, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster with the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, though she’s done better to harness the emotions so far in 2023. 

Sabalenka has won all three of their previous matchups, including at Wimbledon in 2021. They haven’t met in the last 18 months, and all three of their previous matchups have gone the full three sets. Each has played out the same way, with Sabalenka winning the first and third sets and Rybakina taking the middle set. 

Rybakina has a slam title under her belt with the Wimbledon crown from last summer. Sabalenka hasn’t played in a singles final, but she does have two doubles titles in grand slams, so she should be comfortable on this stage.  Sabalenka won her 11th career WTA title earlier this month in Adelaide, and Rybakina has three career titles. 

Look for this match to go the distance. The way Rybakina is serving and controlling points, she is going to be hard to beat and is worth a bet as the underdog at +115.

Djokovic on Collision Course with History

The men’s final won’t just decide the first Grand Slam title of the 2023 season but it will also determine who takes the No. 1 world ranking from injured Carlos Alcaraz. No. 4 seed Novak Djokovic cruised past unseeded American Tommy Paul in the semis to win his 27th straight match at Melbourne Park, dating back to the fourth round in 2018. He’s won 12 straight sets in this tournament and is a healthy favorite against No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas, who beat Karen Khachanov in four sets. 

Tsitsipas dropped a set against a second opponent in this tournament when the third-set tiebreak went to Khachanov. Tsitsipas had two match points in that tiebreak for the straight-set sweep, but he bounced back with an early break in the fourth set to win the match. The only other time Tsitsipas dropped a set in this tournament was in a 5-set win over No. 15 Jannik Sinner in the round of 16. 

Djokovic is 10-2 against Tsitsipas with eight straight wins since 2019. He’s 9-0 in the final at the Australian Open and 21-11 overall in Grand Slam finals. Djokovic is 4-1 in his last five slam finals and 9-2 since the start of the 2017 season. He’s dropped just one set in this tournament, and that came in the second round.

The only final for Tsitsipas was at the 2021 French Open, where he lost to Djokovic in five sets after leading 2-0. The Greek native took the first set in a tiebreaker at Roland Garros, then won 6-2 in the second but managed only nine games total in the final three sets. 

Tsitsipas took a healthy lead against Djokovic at the 2021 French Open but couldn’t close it out. In the four matches since then, Djokovic has three straight-set wins and has dropped just one of nine sets. Tsitsipas may win a set on Sunday, but that’s it. Djokovic wins in four and ties Nadal with Grand Slam title No. 22, setting up quite the showdown at Roland Garros in a couple months. 

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