Toledo vs No. 3 Ohio State 2022 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Toledo vs No. 3 Ohio State | NCAAF Odds & Matchup Stats

Toledo head coach Jason Candle grew up in a house of Ohio State fans, but he’s hoping his Toledo Rockets at least have some fan support on Saturday night when they visit the No. 3 Buckeyes, who are huge favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Toledo at Ohio State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, 7 PM ET
  • Where: Ohio Stadium
  • TV: FOX
  • Stream: Fox Sports Go
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: OSU -31.5 (total 62.5)

Series History

Ohio State leads 3-0. Toledo’s most recent meeting with Ohio State was its best chance for a victory in the series, a 27-22 defeat at Ohio Stadium on Sept. 10, 2011. Toledo held a 22-21 lead until late in the third quarter. On their final possession, the Rockets drove down to the OSU 16-yard line before getting stopped on downs with 48 seconds left.

Why Bet on Toledo?

Toledo is 2-0 for the first time since 2017. The Rockets went 11-3 and won the MAC Championship title that season.  They come off a 55-10 rout of UMass. Sophomore quarterback Dequan Finn threw for a touchdown and ran for two more. Finn completed 12-of-26 passes for 177 yards and added a team-best 74 yards rushing. Through two games, Finn has totaled 388 yards passing and three touchdowns and leads the Rockets with 138 rushing yards and three scores.

The Rockets held UMass to 253 yards of total offense, including just 48 passing yards. The last time Toledo held an opponent to fewer than 100 passing yards was Bowling Green last season when UT held the Falcons to 67 passing yards. The Rockets’ 45-point margin of victory was their largest since a 45-0 victory against Murray State on Sept. 14, 2019.

Through two games, Toledo ranks in the national top 10 in five defensive categories: scoring (T-2nd/5.0), passing efficiency (2nd/66.85), passing yards allowed (2nd-58.0), first downs allowed (3rd/20) and total defense (4th/183.0). The Rockets are No. 1 in the Mid-American Conference in all those categories. On offense, Toledo ranks first in the MAC in scoring (46.0/16th nationally) and rushing offense (230.0/22nd).

Saturday will be the Rockets’ highest ranked opponent since 1998 when they played the then-No. 1 Buckeyes in Columbus. Toledo is 6-14 vs. the Big Ten, with victories over Purdue (3), Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State. Saturday will be Toledo’s first game against a Big Ten opponent since its 2011 matchup with the Buckeyes.

Toledo is 9-19 all-time vs. teams ranked in the Top 25. The highest ranked opponent ever defeated by Toledo was No. 9 Pittsburgh in 2003. More recently, Toledo came very close to knocking off No. 7/8 Notre Dame in South Bend last year, losing in the final minute, 32-29.

Game Trends

  • Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • Rockets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Rockets are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. MAC.
  • Buckeyes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Expert Prediction

  • Ohio State 48, Toledo 23
 
 

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