Toronto vs. Tampa Bay NHL Betting Analysis & Picks

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay | NHL Betting Analysis & Picks

There are no NBA games on Monday night opposite the college basketball national championship game between North Carolina and Kansas, but there is an excellent hockey matchup and potential first-round playoff preview between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts are short favorites on the NHL odds.

How to Bet Maple Leafs at Lightning NHL Hockey Odds & TV Info

  • When: Monday, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Amalie Arena, Tampa
  • TV: NHL Network
  • Stream:
  • Radio:
  • Opening NHL Lines: Lightning -130 (total 6.5)

Season Series

The teams have split two meetings in Toronto this season. They last played Dec. 9 and Tampa Bay won 5-3. Steven Stamkos scored early and set up Tampa Bay’s final three goals – he’s from the Toronto area. The short-handed Lightning were without four significant players in Nikita Kucherov (lower body), Brayden Point (upper body), Anthony Cirelli (upper body) and defenseman Erik Cernak (foot). Ondrej Palat scored twice and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Taylor Raddysh added goals for Tampa Bay. Andrei Vasilevskiy made 35 saves. Ondrej Kase had two goals, William Nylander also scored and Jack Campbell made 22 saves for the Maple Leafs.

Why Bet on Toronto?

Toronto is on a four-game winning streak following a 6-3 win in Philadelphia on Saturday. Auston Matthews scored one of the six goals, his fifth consecutive contest with a tally, to boost his lead in the NHL’s 2021-22 Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy race. Matthews (51-37—88 in 63 GP), now three goals shy of matching the single-season franchise record, required the second-fewest games among active players to reach 250 career tallies (250-189—439 in 397 GP).

Morgan Rielly recorded three points via a goal and two assists. He assisted on goals by Auston Matthews and Pierre Engvall before striking for one of his own against Carter Hart. Rielly has now put up nine goals and 58 points across 68 games played. He has nine points over his last four games.

Mitch Marner had a pair of assists to extend his points streak to nine games. Marner has 28 goals and 81 points in just 59 games as he is on pace for 100 points this season. Wayne Simmonds snapped a 32-game goalless drought Saturday. He hadn’t scored since Dec. 14. Forward Nicholas Abruzzese played 9:05 in his NHL debut after signing an entry-level contract March 26. Toronto selected Abruzzese in the fourth round (No. 124) of the 2019 NHL Draft.

Jack Campbell stopped 29-of-32 shots in his return from injury and will start Monday. Campbell has a 25-9-4 record this season with a 2.66 GAA and .914 SV% in 41 appearances.

“I definitely felt like myself and just having fun and competing and playing my game,” Campbell said. “There’s obviously some details I have to keep clearing up, but I really liked the game from the boys in front of me, and I liked my game, so I just have to keep building from it. Just being healthy is huge. Everybody isn’t always 100 percent, so it’s a part of the game and it’s a tough game. It was definitely nice to hit a reset button, work on some details and work hard in the gym. We have a wonderful staff, whether it’s the medical team or the strength coaches to get me in good shape. It’s just great to be back and competing again with the guys.”

Forward William Nylander (illness) didn’t practice on Sunday and it is unclear at this time if he will be available Monday. Nylander seven goals and 17 points in his past 17 outings, including two goals and three helpers during a three-game point streak. He has a career-high 64 points in 68 matches this campaign.

Defenseman Jake Muzzin (concussion) is expected to play at some point during Toronto’s current road trip, but he won’t return to the lineup on Monday. Muzzin has been sidelined since Feb. 21 and has 12 points, 61 shots, 53 blocks and 84 hits in 41 matches this season.

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Lightning had a four-game winning streak snapped Saturday in a 5-4 home shootout loss to Montreal, a sizable upset.  Tampa Bay handed leads of 2-0, 3-1 and 4-3 to backup goaltender Brian Elliott.

“Mentally, a lot of really bad mental mistakes,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. “We’ve got to fight through that, It’s a tough league, and anybody can beat anybody.”

Nikita Kucherov posted three points via a goal and two assists in the loss. Kucherov notched assists on goals by Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point in the first and second periods, respectively, while also scoring a goal of his own against Jake Allen midway through the second period. Overall this season, Kucherov has posted 12 goals and 43 points in 33 games.

Stamkos scored the game’s opening goal at 8:57 of the first period. He has scored 10 points (five goals, five assists) in a six-game point streak. Stamkos has 32 goals and 76 points in 67 games. Point scored a power-play goal in the defeat. Point has scored in three straight games and has nine points (four goals, five assists) during a six-game point streak. He is delivering at a point-per-game pace (54 in 54) for just the second time in his career.

It should be Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for this one. He allowed two goals on 23 shots in Friday’s 5-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks. The 27-year-old netminder has now won three straight games, improving his record to 35-14-4 with a 2.37 goals-against-average and a .919 save percentage.

Tampa Bay is on a five-game point streak (4-0- 1), tied for its third longest of the season (longest: 7-0-2 Oct. 26-Nov. 18). The Lightning have scored multiple power-play goals in three of their last five games and at least one power-play goal in four of the last five, netting eight PPGs over that stretch (8-for-16, 50%). Tampa Bay and Toronto rank tied for fourth in the overall NHL standings, each with 93 points, and tied for second in the Atlantic Division.

The teams are facing off at Amalie Arena for the first time since Feb. 25, 2020, a 4-3 Maple Leafs victory. The Lightning have dropped three of their last four overall to Toronto. Monday is the 50th all-time meeting between the two teams in Tampa.

Game Trends

  • Maple Leafs are 5-1 in their last 6 Monday games.
  • Maple Leafs are 5-1 in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Maple Leafs are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Lightning are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Lightning are 62-20 in their last 82 vs. Atlantic.
  • Lightning are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a favorite.
  • Lightning are 37-15 in their last 52 Monday games.

Expert Prediction

  • Lightning 4, Leafs 3

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