No. 15 Iowa State vs. No. 20 Texas

No. 15 Iowa State vs. No. 20 Texas | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Written by on November 25, 2020

Huge game in the Big 12 on Black Friday in the USA as No. 15 Iowa State can punch its ticket to the conference title game with a win at No. 20 Texas, which also still has a path to reach the Big 12 title tilt with a victory. The Horns are short favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Iowa State at Texas NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Friday, noon ET
  • Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
  • TV: ABC
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Texas -1.5 (total 57)

Last Meeting

In 2019, Texas lost 23-21 at Iowa State. Connor Assalley kicked a 36-yard field goal as time expired. Brock Purdy had 354 yards passing and two TDs, and he led the Cyclones 63 yards in three minutes to set up Assalley’s winner. Iowa State, a favorite over Texas for the first time, picked up just their third win over the Longhorns in 17 tries despite blowing a 13-point lead. Sam Ehlinger gave Texas a 21-20 lead with a brilliant 7-yard TD pass to Malcom Epps on fourth down with 5:37 to go. Ehlinger had 273 yards and three TDs for Texas.

Why Bet on Iowa State? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

For the second time in three years, Iowa State (6-2) has ripped off a string of six conference wins in seven games. When they did it in 2018, a loss to Texas kept Matt Campbell’s Cyclones out of the conference title game.

ISU, alone atop the Big 12, routed Kansas State 45-0 last week. Brock Purdy passed for 236 yards and three touchdowns in Iowa State’s most lopsided win over the Wildcats in 77 years. The Cyclones hadn’t had such a wide winning margin against the Wildcats since they beat them 48-0 in 1943. It was their biggest win over a Big 12 opponent since beating Kansas 45-0 three years ago.

Purdy completed 10 of his first 12 passes for 156 yards to six receivers and all three of his touchdowns. Breece Hall was Iowa State’s leading rusher with 135 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. Hall ran for touchdowns of 33 and 21 yards as the Cyclones pushed the lead to 35-0 before half.

Hall is one of four FBS players since 1996 to have 100+ rushing yards and 1+ rushing touchdown in each of his season’s first eight games (LaDainian Tomlinson, TCU, 2000; Troy Davis, Iowa State, 1996; Tiki Barber, Virginia, 1996). He is the first Cyclone to post 100-yard games against every conference opponent. Hall has scored in each of ISU’s eight games, tying for the second-longest streak in school history.

Hall is second nationally in rushing TDs (15) and first nationally with six multi-TD rush games. He’s rushed for over 100 yards vs. every Big 12 team in career. Behind Hall, ISU leads the Big 12 in rushing yards per game (205.2) and is one of four teams nationally to score at least two rushing TDs in every game played (minimum 5 games played).

Purdy is the winningest QB in ISU history against league competition. He is now 17-6 vs. conference teams with at least one victory over every member. Purdy owns/shares 23 school records.

ISU is 25-5 under Campbell when leading at halftime, and 27-5 when leading after three quarters. The Cyclones have guaranteed a winning overall season and a winning conference season for the fourth-straight season for the first time in the modern era (1928-present).

Why Bet on Texas? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Texas (5-2) has been off since a 17-13 home win over West Virginia on Nov. 7 – the Horns were supposed to visit Kansas last week but that was moved to Dec. 12 due to COVID-19 issues. If the Longhorns still hope to find a way into the Big 12 championship game, they must win every game remaining. That starts with the toughest one of the three left on the slate, as the Cyclones look impressive coming off their blowout win of Kansas State.

Texas will honor its 2020 senior class on Friday as it’s UT’s home finale. Texas has won its last two senior day contests. Last season, the Longhorns bested Texas Tech, 49-24, and in 2018 they defeated then-No. 18 Iowa State, 24-10.

Texas holds a 9-9 record against top-25 foes during Tom Herman’s three seasons as head coach. The Longhorns are 8-5 against ranked opponents since the start of the 2018 season after going just 1-4 against top-25 teams in 2017, Herman’s first season in charge.

Herman’s teams across his head coaching career are 11-1 (8-1 at Texas) when given more than one week to prepare for an opponent. That includes a 5-0 mark since the start of the 2019 season. In 2020, Texas is 2-0 in such instances. Including Herman’s two seasons at Houston, his teams have scored 419 points (38.1 ppg) and allowed 263 (23.9 ppg) when Herman’s teams are coming off at least one extra week of preparation.

The Longhorns are 14-3 against the Cyclones all-time, and 8-1 when the teams face off at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas has outscored Iowa State by 120 points in nine all-time meetings in Austin, a margin of 13.3 points per game. UT’s 0.824 winning percentage against Iowa State is its second-best mark against any current or former member of the Big 12 Conference.

Game Trends

  • Cyclones are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.
  • Cyclones are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
  • Longhorns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
  • Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
  • Longhorns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
  • Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Texas.

Expert College Football Prediction

Texas 30, Iowa State 27


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