Updated National Championship Odds After Week 14

Updated National Championship Odds After Week 14

Written by on December 7, 2022

There were two upsets in conference championship weekend with both No. 3 TCU and No. 4 USC going down. The Frogs, though, are in the College Football Playoff for the first time and stayed at No. 3 and are joined by No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan and No. 4 Ohio State. Let’s look at the updated odds to win the national title.

NCAAF National Title Odds

Georgia is the -140 favorite to repeat as national champion and faces Ohio State (+350) in the Peach Bowl semifinal. The game will be played in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium between the Bulldogs and Buckeyes.  Georgia and Ohio State have met only once with the Bulldogs coming out on top in the 1993 Citrus Bowl, 21-14.

The Dawgs lost in the SEC title game last year but won it this time, 50-30 over LSU. The Tigers generated 549 yards of offense, 502 through the air, striking for multiple big plays against Georgia’s highly-rated defense. But the Bulldogs hunkered down when they had to. Georgia has now captured 14 SEC championships and improved to 4-6 in the SEC Championship Game.

The Bulldogs have won 15 straight going back to last season’s CFP semifinal/Capital One Orange Bowl win over No. 2 Michigan. This is the 2nd SEC title in the Kirby Smart era (the first since 2017) as the Bulldogs are now 79-15 in his seven seasons at the helm. Georgia is now 9-2 all-time as the No. 1 ranked CFP team including 4-0 in 2022. UGA quarterback Stetson Bennett is a Heisman finalist but won’t win it.

Georgia will be making its third appearance in the CFP and extend the nation’s longest active bowl streak to 26 straight years.  The Bulldogs are 35-21-3 all-time in bowls, and the appearances and victories rank second nationally.

Ohio State is led by QB CJ Stroud, a Heisman finalist and possible No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Buckeyes were beaten soundly by Michigan in the Big Ten title game but snuck into the playoff with USC’s loss.

Stroud has thrown for 3,340 yards and 37 touchdowns with just six interceptions so far in 2022. He has completed 66.2 percent of his passes and has already been named the Big Ten Conference’s Quarterback of the Year and the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year. Stroud is first nationally in quarterback efficiency rating (176.25) and tied for first with 37 TD passes.

Ohio State has a record seven Heisman Trophy winners (tied with Notre Dame) and it has had seven additional Heisman Trophy finalists, including five finalists in the last five years. Stroud is the first Ohio State player to be a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist. Prior to 1982, only the Heisman winner was invited to New York so there was no such thing as a Heisman finalist.

This year’s semifinal game at the Peach Bowl will mark Ohio State’s fifth CFP appearance. Only Alabama (seven) and Clemson (six) have more. The Buckeyes won semifinal games in 2014-15 and 2020-21.

Michigan (+290) had no trouble with Purdue in the Big Ten title game and is in the playoff for the second year in a row. It will be the first-ever match-up between U-M and TCU (+1600), and it will be the 50th bowl game in the 143-year history of the Michigan Football program.

This will be the Wolverines first matchup with a Big 12 Conference program since 2013, a 31-14 loss to Kansas State in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Led by first-year head coach Sonny Dykes, the Horned Frogs have posted a 12-1 record with its only blemish coming in a 31-28 OT loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game.

TCU has a potent offensive attack led by quarterback Max Duggan, the 2022 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award winner and Heisman finalist, who ranks ninth in the NCAA in pass efficiency and is tied for second among Power 5 quarterbacks with 16 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards. The Horned Frogs list sixth nationally in scoring offense (40.3 avg.) and 16th in total offense with an average of 473.0 yards per contest.

The Horned Frogs will play in their first bowl game since the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl, a 10-7 overtime win against Cal. TCU was selected to the 2020 Texas Bowl versus Arkansas, but the game was canceled. TCU is the first school from the state of Texas to make the College Football Playoff and just the second team (Michigan, 2021) to be in the CFP after starting the season unranked.

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