Don’t Miss Out! Updated Kentucky Derby Lines & Field Analysis Revealed

The 2024 Kentucky Derby is just a few days away. In this Derby blog, we discuss the expected pace of the race, which horse is likely to grab the early lead, the pressers and the closers, and then we provide info on how to use pace to bet the ponies.

As Churchill Downs gears up for the 150th Run for the Roses, don’t miss out on in-depth betting analysis with our Kentucky Derby lines and expert pace predictions from MyBookie.

Kentucky Derby Betting Lines for the Updated Field: Road to the Derby | MyBookie Churchill Downs Betting Preview of the 2 Fastest Minutes of Sports

2024 Kentucky Derby Field

Pacesetter: Fierceness

Johnny V and Todd Pletcher aren’t going to fool around. Fierceness knows one way to run and that’s on the lead. Velasquez will send Fierceness right to the front. Even if another horse wants the lead, Fierceness will be the pacesetter.

The morning line chalk broke the maiden on the lead, won the BC Juvenile behind half a length at the first call, and blew away the competition in the Florida Derby while going gate to wire.

Pacesetter
Fierceness | Kentucky Derby Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

Best Pressers: Forever Young and Just a Touch

Two runner should pressure Fierceness. The first is UAE Derby winner and undefeated Forever Young. The Japanese horse has as much talent as Fierceness, relaxes about a length off pacesetters, and has the closing kick to get it done.

Forever Young is a top class horse sired by sired by Real Steele and out of Forever Darling, a Congrats broodmare. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is known as one of the best horseman in the world.

Just a Touch did all the running in the Bluegrass Stakes and came up short to second choice Sierra Leone. The Brad Cox runner won’t be far off the pace, but it remains to be seen if jockey Florent Geroux decides to pressure Fierceness or stay away from that one.

Best Pressers
Forever Young and Just a Touch | Kentucky Derby Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

Top Closers: Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom

The top two closers in the race are Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. Both have fantastic closing kicks. Sierra Leone has done nothing wrong.

Neither has Catching Freedom. Although, to be fair, Catching Freedom may have caught a closers bias when winning the Louisiana Derby. Sierra Leone got to run down Just a Touch after wickedly fast fractions.

Top Closers
Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom | Kentucky Derby Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

Using Pace to Bet the 2024 Kentucky Derby

If horseplayers believe Fierceness gets zero pace pressure after breaking from the gate, then there’s no reason to go against the chalk. If Fierceness sees daylight, he’ll be long gone. He’s easily the fastest horse in the race.

But if horseplayers believe Forever Young has the talent to stick with Fierceness, lie about a half a length to a length off, then the Japanese horse is the best. Forever Young is already class tested and is as talented as the favorite.

Betting Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom means horseplayers believe Fierceness gets into some sort of speed duel that compromises pressers Forever Young and Just a Touch. Closers require luck to win the Kentucky Derby because there are 20 horses. So both Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom must gets some good luck on Saturday to pull off the win. 

150th Run for the Roses
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