AL Wild Card Game Yankees at Red Sox

AL Wild Card Game: Yankees at Red Sox | MLB Betting Analysis & Prediction

For the fourth time in their storied history but first ever in a wild-card game, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will meet in the MLB postseason. It’s a winner-take-all matchup to advance to the ALDS on Tuesday night from Boston. The Yankees are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Yankees at Red Sox MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

New York clinched a wild-card spot with Sunday’s 1-0 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Aaron Judge delivered an RBI single in bottom of the ninth off Rays relief ace Andrew Kittredge. Yanks closer Chapman allowed a walk and struck out two in a scoreless inning to earn the win. Chapman ended the regular season having allowed six runs in his last 26.2 innings since the All-Star break. He has a 3.36 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 97:38 K:BB across 56.1 innings overall while serving as the Yankees’ closer.

Third baseman Gio Urshela sustained a bruised thigh in Sunday’s win and was removed from the game in the top of the ninth inning, but he should be considered day-to-day ahead of Tuesday’s contest. The 29-year-old went hitless in three at-bats prior to his removal Sunday.

Infielder and former AL batting champion DJ LeMahieu was placed on the 10-day injured list with a hip injury before Sunday’s game. Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters that LeMahieu has also been dealing with a sports hernia, which will require surgery at the conclusion of the season. The Yankees’ most valuable player in each of the past two seasons, LeMahieu posted a .268/.349/.362 slash line (97 OPS+) in 150 games this year, with 24 doubles, 10 homers and 57 RBIs. He might be able to return for the ALCS if the Yankees get that far.

Rougned Odor broke a 0-for-18 slide with his leadoff single to start the Yankees rally in the bottom of the ninth — in the starting lineup due to LeMahieu being out. Gleyber Torres served as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter this weekend.

Ace Gerrit Cole (16-8) will get the start on the mound. Cole yielded five runs in six innings Wednesday in a no-decision versus the Blue Jays. He finished the regular season with a 3.23 ERA and a 243/41 K/BB ratio in 181 1/3 innings. Cole pitched well through five innings in his last start in Boston, when he held the Red Sox scoreless into the sixth before Rafael Devers took him deep. In 13 career postseason starts, Cole has a 2.68 ERA including two wins for the Yankees in last year’s playoffs.

Since the wild-card game began in 2012, the Yankees are 2-1 in the one-game format, and they also advanced as a wild card last year in a best-of-three series as part of an expanded pandemic playoffs. Cole lost the only wild-card game he has started, 4-0, to the Chicago Cubs in 2015 when he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox earned the top wild-card spot with Sunday’s 7-5 comeback win in Washington. Rafael Devers launched a pair of home runs — Devers put the Red Sox on the scoreboard with a solo shot to center field off Joan Adon in the fourth inning. He also had an RBI single in the seventh inning and capped off a four-hit performance with a go-ahead two-run homer off righty Kyle Finnegan in the ninth inning. The 24-year-old third baseman put together a phenomenal 2021 campaign, finishing with a.279/.352/.538 triple-slash line with 101 runs scored, a career-high 38 home runs and 113 RBIs.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora announced after Sunday’s game that All-Star DH J.D. Martinez (ankle) is questionable for Tuesday. Martinez left Sunday’s regular season finale after he sprained his ankle when he tripped over second base while heading out to this position in left field. Martinez is usually a designated hitter but was playing right field in an NL park against the Nationals. Martinez finished the regular season with 28 homers and 99 RBIs, as well as an AL-leading 42 doubles.

It’s Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA) on the mound. Eovaldi pitched four-hit ball for six innings and combined with three relievers on a 6-0 shutout of the Orioles on Wednesday. Eovaldi showed a little more zip on his fastball tonight than he had in recent outings and won for the first time since Aug. 11.

Eovaldi leads pitchers and ranks 6th among all AL players in FanGraphs’ WAR (5.6). He also leads qualified AL pitchers in BB/9.0 IP (1.73), BB% (4.6%), & FIP (2.78) and ranks 2nd in SO/BB (5.57) & HR/9.0 IP (0.74). The Sox have won 7 of his last 8 starts.

Under the current 10-team playoff format, which began in 2012, the Red Sox had never played in the wild-card game. They won the AL East in each of their 4 postseason appearances during that time (2013, ‘16-18). Seven teams have won a World Series without winning their division, including the 2004 Red Sox and 2 teams that played in a Wild Card Game (SF-2014, WSH-2019). Home teams are 7-9 in Wild Card Games (4-4 in the AL, 3-5 in the NL).

Game Trends

  • Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 overall.
  • Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 games following a win.
  • Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 games following an off day.
  • Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.
  • Yankees are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

Expert prediction

  • Yankees 4, Red Sox 3

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