Astros vs Twins ALDS Odds and Game 3 Prediction

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The Minnesota Twins accomplished what they wanted to in Houston: A split of the first two games of the ALDS. The series shifts to the Twin Cities on Tuesday with the Twins as short favorites on the MLB odds to take a 2-1 lead. | 2023 MLB Playoffs Expert Analysis | MyBookie Sportsbook | AL Division Series Game 3: Astros vs Twins

How to Bet Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 4:07 PM ET
Where: Target Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Cristian Javier/Sonny Gray
TV: FOX
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.foxsports.com/live
Opening MLB Lines: Twins -125, Astros +115 (total 8)

Why Bet on Houston?

The Astros took Game 1 behind Justin Verlander but lost Game 2 at home on Sunday, 6-2. Framber Valdez was hit hard, giving up five runs on seven hits across his 4 1/3 innings of work. Valdez struck out five batters on the evening while issuing three free passes. Valdez would be lined up to get the ball again in a pivotal Game 5 on Friday in Houston, provided the series goes the distance.

Yordan Alvarez homered for the third time in the first two games of the ALDS on Sunday. Alvarez finally got the Astros on the board with a 376-foot two-run blast off of Brock Stewart in the eighth inning, pulling the Astros to within four runs at 6-2. That would be his lone hit in four at-bats. The 26-year-old slugger is locked in at the plate, hitting .429 (3-for-7) with three homers, five RBI and four runs scored through his first two games of the postseason.

The Astros’ 12-game home winning streak in the ALDS came to an end, and they’ll head to Minneapolis for Games 3 and 4 needing one win to ensure another game at Minute Maid Park. Houston has been tough on the road this year, going 51-30, including 14-3 in its last 17 games away from home.

When a Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format has been tied after two games, the club heading home for Games 3 and 4 has won the series 28 of 42 times (67 percent).

It’s Cristian Javier on the mound here. Javier pitched three-hit ball for six shutout innings in his regular-season finale on Oct. 1 as the Astros defeated the Diamondbacks 8-1. The win, in combination with the Rangers’ loss, gave Houston the AL West title. It was just the third time in 3 1/2 months that Javier completed six innings, and it was the first time since June 15 that he didn’t allow a run. He ended the regular season 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA in 162 innings. In his final seven regular-season starts, Javier was 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA in 34.2 innings, with 44 strikeouts and 17 walks even with that good outing vs. Arizona.

Javier will look to repeat his postseason success from one year ago, when he posted a 0.71 ERA over three outings (two starts), spanning 12 2/3 innings, for the World Series champs. In three career postseasons, Javier has compiled a 2.20 ERA (8 ER in 32 2/3 IP). Javier didn’t face the Twins this season.

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Why Bet on Minnesota?

Former Astro Carlos Correa went 3-for-4 with two doubles, three RBI and a walk on Sunday night, leading the Twins to a 6-2 victory in Game 2. Correa got the scoring started with a run-scoring double off of Framber Valdez in the opening inning. He then increased that advantage with a two-run single into center in the fifth inning that made it a 5-0 ballgame. The 29-year-old shortstop also smacked a one-out double in the seventh inning, but he was cut down at the plate attempting to score.

With his three RBI, he surpassed Derek Jeter and David Ortiz to move into fourth place on the all-time MLB postseason leaderboard for RBI with 63. He is batting 8-for-15 (.533) with three doubles and four RBI through his first four 2023 playoff games. Kyle Farmer slugged a two-run homer in the second inning to increase the Twins early advantage to 3-0. That would wind up being his only hit in three at-bats on the evening. Edouard Julien delivered a pinch-hit RBI single with the bases loaded in the seventh inning. So far during the postseason, Julien is hitting .273 (3-for-11) with a run scored and an RBI through his first four games.

Notable individual numbers vs. Houston this season (regular and postseason): Alex Kirilloff is 5-for-11 (.455) with six walks (.667 OBP). Ryan Jeffers is 7-for-15 (.467) with a double, a home run and four RBI. Willi Castro is 4-for-11 (.364) with one walk (.417 OBP). Christian Vázquez is 4-for-10 (.400) with three RBI and two walks (.500 OBP). Donovan Solano is 7-for-18 (.389) with five RBI and three walks (.476 OBP).

It’s right-hander Sonny Gray on the mound here. Gray was outstanding in last Wednesday’s clinching victory over the Blue Jays in Game 2 of their Wild Card Series, scattering five hits and two walks over five shutout innings. The 33-year-old had six strikeouts and all five of the hits that he allowed in the ballgame were singles. Perhaps his biggest play of the night came on the final out that he recorded — picking off Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from second base when the Jays had two runners in scoring position and Bo Bichette at the dish in the fifth inning. Gray generated 11 swings and misses on 85 pitches, registering a CSW of 28 percent.

Counting that appearance, Gray has a 1.88 ERA in 12 starts since the beginning of August. Gray faces Houston for the third time this year and went 0-0, 2.77 ERA (13.0 IP, 4 ER) with four walks and 16 strikeouts in the first two starts. He had a career-high 13 strikeouts in 7.0 innings pitched on April 7 in the Twins‘ 3-2 win over the Astros in the Home Opener. Gray also recorded a quality start on May 29 at Houston; pitched 6.0 innings and allowed three runs on five hits in a 7-5 Twins’ victory.

He faced Houston in the postseason once previously and took a no-decision while pitching in the 2017 ALDS with the Yankees, allowing one run over five innings.

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Astros vs Twins Expert Prediction

Twins 4, Astros 3

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