Blue Jays vs. Orioles: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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The Baltimore Orioles have largely owned the Toronto Blue Jays this season, and if the Jays have any shot of winning the AL East then they probably must sweep three games in Baltimore starting Tuesday. But the Orioles are favored on the game and MLB odds.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 20: Monday August 21 – Sunday August 27, 2023

How to Bet Toronto at Baltimore MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Camden Yards
Probable pitchers (away/home): Yusei Kikuchi/Grayson Rodriguez
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Orioles -120, Blue Jays +100 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Toronto?

Toronto is 8.5 games back of Baltimore in the division so that’s probably a pipe dream. The Jays now have to focus solely on a wild card spot as Seattle has gotten hot and into the mix. Toronto comes off a 10-3 win in Cincinnati on Sunday to take two of three vs. the Reds. Bo Bichette went 2-for-5 with a triple, a solo home run and two runs scored.

In only his second game since an 18-day stint on the injured list due to patellar tendinitis in his right knee, Bichette proved his health with a triple in the first. He then homered in the fourth as he extended a modest hit streak to eight games. Bichette holds a .320 batting average, which ranks second in the American League, and raised his league-leading hit total to 147. Belt went 2-for-5 with two homers, three RBI and two runs scored in the win. It was the second multi-homer game of the season for Belt, who’s up to 13 home runs in his inaugural season with the Blue Jays.

Star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero was removed ahead of the bottom of the fourth inning of Sunday’s game due to left middle finger discomfort. He went 1-for-2 with a walk and a run scored prior to his departure. Guerrero’s injury may not be a major concern, as the Blue Jays took a 9-2 lead into the bottom of the fourth and might have chosen to pull him early as a matter of precaution.

The Blue Jays are 17-7 in their past 24 road games. Overall this year, Blue Jays hitters are 2nd in the AL with a .263 road batting average, ranks 2nd in road OBP (.331), 3rd in road OPS (.754) and 4th in road SLG (.423). The pitching staff ranks 5th in the AL in road ERA (3.91), 9th in road WHIP (1.28), and 10th in road opponents’ AVG (.250).

It’s lefty Yusei Kikuchi in the mound here. Kikuchi (9-4, 3.44 ERA) came away with a no-decision last Tuesday in the Blue Jays’ 2-1 win over the Phillies, allowing one run on four hits over six innings. He struck out seven without walking a batter. The southpaw delivered his fourth straight quality start on an efficient 84 pitches (58 strikes). Since the All-Star break, Kikuchi has a stellar 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 36:8 K:BB through 35 innings.

Kikuchi has faced the Orioles 3 times this season, going 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA (6 ER/15.1 IP). Over 11 appearances against Baltimore in his career, he has posted a 3.60 ERA (6 ER/15.0 IP).

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Why Bet on Baltimore?

Baltimore would be the AL’s top seed if the playoff began today and it enters on a three-game winning streak after finishing a sweep in Oakland on Sunday, 12-1. Ryan Mountcastle went 3-for-5 with a three-run home run. Mountcastle has hit safely in 17 of 18 games in August, batting .403 (27-for-67) with four homers, 14 RBI and 14 runs scored this month. The first baseman is up to 17 homers, 60 RBI, 55 runs scored, three stolen bases and a .275/.321/.481 slash line through 93 contests overall.

AL Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson went 4-for-5 with a home run, a triple, two doubles, two RBI and three runs scored. Henderson had a chance at the cycle, needing a single in his eighth-inning at-bat, but he hit an RBI double instead. He is 12-for-26 (.462) with six extra-base hits over his last six contests. The infielder is at a .249/.331/.484 slash line with 21 homers, 61 RBI, 69 runs scored, six stolen bases, 19 doubles and six triples through 113 games overall.

Closer Félix Bautista ranks second in the AL and fourth in MLB with 32 saves. Bautista has secured a win or save in 40 of his 53 appearances (75.5%) this year. Bautista’s 16.82 K/9 (109 K/58.1 IP) would be the third-best by a reliever in MLB history (min. 50.0 IP).

The Orioles have gone 79 consecutive series of at least two decisions (no ties) without being swept. That is the most consecutive series without getting swept in O’s history (since 1954) and fifth-longest such streak in MLB history. The Birds have not been swept in a series of at least two games since May 13-15, 2022 at Detroit (0-3), and not at home in a series of at least two games since August 27-29, 2021 vs. Tampa Bay (0-3).

It’s rookie Grayson Rodriguez (5.44 ERA) on the mound. Rodriguez improved to 3-3 in last Monday’s 4-1 win over the Padres, allowing one run on three hits and one walk while striking out six batters over seven innings. Rodriguez worked five scoreless frames before Garrett Cooper tagged him for a solo shot in the sixth. Though the victory was his first since May 9, Rodriguez has been pitching well of late. Over his past five starts, he’s posted a 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHP and 26:9 K:BB over 30.2 innings.

Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA in two starts this year against Toronto.

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Expert Prediction

Orioles 6, Blue Jays 4

AL East Standings

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