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Blue Jays vs Yankees | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on April 13, 2022

American League Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole didn’t look the part in his season opener for the Yankees but is back on the mound Wednesday in a stellar pitching matchup against Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays. The Yanks are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Toronto at New York MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jose Berrios/Gerrit Cole                                
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio:
Opening MLB Lines: Yankees -130, Blue Jays +120 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Toronto?

The Jays are without catcher Danny Jansen after placing him on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain. Jansen tweaked his oblique on a swing over the weekend and didn’t make enough progress to avoid an IL stint.  Jansen was 4 for 7 with two home runs in the opening series against Texas. It’s not uncommon for oblique issues to keep a player out of action for multiple weeks. To take his spot on the roster, the Jays called up catcher Tyler Heineman.

Heineman returns to the bigs for the first time since 2020. He played with the Marlins and Giants between 2019-20, picking up 62 cumulative plate appearances in 20 games. The switch-hitting backstop only hit .208/.288/.302 in that very brief action, but he owns a solid .284/.352/.415 line in parts of six Triple-A campaigns. Heineman managed a .264/.345/.310 showing in 41 games with the Cardinals’ and Phillies’ top affiliates last season. Toronto will use some combination of Alejandro Kirk, Zack Collins and Heineman behind the dish.

It’s Jose Berrios on the mound here. He’s supposed to be the team’s ace but allowed four runs on three hits and walked two over 1/3 of an inning of Friday’s no-decision against the Rangers.  The disastrous outing began when the first batter Berrios faced, Brad Miller, sent a 85 mph curve out of the ballpark, putting the Rangers up 1-0. Then, the following sequence of events took place: walk, single, wild pitch, walk, single, groundout, hit by pitch. The right-hander threw only 18 of 34 pitches for strikes before getting the hook.

However, his track record speaks for itself, as in 32 starts last season, Berríos went 12-9 with a 3.52 ERA and 204 strikeouts in 192 innings. Berrios faced the Yankees twice in 2021, going 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA (5 ER/12.2 IP). He has made 5 career starts vs. NYY, keeping a 2-2 record and a 4.73 ERA (14 ER/26.2 IP) with 10 BB and 31 K.

Closer Jordan Romano has converted his 26 straight saves dating back to last season, surpassing Tom Henke (1991) for the longest streak in franchise history. He has tied Ryan Dempster for the 4th-longest streak all-time by a Canadian, trailing Eric Gagne (84 and 30) and John Axford (49).

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

The Yankees were shut out for the first time this season on Monday vs. Toronto. It marked only the 13th time since 2019 that the Yankees were shut out, the fifth-fewest in the Majors in that span, trailing only Los Angeles-NL (11), Boston (12), Minnesota (12) and Oakland (12).

Yanks starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery (knee) played catch on Tuesday. Montgomery got struck in the left knee by a comebacker during his season debut Sunday versus the Red Sox and experienced some immediate swelling, but an MRI and CT scan both came back negative for any structural damage.

Backup catcher Ben Rortvedt is expected to "significantly increase" his hitting activity this week. Rortvedt recently underwent imaging that showed no trace of the right oblique strain that he sustained back in February. He’s expected to ramp up his hitting and could be back at some point for New York later this month. Infielder DJ LeMahieu is a career .337 batter with 33 runs, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 9 homers, 27 RBI and 20 walks against Toronto. He owns the highest batting average among players with at least 100PA against the Blue Jays as a Yankee.

It’s Gerrit Cole on the mound. Cole yielded three runs over just four innings of work Friday against the Red Sox in the Yankees’ 6-5 extra-innings win. Cole seemed irritated by the start of the game being delayed by Opening Day ceremonies, and he then immediately got into hot water in the first inning, letting the first four batters reach and three of them to score. The veteran right-hander settled in after that, facing just one over the minimum the rest of the way. Cole had thrown only 68 pitches over his four frames, but after the abbreviated spring training manager Aaron Boone decided that was enough.

“Tough settling in,” Cole said. “The first four pitches were not really competitive, and I got burned on a couple of pretty good fastball locations in the first. They put some good swings on it. We were able to settle in after that and give us a chance to win.”
Cole finished 2021 at 16-8 in 30 starts, with a 3.23 ERA and 243 strikeouts in 181.1 innings, with a late-season hamstring injury likely costing him the AL Cy Young Award.

Game Trends

  • Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
  • Blue Jays are 10-3 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series.
  • Blue Jays are 21-8 in their last 29 vs. American League East.
  • Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
  • Yankees are 36-17 in their last 53 Wednesday games.
  • Yankees are 89-42 in their last 131 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Blue Jays are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Expert Prediction
Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3