Braves vs. Giants: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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The Atlanta Braves start their longest remaining road trip of the 2023 regular season Friday night as they visit the San Francisco Giants in what could be a NL playoff preview (if the Giants get there). Behind NL Cy Young contender Spencer Strider, the Braves are solid favorites on the MLB odds for Friday even though SF starts its own Cy Young contender in Logan Webb.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Giants | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 20: Monday August 21 – Sunday August 27, 2023

How to Bet Atlanta at San Francisco MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 10:15 PM ET
Where: Oracle Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Spencer Strider/Logan Webb
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+, MLB.com
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -160, Giants +140 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves continue to have the majors’ best record (82-44) and are the favorites to win the World Series. While Ronald Acuna Jr. is the NL MVP favorite and Matt Olson leads the NL with 43 homers, the hottest Atlanta hitter right now is Marcell Ozuna went 3-for-4 with a home run, a double, four RBI and two runs scored in Wednesday’s 7-0 win over the Mets. Ozuna was a triple shy of the cycle.

It was his fourth multi-hit effort in his last five games and Ozuna has four homers and seven RBI in that span. For the season, the 32-year-old is slashing .262/.334/.519 with 28 homers, 67 RBI, 62 runs scored and 18 doubles. He is one of seven Braves with at least 20 homers, by far the most such players on any team in the majors. The single-season record for 20-homer players is eight, done by the Twins in 2019.

Second baseman Ozzie Albies is eligible to be activated off the injured list Friday and probably will be as the team doesn’t believe he needs a rehab assignment. Albies tweaked his hamstring on Aug. 13. He is hitting .268 with 17 homers, 36 runs, 53 RBI, and three steals across 73 games in 2023.

Closer Raisel Iglesias has 25 saves on the year and has converted 16 straight opportunities dating to June 20. It’s the longest active streak in the National League. Iglesias has now pitched 13.0 straight scoreless innings, the third-longest streak in the N.L. behind just Derek Law (15.0 IP) of the Reds and teammate Spencer Strider (14.0 IP). Since the date of his first appearance with Atlanta, August 5 of last season, his 1.88 ERA is fifth lowest in baseball among pitchers with at least 60.0 innings.

Strider (14-4) gets the call here as he looks to boost his Cy Young chances. Strider (14-4) picked up the win in last Friday’s 4-0 home victory over the Giants, scattering one hit and one walk over seven scoreless innings. He struck out 10. The right-hander retired the first nine batters he faced before putting LaMonte Wade on with a walk to lead off the fourth inning, and that was the only frame in which Strider let a runner get into scoring position. He generated 32 called or swinging strikes among his 97 pitches as he fanned double-digit batters for the first time in August and the 10th time this season. Strider has a 3.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 227:46 K:BB through 146.1 innings this year.

Strider leads the majors in strikeouts — by a large margin — and is averaging 14.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Strider has joined John Smoltz as the only pitchers in franchise history with at least 10 double-digit strikeout games in a season (Smoltz had 12 such games in 1996). Strider also leads the NL in Fielding Independent pitching, at 2.87.

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Why bet San Francisco?

San Francisco won its first five games out of the break to get to 54-41 but has really struggled since and is now 66-61. The team did avoid a three-game sweep at Philadelphia on Wednesday with a wild 8-6 win in 10 innings. Paul DeJong had a memorable first day with the Giants with a two-run homer in the fourth inning and a two-run single in the 10th. DeJong was recently signed off waivers.

Struggling Giants closer Camilo Doval had blown a three-run lead in the ninth inning on Bryce Harper’s homer. It’s been a brutal stretch for Doval, who’s now taken four straight blown saves. He’s allowed five runs over his last two appearances while recording just one out in that span. Overall, Doval’s ERA is up to 3.09 with a 1.14 WHIP and 75:24 K:BB across 55.1 innings. He is 33-for-40 in save chances this season.

Shortstop Brandon Crawford landed on the injured list earlier this week with a forearm injury. The Giants signed DeJong as a stop-gap. Crawford won’t return before Aug. 29. Wilmer Flores leads the team in homers (18) and would be the first Giant to lead the team in home runs, and hit over .300 since C Buster Posey did so in 2014. Flores is hitting .304.

It’s ace Logan Webb (9-9, 3.36 ERA) on the hill here. Webb did not factor into the decision last Saturday in Atlanta, allowing four runs on nine hits over six innings. He struck out five. After nearly tossing a complete-game shutout in his last start, Webb came back to earth against Atlanta, tying his season high in hits allowed. The right-hander also surrendered his first home run since July 28, as Ronald Acuna tagged him for a solo shot in the fifth.

The outing ended what was an impressive stretch of play for Webb, who boasted a 2.20 ERA and a 21:2 K:BB over his previous five starts (28.2 innings). Webb leads the majors in groundball rate at 60% and is second in innings pitched at 169.

“It’s something I’m trying to be,” Webb says. “A goal of mine was to lead the league in innings this year, and that’s a goal where the team has to obviously let me keep going six or seven or eight. But it’s been awesome. They trust me, and I’m just trying to throw as many innings as I can .”

The Giants have lost six straight series, last winning one July 31-Aug. 3 vs. Arizona (3-1).

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Expert Prediction

Braves 4, Giants 3

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