Brewers vs. Cubs: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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A big series in the NL Central Division starts Monday night as the first-place Milwaukee Brewers, who have won eight games in a row, visit the second-place Chicago Cubs, who are short favorites on the MLB odds.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 21: Monday August 28 – Sunday September 3, 2023

How to Bet Milwaukee at Chicago MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 8:05 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Wade Miley/Jameson Taillon
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Cubs -120, Brewers +100 (total TBA)

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers swept out visiting San Diego 10-6 on Sunday. Since being held to three runs over three games while getting swept by the Dodgers on the last road trip, the Brewers are 8-0 and averaging 7.25 runs per game.

William Contreras went 2-for-4 with a home run, a double, a walk and two RBI in Sunday’s win. Contreras launched a solo shot in the first inning and added an RBI double in the seventh, accounting for the Brewers’ first and last runs of the game. He’s riding a seven-game hitting streak, batting .385 (10-for-26) with two homers, nine RBI, 10 runs scored and seven walks in that span. On the year, he has a .278/.355/.459 slash line with 14 long balls, 63 RBI, 63 runs scored, 31 doubles and a stolen base through 109 contests overall.

Carlos Santana needs 4 HR for 300 in his Major League career. His 296 career HR are 10th in MLB history by switch-hitters. The Brewers are 27-11 (.711) in 1-run games, the best winning percentage in the majors in such contests. Milwaukee is tied with Miami for the second-most 1-run wins in the majors behind Cincinnati (28).

Outfielder Garrett Mitchell (left shoulder subluxation), outfielder Blake Perkins (left oblique strain) and right-hander J.C. Mejía (right shoulder inflammation) hope to help down the stretch. They’re heading to the team’s training facility in Arizona to try and get back for the stretch run.

It’s lefty Wade Miley on the mound Monday. Miley did not factor into the decision last Tuesday, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk over five innings against the Twins. He struck out four. After allowing more than two runs once in his previous eight starts, Miley surrendered three earned runs for a second consecutive outing. He was tagged for a two-run homer by Christian Vazquez in the second frame, marking Miley’s third straight appearance giving up a long ball. On the year, he has a 6-3 record and a 3.18 ERA across 87.2 innings.

Miley is 9-4 with a 4.01 ERA in 17 starts (101ip, 45er) in his career against the Cubs, including a no-decision this season on 7/4 at American Family Field (5ip, 9h, 4r, 4er, 2bb, 4k, 1hr). He is 3-1 with a 4.33 ERA in 6 career starts against the Cubs at Wrigley Field (35.1ip, 17er).

Milwaukee has won four of the first seven matchups vs. the Cubs, including a four-game split at American Family Field when the clubs last met in July.

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Why Bet on Chicago?

Chicago is 9-1-1 in its last 11 series dating to July 17. The Cubs won for the fourth time in five games Sunday, 10-1 in Pittsburgh. Cody Bellinger was 3-for-5 with two doubles, five RBI, two runs scored and a steal. Bellinger’s now 4-for-10 with seven RBI in his last two games following a brief 4-for-23 (.174) slump over his prior six contests. The 28-year-old outfielder also improved to 18-for-22 on stolen base attempts this season after swiping his first bag since Aug. 6. Bellinger has 16 RBI in his last nine games and a MLB-best 53 RBI since July 1. He has reached safely in 34 of his last 38 games. Bellinger, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman are the only major leaguers to have at least a .317 average, 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases this season.

“He’s a threat that can hit for power, but with two strikes, he’s willing to just try to touch the baseball,” manager David Ross said. “It’s one of the more impressive things I’ve been able to witness in a long time, just somebody with that kind of hand-eye coordination for those balls to go the other way and find holes.”

Seiya Suzuki stayed hot with two more hits Sunday. In his past 16 games, Suzuki has hit .390 (23-for-59) with a .431 on-base percentage and .763 slugging percentage. In that stretch, he has four home runs, six doubles, two triples, 11 RBIs, 15 runs and five walks (compared to seven strikeouts) in 65 plate appearances.

The Cubs are 26-29 in games decided by two runs or fewer. Through May 21, Chicago was 4-15 in games decided by two runs or fewer, but is 22-14 in such games since then.

It’s Jameson Taillon (7-8, 5.60) on the mound Monday. Taillon allowed four runs on four hits across 5.2 innings and did not factor into the decision last Wednesday against the Tigers. He walked one and struck out six. Taillon kept the Tigers off the board for five innings, but things came undone a bit in the sixth, as he allowed three singles followed by a grand slam to Kerry Carpenter.

Taillon makes his 13th career start vs. Milwaukee and second in 2023. He is 3-6 with a 3.75 ERA (26 ER/62.1 IP) lifetime vs. the Brewers. Taillon has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 starts vs. the Brewers.

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Expert Prediction

Cubs 5, Brewers 4

NL Central Standings for Brewers vs. Cubs

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