MLB Lines and Betting Pick for Padres facing the Cubs

Dylan Cease once was one of the top pitching prospects in the Chicago Cubs’ organization before being traded years ago to the White Sox. The new San Diego Padres right-hander will face the Cubs on Wednesday as the teams conclude a three-games series at Petco Park with the Friars favored on the MLB odds.

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Chicago vs San Diego | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 2

Why Bet on Chicago Cubs?

The Cubbies are down another key reliever in Julian Merryweather. Manager Craig Counsell noted on Monday that imaging taken on Merryweather revealed a rib stress fracture in his back. That came after the right-hander was placed on the 15-day injured list on Sunday due to what was initially believed to be a right shoulder issue. The current plan calls for Merryweather (1.93 ERA through four appearances) to take the next four weeks to rest and heal before being re-evaluated.

“Julian is a valuable reliever on this team,” Counsell said. “It’s one where you’ve kind of got to close the hole around him and a lot of people are going to have to fill into that spot. It’s a significant loss, for sure. His versatility, just the quality that he brought, is going to be missed.”

Chicago’s .363 team on-base percentage is the highest in the N.L. and tied with Texas for the major league-lead. The Cubs have compiled a 12.7% walk rate, the highest in the majors and a strikeout percentage of 18.6% (66 SO), the fifth-lowest in the majors.

It’s veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 11.74) on the mound Wednesday. Hendricks didn’t factor into the decision last Friday against the Dodgers, allowing five runs on eight hits over four-plus innings. He struck out one. After allowing a pair of runs in the first inning, Hendricks held the Dodgers off the board until the fifth when he allowed three more runs before recording an out. It’s been a rough start to the campaign for the 34-year-old Hendricks — he’s allowed 10 earned runs on 17 hits through his first two starts (7.2 innings). Since 2014, only five starting pitchers have a lower walk rate than Hendricks’ 5.6 percent.

The Cubs last season went 4-3 against the Padres to claim their fourth of the last five season series vs. San Diego dating to 2018. Current Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty served in the same role for the Padres in 2023 and was a part of the San Diego organization from 2020-23.

Of Chicago’s first 32 games, none are against N.L. Central division opponents, with its first division matchup coming on May 3 when Milwaukee visits Wrigley Field. That streak of 32 games without playing a division opponent is the most to start a season in franchise history since division play started in 1969.

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Why Bet on San Diego Padres?

Robert Suarez is the Padres’ new closer this year with Josh Hader now in Houston and Suarez earned a save against the Cubs on Monday, striking out two batters in a perfect ninth inning. The Padres put up nine runs from the sixth through eighth innings to carry a one-run lead into the ninth, and they turned to Suarez to try to nail down the comeback victory. The right-hander had little trouble doing so, striking out a batter to start and end the frame and needing just 14 pitches to retire the side in order. He has allowed just one run with eight strikeouts through six innings this season.

All-Star third baseman Manny Machado isn’t playing third base yet and might not anytime soon. Machado said recently that his surgically repaired right elbow is “not 100 percent” and he’s been told by doctors he might not feel fully healthy until next season. Machado experienced some fatigue in the elbow during spring training, which has delayed his return to third base. While Padres manager Mike Shildt has indicated that Machado could play the hot corner before the end of April, Machado said that “there’s not really a timetable on it.” Machado has been playing at DH and not hitting much, while San Diego has used a combination of Tyler Wade, Graham Pauley and Eguy Rosario at third base.

San Diego is 2-2 in one-run games this season as of this writing, which is a decent sign after the Padres went 9-23 (.281) last year in 1-run games, which was the worst winning percentage in 1-run games of any team. .That 2023 season followed a 2022 campaign when the Padres led the National League in both 1-run wins (30) and extra-inning wins (12).

It’s right-hander and trade acquisition Dylan Cease on the mound for the Padres. The former Cubs prospect was acquired in mid-March from the White Sox for prospects Samuel Zavala, Steven Wilson, Jairo Iriarte and Drew Thorpe. Cease, who will earn $8 million this season, is under club control through 2025. He posted a 3.83 ERA across his first five big league seasons, including a second-place finish for the American League Cy Young Award in 2022.

This season, Cease is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts – both against the Giants. He faced them at Petco Park last Friday and came away with a no-decision, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out seven. Both free passes issued by Cease were to the leadoff batter — Jung Hoo Lee in the first inning and LaMonte Wade Jr. in the sixth — and both came around to score. Cease had two wild pitches and threw 64 of 102 pitches for strikes before exiting the mound, but he also generated 30 called or swinging strikes in his first quality start as a Padre.

“I loved the way Dylan competed the whole game,” manager Mike Shildt said. “I liked the way he got through six and gave us … more than a chance to win.”

Walks aside, Cease was happy with how he executed. His slider was devastating as ever, getting 13 whiffs on 22 swings and accounting for all seven of his strikeouts. Since his debut season in 2019, Cease has induced 889 swing-and-misses on his signature offering, third most in the Majors behind only the Nationals‘ Patrick Corbin (977) and the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (909).

Only a few Cubs have seen Cease because he had spent his entire MLB career in the AL with the White Sox after being acquired from trade via the Cubbies in July 2017.

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