Mariners vs. Rays: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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A hugely important series in the AL Wild Card race begins on Thursday night as the Seattle Mariners visit the Tampa Bay Rays – both are also chasing their respective division titles. The Mariners start ace Luis Castillo on Thursday or would be solid underdogs to consider in your MLB betting odds.

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 22: Monday September 4 – Sunday September 10, 2023

How to Bet Seattle at Tampa Bay MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Luis Castillo/Zach Littell
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Mariners -115, Rays +105 (total 7)

Why Bet on Seattle?

No team was hotter in August than Seattle but the M’s have cooled down in September. The Mariners have dropped back-to-back series for the first time since losing 2 series in a row at Baltimore (June 23-25) and vs. Washington (June 26-28). Despite that, the Mariners have won 11 of their last 14 series and hold a 14-4-1 series record over their last 19.

Earlier this week, superstar and 2022 AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez became the first player in major league history with 25 homers and 25 steals in each of his first two seasons. He has been on a tear since July 25, hitting .391 with 13 home runs, 42 RBI, 31 runs and 13 steals.

Shortstop J.P. Crawford is having a career-year at the plate, currently establishing career highs in home runs (14), walks (81), on-base percentage (.390), slugging percentage (.432), OPS (.823), OPS+ (131) and bWAR (4.5). His 4.5 bWAR is already the most by any Mariners shortstop since Alex Rodriguez in 2000 (10.4 bWAR).

One major issue for the M’s is at closer. The team traded away its previous closer Paul Sewald at the deadline to San Diego. He has been replaced by Andres Munoz but not replaced very well. Munoz (3-7) took the loss against the Reds on Tuesday, allowing an earned run on two hits without retiring a batter in the ninth inning. He has now blown two of his 11 save opportunities, taken three losses and has an ugly 1.60 WHIP across the 15 innings he’s logged since Aug. 2.

It’s ace right-hander and Cy Young contender Luis Castillo (11-7) on the mound. Castillo did not factor into the decision Saturday, allowing five runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings in an 8-7 win over the Mets. He struck out two. The 30-year-old held the Mets scoreless until a single and a hit-by-pitch preceded DJ Stewart’s three-run homer in the fourth inning. Despite Castillo’s substandard performance, he was in line for the victory before New York tied the game in the eighth. The no-decision snapped a string of four consecutive starts in which Castillo earned a win, posting a 2.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and an impressive 26:4 K:BB across 27 innings during that streak.

Castillo’s .214 opponents’ batting average ranks tied for sixth in the majors and tied 1st in the AL among qualified starting pitchers. His 3.19 ERA (60 ER, 169.1 IP) ranks 7th in the majors and 4th in the AL among qualified starting pitchers. Castillo is 0-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two career starts vs. the Rays. He faced them in Seattle on July 2 and allowed six runs and eight hits while striking out six. He gave up four runs in the third to leave his team down 6-1 but then retired nine of his next 10 batters. Castillo would end up with a no-decision as Seattle rallied to win.

“He came back out and gave us those three last innings that were huge for us to get to the back end of the bullpen and give us a chance,” catcher Tom Murphy said then.

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Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

It doesn’t sound like the Rays will get back All-Star shortstop Wander Franco this year. A special prosecutor in the Dominican Republic is investigating a second formal complaint Franco engaged in a relationship with a minor, the latest of three accusations against the 22-year-old. In the D.R., the age of consent is 18. Anyone over 18 who engages in a sexual relationship with someone younger than 18 can be charged criminally. Franco last played Aug. 12 and is on MLB paid administrative leave.

Shortstop Taylor Walls hasn’t started since Sept. 3 due to a groin injury but was feeling good enough Wednesday to be available off the bench and could start Thursday. Rookie Osleivis Basabe has been playing short in his place. Excellent reliever Jason Adam remains on the IL with an oblique strain. The Rays are hopeful that Adam will not miss more than 15 days but he’ll not be back for this series. Adam, 32, has a 4-2 record with 12 saves and a 2.67 ERA in 55 relief appearances this season.

Tampa Bay has seven players who have hit 18+ home runs this season, tied with Atlanta for the MLB lead. The previous franchise record was held by the 2019 Rays, who had five players with 18+ HR.

The Rays have won nine of their last 11 series on the heels of a 2-7-2 performance in series play from 6/12-7/26. Tampa Bay’s remaining opponents have a combined winning pct. of .547, the fourth-highest mark in the majors behind the Nationals (.557), Cardinals (.553) and Red Sox (.551).

It’s Zach Littell (3-4, 4.69) on the mound Thursday. Littell did not factor into the decision Saturday, allowing four runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings in a 7-6 loss to Cleveland. He struck out one. Littell allowed hits to four of the first eight batters he faced, leading to two early runs. The right-hander also gave up a season-high nine hits in the contest and failed to make it through at least five innings for the first time in his last seven outings.

Littell has a 6.75 ERA (16.0IP, 12ER) in his last three starts after producing a 3.00 ERA (30.0IP, 10ER) in his first seven. His lone career appearance against Seattle came earlier this season when he worked a scoreless inning of relief with a pair of strikeouts on July 2 in a 7-6 Rays loss at T-Mobile Park. Littell is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA (9.1IP, 3ER) in three games (2GS) against AL West opponents this season.

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Expert Prediction

Mariners 4, Rays 3

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