Mets vs. Braves: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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It’s already the last meeting of the season between bitter NL East rivals the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves on Wednesday as they close out a three-game series at Truist Park with Atlanta favored on the MLB odds.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 20: Monday August 21 – Sunday August 27, 2023

How to Bet New York at Atlanta MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7:20 PM ET
Where: Truist Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jose Quintana/Charlie Morton
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -190, Mets +170 (Total 9.5)

Why Bet on New York?

Outfielder Starling Marte is on the injured list and probably done for the year with a groin issue. The Mets believe Marte’s current injury could be related to his offseason core muscle surgery and they don’t want to push him. While he does have 24 steals in 28 attempts, Marte’s.625 OPS is the lowest mark of his career by a significant margin. He still has two years left on his contract.

With the Mets out of contention, they are starting to play guys who wouldn’t normally be in the lineup. For example, in Monday’s 10-4 upset of Atlanta, DJ Stewart went 2-for-3 with a home run and two RBI. It was Stewart’s fifth homer in his last six games. Since his call-up from Triple-A Syracuse on July 4, Stewart owns a slash line of .246/.338/.574 with six home runs, 12 RBI and nine runs scored across 72 plate appearances.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor ranks fifth in the majors and fourth in the National League with a 5.1 fWAR. Since he joined the Mets, Lindor has posted a 16.2 fWAR. Only Freddie Freeman (17.9) and Mookie Betts (16.8) have posted a higher mark in the Senior Circuit. Lindor has stolen 21 bases this year, exceeding his total from 2022 (16 steals in 161 games). His career-best is 25 steals 158 games in 2018.

Pete Alonso has recorded nine home runs this month. His career-best for any single month is 11 home runs, which he recorded in 27 games in September of 2019. He has recorded five months with at least 10 home runs in his career. His next home run would mark the second time this year that Alonso has hit 10 homers in a single month. Alonso is one home run shy of recording his third season of 40 or more home runs. He is the only player in franchise history with multiple seasons of 40 or more home runs. Since he entered the league in 2019, only two other players have recorded multiple seasons with 40 or more home runs: Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout of the Angels.

It’s lefty Jose Quintana (1-4, 3.03) on the mound. Quintana earned the win last Thursday, allowing two runs on three hits and four walks over six innings against the Cardinals. He struck out five. Quintana went 1-2-3 through each of the first three innings and hurling six scoreless frames before finally surrendering a solo home run to Tyler O’Neill to open the seventh. It ended Quintana’s major league-leading homerless inning streak at 97.1 innings.

Quintana has posted a quality start in each of his last five starts, tied with three others for the longest active such streak in the majors. It is the longest such streak by a Met hurler this season and the longest by a Met since Jacob deGrom tossed six straight quality starts from August 13 – September 13, 2022.

Quintana is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA career vs. Atlanta. He suffered the loss at Citi Field on August 12 in Game 2 of a doubleheader, allowing one run over 6.0 innings on four hits and three walks, while striking out four batters. It was Quintana’s first career quality start against the Braves.

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Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves continue to have the best record in the majors and are the favorites to win the World Series. Marcell Ozuna hit two homers in Monday’s loss to reach 26 dingers on the season. The Braves have become the 2nd team in MLB history with five 25-HR hitters before September (2019 Twins). There have been 18 players with 25 HR this season and 5 are on Atlanta. Six of Atlanta’s nine regulars have been named N.L. Player of the Week this season, including the entire starting outfield. No other N.L. team has more than three individual winners this season (Cincinnati).

Manager Brian Snitker does not believe second baseman Ozzie Albies (hamstring) “will play in a rehab game before being activated. Albies has not encountered any issues since landing on the injured list a little less than a week ago, and as a result he may not need a tune-up before rejoining the big club. He is eligible to be activated Friday.

Reliever Jesse Chavez has been on the shelf since mid-June with what was initially diagnosed as a left shin contusion, but after he underwent an MRI once the swelling on his leg subsided, he was revealed to have suffered a microfracture. Chavez may be ready for a rehab assignment next week, though.

It’s veteran right-hander Charlie Morton on the mound here. Morton (12-10) earned the win over the Yankees last Wednesday, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out 10 batters over six scoreless innings. Relying heavily on his knee-buckling bender, but also topping out at 96.9 mph with his heater, Morton at one point retired 10 straight batters and never allowing a runner to reach third base. The veteran racked up 15 swinging strikes and tied a season high with 10 punchouts while recording his second straight scoreless appearance.

The 39-year-old has a 3.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 146:66 K:BB through 134.2 innings. Between July 19-Aug 6, Morton had a four-start stretch that had everyone scratching their heads and wondering if he was done. Over those four starts, Morton pitched 19.2 innings, gave up 16 earned runs (7.32 ERA), hit three batters, allowed a .412 on-base percentage to opposing hitters, an .882 OPS, and walked 15 guys.

This year against the Mets, Morton is 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA in three starts.

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Expert Prediction

Braves 6, Mets 4

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