Mets vs Padres

Mets vs Padres | MLB Betting Odds

Written by on June 3, 2021

Two young stars who signed mega-contract extensions this offseason around the majors were Francisco Lindor with the Mets and Fernando Tatis Jr. with the Padres. The Mets and Padres meet for the first time this season Thursday night to open a series in southern California, but Tatis may not play. San Diego is still favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Mets at Padres MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Thursday, 10 PM ET
  • Where: Petco Park
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Taijuan Walker/Yu Darvish
  • TV: MLB Extra Innings

Why Bet on New York? | MLB Betting Odds

The Mets did get back former NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso from the injured list this week but still have second baseman Jeff McNeil, third baseman JD Davis and outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto on the injured list.

Nimmo is still experiencing discomfort in his left index finger. He Nimmo resumed swinging a bat toward the end of May, but he’s only made incremental progress and the Mets aren’t going to push it. “He’s just felt it a little bit,” manager Luis Rojas told reporters this week. “Not at the same rate he felt it in the past, but we just want that completely out of there for sure. We want him to be fully healthy and comfortable.” Nimmo has been out for a month and there is currently no timetable for his return.

It’s Taijuan Walker (4-1) on the mound. Walker matched a season-high with eight strikeouts over five scoreless innings on Saturday in a win over the Braves. Walker was brilliant — scattering a pair of hits and a walk over five shutout frames — in his return to the Mets’ rotation after missing just one start due to left side tightness. Walker allowed one run or fewer for the fifth time in his last six starts.

The 28-year-old righty generated 13 swinging strikes and finished with an elite 39 percent CSW (called strikes plus whiffs).  He has 1.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 49/19 K/BB ratio across 49 innings (nine starts). That ERA is the second-lowest mark in franchise history by a Met in his first nine starts with the team, trailing only Al Leiter (1.49) in 1998.

Walker, who arrived late in the offseason on a two-year deal worth $20 million (after the Mets had missed on options such as Trevor Bauer and James Paxton), has pitched to a 1.11 ERA at home this season.

“I feel confident in myself and I felt confident last year,” said Walker, who returned from Tommy John surgery in 2020 after missing most of the previous two seasons. “I showed that I had a couple of more pitches, and this year my only focus is to go out there and try to help the team win ballgames. Try to go deep into games. I don’t care if I am proving people wrong or not.”

The Mets 3-1 in Walker’s outings on the road. Walker boasts a 1-0 record and owns a 2.75 ERA (six earned runs/19.2 innings) on the road in 2021. Opponents have hit .157 (11-70) off Walker on the road.

Why Bet on San Diego? | MLB Betting Odds

Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. already has missed time twice already this season, first after suffering a subluxation of his left shoulder on April 5 and later after testing positive for COVID-19 on May 10. He might miss a few games again after being pulled from Tuesday’s game in Chicago after he experienced tightness during a swing in the top of the sixth inning. He is being evaluated for right oblique tightness.

“He was a little tight around the midsection, abdominal-section, and so [taking him out was] more precautionary than anything,” Padres manager Jayce Tingler said.

Those can become month-long injuries if not treated with caution. Given his level of stardom, his central role on a contender, and the myriad injuries he’s dealt with so far this season, any health issue for Tatis Jr. rates as a potential game-changer. Another injury on the roster is something San Diego can ill afford at the moment. With 10 players on the 60-day IL and four more on the 10-day injured list as of Tuesday, the Padres’ roster is already thin.

It’s Yu Darvish (5-1) on the mound here. Darvish allowed five runs — four earned — on four hits, three walks, and five strikeouts over five innings during the Padres; 11-8 win over the Astros last Saturday, but did not factor into the decision. It was only the third time all season that the Padres ace has allowed more than one earned run in a start.

Darvish generated an uncharacteristically low 19 percent whiff rate during the game with a 25 percent CSW. The 34-year-old surrendered a two-run homer to Carlos Correa in the fourth inning and an unearned run in the fifth due to a Jake Cronenworth fielding error. Darvish still carries an elite 2.16 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 66 2/3 innings with 79 strikeouts.

Darvish has dominated in his last 36 starts dating back to 2019’s All-Star break, posting a 2.20 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. His 29.6% K-BB rate ranks third behind Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. 9, Darvish has the second-lowest walk rate to Kyle Hendricks among all qualified starters during this timeframe. He hasn’t issued more than three free passes in a start since May 9, 2019, when he exceeded that tally for the sixth time in eight starts with six walks.

Game Trends

  • Mets are 8-1 in their last 9 Thursday games.
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
  • Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. National League West.
  • Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
  • Padres are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. National League East.

Expert Prediction

  • Padres 4, Mets 2
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