MLB Showdown: Padres vs Mets Odds, Picks & Wild Card Implications

A big series in the NL wild-card race begins on Thursday night from San Diego when the Padres, who seem all but assured of a WC spot, host the New York Mets – who are currently just on the outside looking in. The Friars are solid favorites for the opener on the MLB odds.

New York Mets at San Diego: MLB Expert Analysis

New York Mets +119

The Mets didn’t start regulars such as Jesse Winker, Jeff McNeill and Francisco Alvarez for Wednesday’s home series finale vs. Baltimore, but all are healthy – it was simply the Orioles starting a lefty on the mound. They should all be back in the starting lineup on Thursday.

McNeil has hit seven home runs in 28 games following the All-Star break, batting .308 (28-91) with 17 runs, 10 doubles, six walks, 16 RBI with a 1.017 OPS. In 88 games prior to the break, he hit five home runs, batting .218 (64-296) with 35 runs, 14 doubles, five home runs, 24 RBI, 22 walks with a .591 OPS. Earlier this week, Alvarez hit his first career walk-off homer and at 22 years and 274 days at the time became the third-youngest player in Mets history with a walk-off HR, older than only Lee Mazzilli (9/20/76 & 21y, 179d) and Ron Swoboda (8/4/66 & 22y, 35d).

Mets’ Home Runners

Stars Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have each recorded 20 or more doubles and 20 or more home runs this year. The Mets have two other players on the verge of 20/20 seasons. The franchise record for most players with a 20/20 season on the same team is four, done twice before: The 2019 Mets (Alonso, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis & McNeil) and the 2000 Mets (Edgardo Alfonzo, Mike Piazza, Robin Ventura & Todd Zeile).

Lindor ranks tied for fifth in the majors and is tied for the NL lead with a 5.8 fWAR this season. He has posted a 5.3 fWAR since May 1, best in the NL in that span. Alonso is looking to record his second season with 30 doubles and 30 home runs. In 2019 he hit 30 doubles and 53 home runs. Only four players in Mets history have recorded multiple seasons with 30 home runs and 30 doubles: David Wright (2007-08), Carlos Beltrán (2006-07), Carlos Delgado (2006 and 2008) and Howard Johnson (1989 and 1991).

Luis Severino on the Mound

It’s right-hander Severino on the hill Thursday. Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) picked up the win last Saturday, scattering four hits and a walk over nine scoreless innings in a 4-0 victory over the Marlins. He struck out eight. Three of the four hits off Severino were doubles, but he bore down and stranded the runner each time. After hitting the leadoff man in the ninth, he earned a shot to close it out and struck out two of the final three batters. Severino needed a season-high 113 pitches, and it was a nice turnaround for Severino, who had gone 0-3 with an 8.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over his prior four starts.

It was Severino’s first shutout since May 2, 2018, when he went the distance in Houston with the Yankees. Before Severino had his best game as a member of the Mets, the last pitcher in the team’s history to throw a shutout was Jacob deGrom on April 23, 2021, against the Nationals. The former Yankee is hoping to reach 200 innings this year for the first time in his career. He’s at 142.2.

Severino’s lone career start vs. the Padres came last year while with the Yankees, and he took a no-decision, allowing two runs and just one hit over 6.2 innings.

San Diego Padres -159

No team has been better since the All-Star break than the Padres, who now are right on the heels of the LA Dodgers in the NL West – and this run has all but guaranteed that San Diego will get an NL wild-card spot. If the team can get back superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. and ace Yu Darvish from injury, look out. Darvish isn’t hurt but dealing with some unknown family issue. He has yet to rejoin the Padres since landing on the restricted list July 6, but he has been working out and throwing on his own.

Tatis is approaching the two-month mark in his absence due to a right femoral stress reaction, though he’s yet to be moved to the 60-day IL. We still should see him at some point next month.

Ha-Seong Kim

Shortstop Kim was placed on the IL this week after an MRI revealed inflammation in his right shoulder stemming from an awkward dive into first base on Sunday. The Padres are hopeful he’ll return after the minimum 10-day stint. It marks the first injured list stint of Kim’s MLB career. The South Korea native has been exceptionally durable since signing a four-year deal going into the 2021 season. He reached the 150-game plateau in both 2022 and ’23. Kim is batting .233 with 11 homers, 47 RBIs and 22 steals.

Dylan Cease on the Hill

It’s ace righty Dylan Cease on the mound – of course, he had his first career no-hitter fairly recently. Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA) picked up the win over the Rockies last Saturday, allowing three runs on three hits and five walks over 5.2 innings. He struck out five. Cease started off strong, striking out five of the first nine batters he faced while keeping the Rockies off the scoreboard through the first five innings. Cease then began to stumble in the sixth, allowing three consecutive batters to reach before eventually surrendering three runs in the frame. Cease generated 16 swings and misses on 101 pitches on the night — 11 of those on his slider — while posting a strong CSW of 32 percent.

It marked the third consecutive start in which Cease has been unable to get through six innings (excluding his rain-delayed start Aug. 6). The five walks also matched his season high, and he’s now issued multiple free passes in four consecutive outings in which he’s pitched outside the first inning. Despite that, Cease has won five of his last six decisions (spanning seven starts).

Cease faced the Mets on June 16 in New York, and it was one of the worst starts of his career as he allowed seven runs, seven hits, three walks and two wild pitches in 4 2/3 innings. He sat on the bench and shook his head when removed from the game. The Mets hit two first-inning homers to lead by three runs after just 16 Cease pitches.

Mets at Padres Info

When: Thursday, 9:40 PM ET
Where: Petco Park
Pitchers (away/home): Luis Severino/Dylan Cease
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

Jurickson Profar willed the @Padres to a win last night with 8th-inning heroics on both sides of the ball! 😤 pic.twitter.com/8bNlntdMa5

— MLB (@MLB) August 21, 2024

MLB Betting Center

---

Updated MLB Odds | Sportsbook Online

mybookie App Download App

Download Remind me later