Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction

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Major League Baseball comes out of its All-Star break on Friday, and Milwaukee at Cincinnati is for first place in the NL Central with the surprising Reds currently holding a one-game lead but a short underdog on the MLB odds against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.

Brewers vs. Reds | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Milwaukee at Cincinnati MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Great American Ball Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Corbin Burnes/Graham Ashcraft
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Brewers -120, Reds +100 (total 9.5)

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

These teams closed the first half against one another in Milwaukee and the Brewers won two of three, including the finale 1-0 on Sunday ahead of the break. All-Star closer Devin Williams slammed the door in the ninth, retiring all three hitters that he faced. Williams has a 1.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 45/18 K/BB ratio over 33 1/3 innings while recording 20 saves in 22 chances.

Christian Yelich went 1-for-4 with a double and scored the game’s lone run in Sunday’s victory. The former NL MVP is having a really strong bounce-back season, hitting.284/.378/.456 with 11 homers, 46 RBI and 20 stolen bases. Yelich is on a nine-game hitting streak. Since joining the Brewers in 2018, Yelich has played 82 games against Cincinnati and has hit .293 with 17 HR and 51 RBI with a .408 OBP/.562 SLG/.970 OPS.

However, Jesse Winker has been a massive bust this year, hitting .200/.324/.253 with just one home run and 22 RBI in his first 55 games with the Brewers. The Brewers haven’t been particularly impressive on offense (22nd with an 89 wRC+) or pitching (15th with a 4.11 ERA), but they play great defense (first with 30 defensive runs saved) and they’ve been good enough to reside at or near the top of the NL Central all season. It might take only 84 or 85 wins to win the division, and the Brewers can do that even hitting .232.

It’s ace right-hander and former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes (7-5) on the mound. Burnes yielded two runs on three hits and four walks over six innings Friday, striking out six and earning a win over the Reds. He allowed just one baserunner through four shutout frames before Joey Votto belted a two-run shot in the fifth inning. Burnes has won consecutive starts for the first time since April, giving up four runs over 13 innings in those two wins after being tagged with 14 runs in his previous three outings. The 28-year-old righty lowered his ERA to 3.94 with a 102:39 K:BB through 107.1 frames this season.

Burnes’ velocity has returned of late to where his cut fastball has an average velocity of 94.5 or higher in four of his last five starts. He had one blowup against the Diamondbacks in the first inning of a June 19 start, but he still is in the top five in overall Stuff+ among starters. Even despite that blowup, Burnes has a 3.92 ERA in his last eight starts with 51 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings.

Burnes was named an All-Star injury replacement for the NL in Tuesday’s All-Star Game but he didn’t pitch. Neither did the closer Williams. It marked the ninth time since the franchise moved in 1970 that no Milwaukee players played in the Midsummer Classic.

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Why Bet on Cincinnati?

With a 50-41 record the Reds are in first place this late in a full season for the time since the end of the 2012 season, when they most recently won the Central Division (97-65, +9.0). Last season, the Reds were 34-57 after 91 games.

Cincinnati is trying to become the first team to win a division after losing at least 100 games the season before. On April 23, the Reds were eight games under .500 (7-15) and 8.5 games out of first place, both season highs. Now they lead the division. Their 43-26 record beginning April 24 is the best in the Central Division and second-best in the Major Leagues behind the Braves.

Cincy leads the Major Leagues with 33 come-from-behind wins and have won 17 games in their final at bat, including 6 walk-off wins. They also lead the Majors with 112 stolen bases, their highest total since 2017 (120sb). The Reds had just 58 stolen bases all of 2022. Rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz stole second, third and home last Saturday against Milwaukee.

Reds batters established a new franchise record for consecutive games with at least 1 home run at 22 in a row, but that streak was snapped in the 1-0 loss at Milwaukee in the final game heading into the All-Star Game break. The Brewers’ 2-1 series win to end the season’s first half snapped a streak in which the Reds won 7 consecutive road series.

It’s Graham Ashcraft (4-6) on the mound Friday. Ashcraft last pitched on July 5 and earned the win against the Nationals, allowing one run on seven hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out two. After allowing a run in the first inning, Ashcraft rebounded to blank the Nats over his final five frames en route to his first win since May 28. The 25-year-old has now delivered consecutive quality starts after pitching to a 12.82 ERA in his previous eight outings. He has a 6.28 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and 61:35 K:BB across 16 starts (81.2 innings).

Ashcraft is 1-3 with a 10.13 ERA in four career starts vs. the Brewers. He was massacred for 10 runs over four innings of a 10-8 home loss to Milwaukee on June 3 this year.

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Game Trends

• The Reds have hit the moneyline in 44 of their last 76 games.
• The Brewers have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games.
• The Reds have hit the Over in 50 of their last 84 games.
• The Brewers have hit the Over in 8 of their last 10 games.
• Four of seven games this season between the teams have gone Under the total.

Expert Prediction

Brewers 6, Reds 5

NL Central: Updated July 14th

W: Wins | L: Losses | %: Winning Percentage | GB: Games Behind | STRK: Current Streak | HOME: Record at Home | AWAY: Record When Away

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