NL Division Series Game 1 Braves vs Brewers

NL Division Series Game 1: Braves vs Brewers | Start of Playoffs MLB

Written by on October 7, 2021

The first National League Division Series to start in these playoffs is Friday afternoon as the NL Central-leading Atlanta Braves visit the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 with the Brew Crew favored on the MLB odds behind possible NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.

How to Bet Braves at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Friday, 4:37 PM ET
  • Where: American Family Field
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Charlie Morton/Corbin Burnes
  • TV: TBS
  • Stream/gameday audio: TBS app
  • Opening MLB Lines: Brewers -137, Braves +127 (total 7)

Why Bet on Atlanta?

Atlanta’s four straight division titles marks the longest streak in the majors. Pretty impressive the Braves won the NL East considering they lost superstar outfielder in early July to a season-ending torn ACL. Braves management responded by acquiring Jorge Soler from the Royals, Eddie Rosario from the Indians and Adam Duvall from the Marlins in July 30 trades that may have saved Atlanta’s season.  The Braves became just the second team to have all four infielders hit 25-plus home runs — Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson.

The starting pitchers have been solid throughout, but after the trade deadline posted the third-best rotation ERA in baseball. Meanwhile, the bullpen was 18th in ERA before the deadline. It is fifth since then.

It will be Charlie Morton (14-6) on the mound here. In the regular-season finale on Sunday, Morton struck out three batters with one hit allowed over 2 2/3 scoreless innings in a no-decision vs. the Mets. Morton looked sharp in the abbreviated outing, throwing 30-of-43 pitches for strikes while allowing just one baserunner on a single. The 37-year-old right-hander finished the regular season with a 3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts over 185 2/3 innings.

Morton has made 13 career appearances in the postseason, including 12 starts, and is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA (23 ER/61.1 IP). He has started one Game 1 in his postseason career, pitching in the 2019 AL Wild Card game with the Rays. He earned the win in that game after allowing just one unearned run over 5.0 innings, walking three and fanning four.

Morton made one start against the Brewers this year and was 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

This is the first-ever postseason meeting between the Braves and Brewers, both of whom have called Milwaukee home. The Brewers are looking for their first World Series title. The last time the Braves played a postseason game in Milwaukee was Game 7 of the 1958 World Series at County Stadium, mere feet from the site on which the Brewers’ current home, American Family Field, now stands.

The Brewers have elite talent at the top of their rotation in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta — all of whom were among the NL Cy Young Award contenders for most of the season. Then they have an elite option at the back of the bullpen in closer Josh Hader, who has a strong case to win the NL Reliever of the Year Award for the third time in four seasons.

However, Milwaukee will be without excellent setup man Devin Williams. He broke his pitching hand punching a wall after having a few drinks after Milwaukee clinched the National League Central division title. Williams, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, is 8-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 54 innings. Setting up Hader, he has helped give the Brewers perhaps the best late-game combination in the majors. The Brewers were 70-4 when leading after seven innings. Of the 674 Major League pitchers who threw at least 10 innings during the regular season, Williams’ strikeout rate ranked 10th. Hader ranked first at 45.5 percent.

It’s potential NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (11-4, 2.43) on the mound. In his season finale last Saturday vs. the Dodgers, Burnes allowed three runs over two innings. After getting Mookie Betts to pop up and striking out Corey Seager on 92 mph changeup in the bottom of the first, Burnes allowed two batters to reach base before surrendering a three-run homer to Justin Turner. With the Brewers preparing for the playoffs, they did not feel compelled to let Burnes go beyond two innings.

Burnes led the NL in ERA, K’s per nine, fewest walks per nine and fewest home runs per nine (just seven in 167 innings). No pitcher had even led his league in just SO/9 and BB/9 since Walter Johnson in 1913. In his only start against the Braves this season, Burnes gave up five runs and nine hits over four innings. The Brewers still won the July 30 game 9-5

Game Trends

  • Braves are 12-2 in their last 14 overall.
  • Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
  • Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.
  • Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games.
  • Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
  • Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 games following an off day.

Expert Prediction

  • Brewers 3, Braves 2

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