MLB Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds and Prediction for Wednesday’s Game

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If the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays meet again in 2023 after Wednesday at Rogers Centre, it would be in the World Series. And that’s possible as both should make the postseason. It’s a terrific pitching matchup in the finale with the Jays favored on the MLB odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 19: Monday August 14 – Sunday August 20, 2023

How to Bet Philadelphia at Toronto MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7:07 PM ET
Where: Rogers Centre
Probable pitchers (away/home): Aaron Nola/Kevin Gausman
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Blue Jays -145, Phillies +125 (total 8)

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

It’s a big two-game series for Phils manager Rob Thomson, the only Canadian MLB manager. On July 12 last year, Thomson became the first Canadian born manager to ever manage a game in his home country. Thomson, who was inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in 2019, was born in Sarnia, Ontario, is only the seventh manager born in Canada to guide a major league club and the first since 1934.

Since Kyle Schwarber was inserted back into the leadoff spot on June 2, he has posted a .793 OPS and the Phillies are 40-23 while averaging 5.1 runs per game.

The Phils remain without starting outfielder Brandon Marsh, who is expected to begin a rehab assignment this week with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Out since Aug. 6 with a bruised left knee, the 25-year-old outfielder appears on track to return to the Phillies’ active roster early next week. Marsh was in the midst of his most productive offense season, as he slashed .281/.367/.460/.827 with eight home runs and 43 RBI in 101 games. He’s three home runs and nine RBI away from tying his career high.

The Phillies have won 20 of their last 28 games away from home since June 3 and their .714 winning percentage on the road in that stretch ranks 1st in MLB. The Phillies also have won 18 of their last 24 games against the American League (as of Tuesday).

It’s right-hander Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.49) on the mound. Nola did not factor into the decision last Thursday, allowing one run on five hits and one walk over five-plus innings against Washington. He struck out six. After struggling in his previous two starts, Nola worked into the sixth inning before back-to-back singles led to his removal with the score tied 0-0. Phillies reliever Matt Strahm then allowed an RBI double to Ildemaro Vargas, saddling Nola with the only run on his line. In five outings since the All-Star break, the 30-year-old Nola holds a 1-2 record with a 4.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 33:5 K:BB across 29.1 innings during that stretch.

Nola is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts vs. the Jays. He beat them on May 9, allowing two runs on five hits over six innings.

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Why Bet on Toronto?

Toronto has won 12 of its last 21 games, 21 of its last 35, and is 40-29 over its last 69 contests. Its .580 win% over that span (since May 26) is 2nd-highest in the AL behind Baltimore.

Toronto is playing without star shortstop Bo Bichette, who has been out since Aug. 2 with right patellar tendinitis. The club’s most productive hitter this season, Bichette is batting .321 with 17 home runs and 59 RBI. He could be back by Friday. Third baseman Matt Chapman missed a second straight start Tuesday after jamming his middle finger on a weight rack over the weekend. The Blue Jays have another day off coming Thursday, so it’s possible Chapman is also held out for Wednesday’s series finale to provide a couple extra days of rest. Santiago Espinal was at the hot corner Tuesday.

Toronto batters rank 3rd in the AL in home OBP (.329), 5th in home AVG (.254), 7th in home OPS (.732), and 10th in home SLG (.403). The pitching staff ranks 2nd among AL teams with 3.40 home ERA while sitting 3rd with a .227 home opponents’ average and 5th with a 1.20 home WHIP.

The good news is that Jays All-Star closer Jordan Romano was activated Tuesday. In 42.0 innings pitched this season, Romano has a 2.79 ERA with 28 saves. Romano wound up being sidelined just a couple days beyond the minimum 15 with lower-back inflammation. The closer made one scoreless rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo to show the Blue Jays he was ready to go. Reliever Nate Pearson was sent down to make room.

It’s ace righty Kevin Gausman (9-6) on the mound. Gausman earned the win over Cleveland last Wednesday, allowing four hits and no walks while striking out six batters over seven scoreless innings. Gausman opened the contest by giving up a leadoff single, but he allowed just three more baserunners the rest of the way and didn’t put multiple runners on base in any frame. He completed seven innings for the first time since June 6 and finished with his 16th quality start, tied for third in the majors. Gausman also ranks first among American League qualified pitchers with 183 strikeouts, third with a 3.04 ERA and 12th with a 1.14 WHIP.

Gausman faced the Phillies on May 10 and pitched six scoreless innings in a no-decision. Career against the Phillies, he’s 1-3 with a 3.70 ERA (17 ER/41.1 IP) and 45 Ks.

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Expert Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Phillies 2

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