Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Spread, Expert Analysis & Betting Prediction

Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Spread, Expert Analysis & Betting Prediction

Written by on May 30, 2019

The best rivalry in baseball is renewed on Thursday night and it’s nationally televised because it always is as the Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees in a matchup of left-handers with disappointing numbers thus far. Boston is favored on the MLB lines.

Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Spread, Expert Analysis & Betting Prediction

Why Bet on Boston?

Ryan Brasier was awful in a save chance Tuesday, yielding three runs without retiring a batter in a loss to the Indians. The Red Sox had a three-run lead entering the top of the ninth inning, but the advantage was erased quickly with Brasier on the mound. The reliever served up a home run to the light-hitting Roberto Perez, walked Jake Bauers and then gave up a game-tying homer to the light-hitting Greg Allen.  Brasier had pitched well lately after a rough start to the month, but obviously this was a step backward. He still leads the Red Sox with six saves this season but hasn’t recorded one since April.

During their current 18-9 stretch, which began on 4/29, the Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored per game (6.50) and OBP (.365). The Sox had won each of their last 19 games when scoring 5+ runs until losing Tuesday 7-5 to the Indians. They are 6-20 when scoring 4 or fewer runs. The Red Sox began the season 4-8 in games in which they scored first, but they are 12-4 in such games since.

The Red Sox are 146-48 (.753) when Jackie Bradley Jr. records at least one extra-base hit, and 22-2 (.917) when he has at least 2. They have won each of their last 16 games in which Bradley records multiple extra-base hits.

Sox lefty ace Chris Sale (1-6, 4.19) took the loss Friday as the Red Sox were downed 4-3 by the Astros, allowing four runs (two earned) on three hits and two walks over six innings while striking out five. Shaky defense by Boston was the difference in the game, as the team committed three errors behind Sale. The southpaw wasn’t particularly sharp, throwing 56 of 89 pitches for strikes and whiffing fewer than eight batters for the first time in over a month, but he still delivered his sixth quality start of the year.

The Yankees have always been a good matchup against Sale. The lefty is 7-5 with a 1.93 ERA in 20 appearances against New York, including the postseason.

Team Statistics

  • Runs: 5.41
  • Hits: 9.02
  • Walks: 4.05
  • Strike Outs: 8.14
  • Runs: 4.82
  • Hits: 8.05
  • Walks: 3.39
  • Strike Outs: 9.66

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

Are the Yankees a safe bet in the MLB spread?

Gary Sanchez was out of the Yankees’ starting lineup on Wednesday afternoon against the Padres. Sanchez slugged his 17th home run of the season on Tuesday night, pushing his season OPS up to .993. Sanchez is hitting .306/.359/.778 (11-for-36) with 8R, 1 triple, 5HR, 11 RBI and 3BB in his last 9 games. His 17HR are tied for the second-most by a Yankees catcher prior to the All-Star break in club history (Yogi Berra-18HR in 1956 and Jorge Posada-17HR in 2003).

This year, New York is 13-0 when hitting at least three homers in a game, and 20-1 when hitting at least 2 homers, both the best such records in the Majors.

Aaron Judge hit off a tee on Monday. He also took dry swings and did some throwing. Judge has begun to ramp up his rehab over the last week and could maybe begin playing in minor league games sometime in early June, though he still has some hurdles to clear. The slugger has been sidelined since April 21 with a strained left oblique muscle.

Shortstop Didi Gregorius moved his rehab assignment up to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Tuesday. Gregorius went 2-for-7 with a home run and a walk in two rehab games with High-A Tampa. Yankees manager Aaron Boone has said previously that once Gregorius reached Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he would be 1-2 weeks away from being activated.

Lefty JA Happ (4-3) struck out ten and picked up the win in Saturday’s 7-3 victory over the Royals, giving up three runs on four hits over six innings. Happ shut out the Royals until the sixth inning, but Whit Merrifield blasted a three-run homer to tie the score. The southpaw recovered to finish the inning before turning the game over to the Yankees bullpen after 82 pitches. The 36-year-old will carry a 5.09 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 50:13 K:BB over 58.1 innings into Thursday’s game.

Since the start of 2017, he is 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA (158.2IP, 54ER) in 29 starts vs. AL East clubs. That is the second-lowest ERA vs. the AL East in that span (min. 20 starts), trailing only Chris Sale (2.43). Happ has held opponents to a .222 BA (133-for-598) in that span.

Team Statistics

  • Runs: 5.38
  • Hits: 8.69
  • Walks: 3.65
  • Strike Outs: 8.62
  • Runs: 4.04
  • Hits: 7.76
  • Walks: 3.13
  • Strike Outs: 9.58

Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Betting Trends

  • Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
  • Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 Thursday games.
  • Yankees are 41-16 in their last 57 during game 1 of a series.
  • Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 Thursday games.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Over is 4-1 in Sale’s last 5 starts vs. Yankees.

Expert MLB Prediction for Red Sox vs Yankees

Red Sox 4, Yankees 3

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