Reds vs Brewers Odds, Score Prediction and Analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central Division pretty comfortably with three teams currently neck-and-neck in second place, including the Cincinnati Reds, who visit Milwaukee to open a weekend series Friday in what looks to be a good pitching matchup. The Brew Crew are favored on the MLB odds.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Line: Brewers -140, Reds +130 (total 8)
Score Prediction: Brewers 4, Reds 3

Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines +112

The Reds have won eight of 10, but also snapped a two-game skid on Wednesday with a 4-2 home win over Cleveland to split that Ohio Cup series. Jeimer Candelario homered twice and drove in all four runs for Cincinnati. Candelario hit a solo home run off Tanner Bibee in the first inning, followed it up with a three-run homer off Bibee to give the Reds a 4-2 lead in the sixth, and then added a single in the eighth. Candelario has been crushing in June, hitting .340 with five homers and 11 RBI through 11 contests.

It was Candelario’s fifth multi-homer game of his career and first since July 25, 2022, for the Tigers vs. the Padres. His .779 OPS leads the club, and he’s tied for the team lead with 11 homers and 15 doubles.

“Everything started in the mind. It comes into the body,” Candelario said of the recent surge. “You want to be as calm as you want to be, as positive as you want to be. You want good vibes. But to create that, you have to have a routine. You have to be solid with that routine. That routine will bring you your confidence and everything you need to have success. If you can hit, you’re going to hit. You just have to be patient.”

TJ Friedl singled and scored a run in the win. Friedl singled off of Bibee in the sixth inning, then rode home on Jeimer Candelario’s go-ahead three-run homer. That would be Friedl’s only hit in four at-bats. He has been having a rough time at the plate in-between stints on the injured list this season, slashing a .221/.338/.382 with three homers, 13 RBI and five stolen bases in his first 19 games.

Alexis Díaz got the save, retiring all three hitters that he faced in order to preserve a two-run advantage. Díaz made things look easy, getting Steven Kwan on a pop-up to shortstop, Kyle Manzardo on a fly ball to right field and Jose Ramirez on a pop-up to second base to end it — needing just 13 pitches (nine strikes) to get the job done. The 27-year-old now holds a 5.33 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 27/18 K/BB ratio (25 1/3 innings) to go along with 14 saves and one victory on the season.

Cincinnati has not had likely No. 1 third baseman Noelvi Marte yet this season, as he’s in the final two weeks of an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a banned steroid (Boldenone) last year. Marte is in the minors and has been hitting well and eligible to return from suspension June 27. Marte slashed .316/.366/.456 in 35 games and 123 plate appearances in the big leagues last season.

It’s fire-balling righty Hunter Greene (4-2, 3.61 ERA) scheduled on the mound Friday. Greene, Nelva allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings and got the win in the Reds’ 8-4 victory over the Cubs last Thursday. Greene gave up five hits, walked two and struck out eight. It was a bit of a mixed bag for Greene, with two home runs allowed and eight strikeouts.

Greene was previously expected to start Tuesday versus Cleveland, but he was given a bit of extra rest this week after throwing 111 pitches in each of his past two starts. Greene gave up nine earned runs in those outings but has a 3.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 84:32 K:BB over 77.1 innings this season. Over his last six starts, Greene is 4-0 with a 3.08 ERA (4QS, 49.2ip, 17r/17er, 21bb, 48k, 5hr). However, he is 0-5 with an 8.25 ERA in five career starts vs. the Brewers, including a loss back on April 10 when Greene was shelled.

This starts a six-game trip for the Reds, who went 5-1 on their last trip to the Cubs and Rockies. It was their best 6-game trip since last season. Cincinnati opened the season by winning 16 of its first 29 games (.552) overall. From April 30 through May 25, the Reds were 4-17 (.190). They have since won eight of 10 and 13 of 18.

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MyBookie MLB Betting Odds to Win

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Lines -149

The Brewers took two of three in Cincinnati from April 8-10 – the fourth game was postponed by rain. Milwaukee is a heavy favorite to win the NL Central with the second-biggest division lead in the majors. Then again, every other Central team has a losing record.

Milwaukee took two of three at home to start this week vs. Toronto, capped by a 5-4 win Wednesday when the bullpen nearly blew a 5-1 ninth-inning lead. The Brewers stranded the potential tying run at third base in a three-run ninth when pinch-hitter Vladimir Guerrero Jr. flied out to the center-field warning track.

Christian Yelich went 3-for-4 with an RBI and also stole a base in the win. He had the go-ahead RBI single in the sixth inning. The 32-year-old former NL MVP has been great this season, batting .325 (51-for-157) with 22 runs scored, six homers, 30 RBI and 12 steals through 42 games.

Willy Adames followed Yelich’s go-ahead RBI single in the sixth inning with a colossal 446-foot moonshot to center field off Toronto southpaw reliever Tim Mayza. The 28-year-old shortstop has homered twice in his last three contests and is up to 11 round-trippers on the year, which puts him on pace to threaten his previous career-high mark of 31 dingers that he set in 2022.

Trevor Megill earned the save Wednesday, working around a hit and a walk while striking out one in a scoreless ninth inning. After Toronto logged three straight hits off Hoby Milner to start the ninth, the Brewers turned to Megill to shut the door. He’d get off to a shaky start, allowing two inherited runs to score after a hit and a walk, though he’d ultimately settle in and close out the victory.

Megill has now converted Milwaukee’s last three save chances while allowing just one earned run in his last seven appearances. Megill’s converted 11 of 12 save opportunities this year while working to a 1.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 25:5 K:BB across 19 innings. Brewers relievers have a 2.41 ERA since May 14 and have held opponents to a .200 average in that span. The bullpen has a 1.62 ERA in June.

Second baseman Joey Ortiz missed a second straight start with a sore left hamstring. Manager Pat Murphy noted that Ortiz “tested out really well” on Wednesday though and the Brewers are hopeful that after Thursday’s off-day he’ll be ready to play Friday.

It’s ace righty Freddy Peralta (4-3) on the hill, although he has been struggling a bit of late. Peralta did not factor into the decision last Saturday against the Tigers, allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits and five walks while striking out three over 3.1 innings. Peralta had issues with his command, with the five walks being tied for his second most this season. He threw 94 pitches to retire just 10 batters as he found himself in constant trouble with a lot of traffic on the bases.

Peralta got just five swings and misses in the contest, posting an underwhelming CSW of only 24 percent. He’ll attempt to bounce back as he carries a 3.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 92/26 K/BB ratio (70 2/3 innings) into Friday’s matchup. Peralta is 5-2 with a 2.88 ERA in 19 career games/13 starts against Cincinnati. He has thrown 17.2 consecutive scoreless innings against the Reds.

The Brewers are 20-11 at home, going 7-2-1 in series play. The team has gone 15-4 in its last 19 home games after a 5-7 start. Milwaukee is 30-11 in its last 41 games against Cincinnati overall, including seven consecutive series wins.

Bet Reds at Brewers MLB Odds

When: Friday, 8:10 PM ET
Where: American Family Field
Pitchers (away/home): Hunter Greene/Freddy Peralta
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/