Can Boston Clinch? Heat vs. Celtics Betting Odds for Game 4

Without injured All-Star guard Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat were no match in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series against the NBA-best Boston Celtics. Butler will miss the series so will anything change Wednesday in Game 2? The Celtics are again massive favorites on the NBA odds

2024 NBA Playoffs Expert Analysis Miami at Boston | MyBookie NBA

How to Bet Heat at Celtics NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7 PM ET
Where: TD Garden
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Celtics -5.5 (total TBA)

Why Bet on Miami Heat?

Any realistic shot the Heat had of upsetting Boston in the second straight postseason – Miami stunned the C’s in the 2023 East Finals – basically ended when All-Star guard Jimmy Butler was hurt during the team’s play-in tournament opening loss against the Sixers. Somehow Butler played three quarters of that game on a sprained MCL, which takes weeks to recover from. He has officially been ruled out this entire series.

Without him, the Heat had their doors blown off in Game 1, 114-94. The Celtics opened the game by scoring the first 14 points. Boston led by as many as 18 points in the first half before entering halftime ahead 60-45.

“It’s clear, Boston controlled this game from the tip,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “The very first possession, offensive rebound and three. And from there, they controlled it.”

Bam Adebayo had a strong game with 24 points, six rebounds and three assists. Adebayo led all players in scoring while pacing the Heat in rebounds to go along with a trio of assists in a losing effort. Adebayo recorded 24 or more points in 14 games during the regular season. We could see Adebayo’s workload continue to increase sans Butler.

Jaime Jaquez started for Butler for the second straight game and had 16 points, four rebounds and four assists. Jaquez started in 20 games during the regular season, posting 15 or more points in 12 of those starts. Delon Wright led all Miami bench scorers with 17 points and sank all five of his attempts from deep. The shorthanded Heat are likely to lean on him more moving forward.

Duncan Robinson returned from injury for Miami but had just five points. Robinson has totaled 141 postseason three-point field goals, the most in team history, and the third-most by an undrafted player in NBA postseason history. Fellow guard Terry Rozier was out again and is considered week-to-week with a neck injury. He was the Heat’s big midseason trade acquisition.

Miami allowed just 108.4 points per game this regular season, the third-least in the NBA, and has currently held opponents to under their season scoring averages in their last 25-straight games, doing so by an average of -10.9 points per game over that span. The 25-game streak is the longest in franchise history, and the eighth-longest overall in NBA history when including the regular season, play-in and postseason. Boston entered this postseason averaging 120.6 points as Miami held them to 114 in Game 1.

The teams enter this postseason having faced each other six times in the playoffs, including four times in the Eastern Conference Finals (2012, 2020, 2022, 2023), once in the Semifinals (2011) and once in the First Round (2010). The Heat have a 4-2 playoff series record against Boston over that span, resulting in a 20-17 postseason record against the Celtics.

Why Bet on Boston Celtics?

Six different Celtics scored between 10 and 23 points in the Game 1 rout, and Jayson Tatum logged his first career playoff triple-double. Jaylen Brown ignited a 14-0 start with a 3-pointer and a spin-move dunk out of the gate. The Celtics rode that momentum, going up by as many as 34 points in the second half before taking a 91-59 lead into the final frame.

Tatum had 23 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and two steals, becoming the first Celtic to record a playoff triple-double since Marcus Smart on Sept. 9, 2020 against Toronto. The triple-double was Tatum’s first of the 2023-24 season. During the regular season, he surpassed 10 assists in one game while hauling in 10 or more boards 24 times.

“His mindset and approach throughout the game was great,” Joe Mazzulla said of Tatum’s performance. “I thought he played with great patience, thought he picked and chose his spots very well. I thought he took what the defense gave him and found the balance of creating for himself and for others. So to fight for that discipline on the offensive end, on both ends of the floor really, is a huge key to this series.”

As the contest entered its final minute, Tatum also showed toughness, popping up off the floor immediately after getting hit by Heat wing Caleb Martin while going airborne for a rebound.

“It’s playoff basketball, and it’s a physical game against a physical team. S—‘s gonna happen,” Tatum said, adding that he wanted to get up from the fall quickly to show he wasn’t hurt. “It’s probably not the last time I’m going to get hit like that in this series.”

Kristaps Porzingis had 18 points and four rebounds. The big man drilled four three-pointers and was a plus-17 in his 34 minutes of action. Derrick White had 20 points, four assists and three boards. White returned for the start of the postseason after missing Boston’s final two games of the regular season with an ankle injury. White surpassed the 20-point mark in 19 games over the regular season, doing so for the first time since recording 22 points on March 28.

Sam Hauser (12 points) and Payton Pritchard (10 points) were great off the bench for the Celtics, who tied their franchise playoff record with 22 made 3-pointers. Hauser hit 4 of 4 3-pointers in the second quarter to help Boston stretch a slim five-point lead to 15 points by halftime.

“You can’t go into the playoffs and shut those guys out,” Mazzulla said of the Celtics’ bench, which got a combined 30 points from the trio of Hauser, Al Horford (10) and Pritchard. “You’ve got to give them their run, because they just bring a different dynamic to the game. … We need our bench, we need our depth in order to maximize this opportunity that we have. They did a great job.”

Boston outscored Miami 66-36 from beyond the arc overall. The Celtics grabbed as many defensive rebounds, 34, as Miami grabbed total rebounds. The C’s are now 38-4 at home this season.

The underdog is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics with the series shifting back to Boston for Game 5 on Thursday and the C’s favored to force a Game 6.

Heat vs. Celtics, Game 5 | 2023 NBA Expert Analysis

How to Bet Miami at Boston NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: TD Garden
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Celtics -8 (total 215)

Why Bet on Miami?

The Heat had been dominating fourth quarters in this series but were outscored by eight points in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and lost 116-99 at home – Miami’s first home defeat in these playoffs. As quarters wore on and more shots hit iron, the three-point percentages dipped down for the Heat first below 40 percent, then 30, then 20 – a range Miami has so rarely been in these playoffs. By the end of the night, it was 25 percent as the team hit just 8-for-32 from deep.

Jimmy Butler accounted for 29 points in Tuesday’s loss, adding nine rebounds and five assists. Bam Adebayo scored only 10, Max Strus only nine, and Duncan Robinson was a non-factor. Butler can will his team to victory on any given night, but Miami relies on strong play across the board on most nights.

“If anything, it will build momentum for us knowing that we have to play with a lot more energy,” Butler said. “We’ve got to play like our backs are against the wall. But I think all year long, we’ve been better when we’ve had to do things the hard way.”

Caleb Martin scored 16 points to go with four rebounds, an assist and a block. Make it four games in a row for Martin with at least 15 points as he continues to shine off the bench. Through four games with a commanding 3-1 lead over the heavily-favored Celtics, Martin is the team’s second-leading scorer behind Butler with 18.5 points per game. That’s the second-highest average by a Heat reserve during a series in team postseason history, only Tyler Herro’s 19.2 average against Boston in 2020 is higher.

Miami’s bench is averaging 35.5 points, the third-highest average this postseason, and has outscored the opponents bench by +161 in these playoffs, the second-highest bench plus/minus in Heat playoff history during a single postseason.

The Heat’s defense has held teams to under 50 percent from the field in 12 of their 15 playoff games, including under 40 percent from three-point range 11 times. Miami leads all teams this postseason in deflections (234), loose balls recovered (93) and charges taken (19).

Why Bet on Boston?

The Celtics finally got going from deep in Game 4, hitting 18-for-45 and outscoring Miami by 30 from three-point range. Boston had come into this game shooting 31-for-106 (29.2%) from 3-point range over the first three games, compared with 44-for-92 (47.8%) for Miami.

Jayson Tatum had 14 of Boston’s 38 points in the third Tuesday, helping the Celtics outscore the Heat 38-23 in the frame to flip what had been a six-point halftime deficit into a nine-point lead. He then came back into the game after that early fourth quarter timeout and kick-started a game-deciding Boston run with an elbow jumper. He finished the contest having made 14 of his 22 shots from the field, four of his eight 3-pointers, and one of his two free throw attempts. No other player in the game made more than nine shots.

Tatum’s 14 made field goals were five more than any other player. He notched his 12th double-double in 17 games this postseason by hauling in a game-high 11 rebounds. Ten of those boards were captured at the defensive end – four more than any other player in the game.

Al Horford provided 12 points, seven rebounds and four assists in 25 minutes. Horford’s best scoring total of the series came at the right time, as the Boston frontcourt held steady. Grant Williams accumulated 14 points and six rebounds off the bench. Williams has been in and out of Boston’s rotation all postseason, so it will be interesting to see how coach Joe Mazzulla uses him Thursday in Game 5.

After posting a disturbing 124.4 defensive rating in Games 1-3, the C’s returned to their elite level of play on that end with a mark of 105.3 in Game 4.

“We were just playing Celtics basketball on the defensive end,” said Marcus Smart. “Everybody was helping one another. We were going to take it. We weren’t leaving it up for grabs as much as we usually did and it showed tonight. That’s just how we’ve got to continue to play.”

Boston committed just two turnovers in the second half Tuesday, their least in a single half of the postseason. On the flip side, the Celtics scored 27 points off of 15 Heat turnovers.

Game Trends

• Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
• Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
• Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Expert Prediction

Celtics 111, Heat 105