NBA Futures Betting Strategy: Cup vs Finals Value Explained

Introduction: The Futures Paradox

We are now just a couple of weeks away from the official start of the 2025 NBA Season, and I am sure that some of you already have your futures wagers planned out. It is worth noting that you now have 2 options, which are for the NBA Finals and the NBA Cup. A couple of years ago, the league started the in-season Cup tournament, which added a new wrinkle in futures betting in the NBA. It is not uncommon to see mid-tier NBA contenders have better odds for the Cup than they do for the Finals, but why is that? It’s a great question, and we are going to answer that by having NBA futures betting explained in this piece.

Championship Futures: The Long-Haul Grind

Winning a championship in the NBA requires a team to be consistently good over the course of a season. Besides making it to the playoffs, the eventual champion also needs to win FOUR best-of-7 series in the postseason.

That team usually has depth, good health, quality coaching, and some luck in avoiding injuries. Longshots and mid-value teams are, for those reasons, not generally part of your long-term NBA betting strategy, but those same teams may have some real value as a short-term pick, which is what you get in the NBA Cup.

The NBA Finals odds structure definitely favors teams who perform well over the long haul, with those longshot teams seeing their odds drift in the wrong direction as the season progresses.

NBA Cup: The Tournament Wildcard

The NBA season as a whole is a grind, with each team playing 82 games just to make the playoffs.

After that, the eventual champion needs to win 16 more but could potentially play 28 if each series went to the full 7 games. Compare that to the NBA Cup format analysis, where the winner could get there by winning just 7 games total. In short, the Finals requires consistency over a long period of time, while the Cup winner can be a team that gets hot early, just as the LA Lakers did in the first year of the Cup.

Single-elimination tournament betting is a whole lot different than predicting the outcome of a 7-game series, where the cream tends to rise to the top.

Finding the Value: Why Mid-Tier Teams are Cup Sleepers

Every season, we see a team or two come out of the gates hot, but we all know that they will eventually fade over the course of the full season. Again, we are talking about teams like the 2023 Lakers. These teams tend to know that they are not championship caliber, but they do feel that they can get out to a hot start, which gives them short-term motivation in tournament play. Perform a betting value analysis to identify those teams, all of whom are likely to be high-reward low-risk futures bets.

Key Betting Angle: Look for Motivation and Matchups

So, what should you be looking for as a potential NBA Cup winner? Look for mid-tier teams that have filled holes in the offseason or who have young talent looking to make their mark in the league. This can lead to short-term motivation in tournament play and can make you some early season money that you can then apply to long-term strategic futures betting tips.

Final Thoughts

The NBA Cup now gives you two chances at NBA futures success, so grab that opportunity. Think about NBA Cup VS Championship futures betting value and wager accordingly. Keep in mind that early season success does not guarantee the same in the future. The futures paradox is real, so think about that before you wager.

Ready to Test Your NBA Draft Picks with MyBookie Today?

Now’s the time to learn to bet NBA with confidence.

Create your account at MyBookie.ag today and dominate the draft night action with the best sportsbook lines in the game!

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

MyBookie Vegas NBA Betting
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Hoops!

Want To Learn More on NBA Betting?

This is our NBA Draft Betting Guide that will provide insights on player prop markets, draft position odds, team-specific picks, and everything you need to outsmart the sportsbook on Draft Night!