2021 Outback Bowl Betting: Penn State vs Arkansas Odds

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The Penn State Nittany Lions head south to Tampa, Florida on Jan. 1 to throw down against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Penn State had a decent season. So did Arkansas who surprised many by playing competitively in the SEC. Can the Nittany Lions overcome the loss of a few key players? Or will the Razorbacks win and cover as the slight favorite? Keep reading for College Football Bowl odds, analysis, and a free pick for Arkansas versus Penn State. 

NCAAF Betting Analysis for Penn State Nittany Lions Vs Arkansas Razorbacks

Outback Bowl Odds | Penn State vs Arkansas Betting Preview

• When: Saturday, Jan. 1 at 12:00 pm ET
• Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
• TV / Streaming: ESPN 2/ ESPN+
• ATS Odds: Arkansas -2   
• Moneyline Odds: Penn State -135 / Arkansas +115  
• Over/Under Odds: 48    

Why bet on Penn State versus Arkansas?

Penn State lost to Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions played well in all three. The Wolverines beat the Lions 21-17. Penn State hung with the Buckeyes 33-24 and the Nittany Lions lost to Michigan State by just 3, 30-27. Penn State is capable of beating a good SEC team. 

Penn State Nittany Lions Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 380.8

• Passing Yards: 274.4

• Rushing Yards: 106.3

• Points Scored: 26.3

• Turnovers: 5

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 343.9

• Passing Yards: 208.3

• Rushing Yards: 135.6

• Points Scored: 16.8

• Takeaways: 12

Why bet on Arkansas versus Penn State?

Arkansas surprised everyone by going 8-4 and finishing fourth in the SEC. The Razorbacks played well in every game save for an early season loss to Georgia. Arkansas’ offense averages 217.8 rushing yards per game. When the Hogs get their running game going, they can play with any team in the nation. 

Arkansas Razorbacks Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 441.3

• Passing Yards: 223.6

• Rushing Yards: 217.8

• Points Scored: 31.5

• Turnovers: 5

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 371.3

• Passing Yards: 215.1

• Rushing Yards: 156.3

• Points Scored: 24.0

• Takeaways: 11

Relevant Trends for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Arkansas Razorbacks

• Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss
• Penn State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the SEC
• Over is 4-0 in the Nittany Lions’ last 4 bowl games
• Razorbacks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass
• Arkansas is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite
• Under is 8-1 in the Razorbacks’ last 9 bowl games

Outback Bowl Final Betting Prediction

The Nittany Lions allow over 135 rushing yards per game. That will be their undoing in this.

Arkansas rushed for 110 versus Alabama’s defense. The Crimson Tide allows an average of 84.1 rushing yards per game. The fact the Hogs rushed for over 100, and easily covered by losing by just 7, tells us almost everything we must know about this game.

The Razorbacks finished their season winning 4-of-5 while Penn State struggled to a 2-3 finish in their last 5. To make matters worse for the Nittany Lions, defenders Ellis Brooks, Brandon Smith, and Jaquan Brisker won’t play in this.

Brisker is a safety and Brooks and Smith are linebackers, which means the Nittany Lions will be missing 3 of their best run stuffers. If the Lions commit to stopping the run, Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson is good enough to beat Penn State’s secondary. Razorbacks win and cover.   

Outback Bowl Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks  

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