The national tile hopes for No. 13 Baylor ended last week in blowing a big lead and losing to Oklahoma, but the Bears can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game – opposite the Sooners – with a win Saturday as a Mybookie NCAAF betting favorite against now-unranked Texas.
How to Bet Texas vs Baylor College Football Week 13 Odds & Game Info
- When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
- Where: McLane Stadium
- TV: Fox Sports 1
- Live Stream: Fox Sports Go
- Radio: SiriusXM
- Opening NCAAF Lines: Baylor -5.5 (Total 59)
Samford vs Auburn 2019 College Football Week 13 Lines & Expert Prediction
Texas vs Baylor Last Season
Baylor was a 23-17 loser at Texas last year. Shane Buechele (now at SMU) came on for injured quarterback Sam Ehlinger early in the first quarter and UT won when the Bears’ final pass sailed through the back of the end zone. Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer drove the Bears from their own 3 to the Texas 17 before he had to rush his final three throws under intense pressure.
Texas defensive end Charles Omenihu had two sacks and was chasing Brewer on the last three plays. Brewer passed for 245 yards and a touchdown for the Bears.
The Bears are 27-77-4 all-time against Texas, including a 16-31-2 mark in Waco. The Horns have won the past four. BU last defeated Texas in Waco on Dec. 7, 2013, the final game at Floyd Casey Stadium, with a 30-10 win that clinched Baylor’s first ever Big 12 Conference championship.
Why Bet on Texas?
The Horns’ chances of reaching the Big 12 title game for a second straight season took a near-death blow last week in a 23-21 loss at Iowa State that knocked UT out of the new College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings and AP Top 25. Connor Assalley kicked a 36-yarder as time expired for ISU, which was favored over Texas for the first time in school history. Brock Purdy had 354 yards passing and two TDs, and he led the Cyclones 63 yards in three minutes to set up Assalley’s winner. The Longhorns are 10-6 in one-possession games (decided by eight points or less) since the start of the 2018 season.
Horns QB Sam Ehlinger completed 22-of-40 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 27 yards. He is responsible for 73 total touchdowns since the start of the 2018 season. Ehlinger is one of only two Power Five QBs to account for at least 70 touchdowns in that stretch. It was his sixth game with at least three passing touchdowns this season, the most in school history.
Ehlinger joined Colt McCoy (2006, 08-09) as the only QBs in Texas history to throw at least 25 touchdowns in multiple seasons. He’s the third quarterback in school history to surpass 8,000 career passing yards (8,121). Ehlinger needs 359 passing yards to reach 3,000 for the season. Would be the eighth 3,000-yard passer in Texas history and the first to reach the mark in only 10 games.
More Numbers
Devin Duvernay caught nine passes for 107 yards to become the 10th player in school history with 2,000 career receiving yards (2,099). Duvernay surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the season (entered with 910). He is only the second receiver in Texas history to reach 1,000 receiving yards in 10 games or less (Jordan Shipley, 2009). It was Duvernay’s fourth-straight game with 100 receiving yards, which is the longest streak by a Longhorn since Roy Williams did so in seven-straight games across the 2002 and 2003 seasons.
Saturday will mark Texas’ final road game of the regular season. The Longhorns are 2-2 in such matchups, including a Big 12 Conference win over West Virginia back in October. Texas has won 19 of the 20 games it has outgained its opponent under Tom Herman. The Longhorns are 18-2 under Herman when outrushing their opponents, and have won 12 of the last 13 instances. Texas is 11-2 in games following losses in three seasons under Herman.
Team Stats
Offense- Points per Game: 36.10
- Passing Yards: 300.60
- Rushing Yards: 161.10
- Yards per Play: 6.16
Defense
- Points per Game: 29.90
- Passing Yards: 305.00
- Rushing Yards: 140.00
- Yards per Play: 6.25
Why Bet on Baylor?
The Bears fell from the ranks of the unbeatens last week with a shocking 34-31 home loss to Oklahoma – shocking being Baylor led 28-3 midway through the second quarter and 31-17 entering the fourth. Gabe Brkic kicked a 31-yard field goal with 1:45 left after Jalen Hurts threw four touchdown passes in a big comeback for OU. The Bears had one more chance after the field goal.
They got to the Sooners 40 before linebacker Nik Bonitto’s interception with 29 seconds left. Baylor will almost surely get another shot at OU in the Big 12 title game.
The 31 points in the first half are the most scored by the Bears in a Big 12 game this season. The 31 first half points were the most for Baylor in a first half of a Big 12 game since scoring 42 in the first half vs. Kansas on Oct. 15, 2016. Through 10 games the Bears have held opponents to just 51 total first half points and only 26 second quarter points.
Charlie Brewer threw two touchdown passes to Denzel Mims and ran for two more in the first half for Baylor. Brewer now has 9 rushing TDs on the season and 16 for his career, giving him sole possession of fourth place on the career rushing TDs list by a QB at Baylor. Brewer now ranks second in program history with 574 completions after 18 against OU, moving him past Shawn Bell (559). It was the sixth career multi-TD performance for Mims and fourth this year. Mims is the only FBS player with at least eight receiving touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.
Good Defense
BU has forced multiple turnovers in seven times in 2019 and rank second nationally with a takeaway in 12 consecutive games dating back to 2018’s win over Texas Tech. Baylor leads the Big 12 and ranks 24th nationally in scoring defense (20.5 ppg), the lowest for BU since 1995.
BU has 33 sacks in 10 games, No. 4 in program history, and need seven more to tie the record of 40 set in 1992. The Bears are tied for first in the Big 12 with a +7 turnover margin through 10 games, after a combined turnover differential of -23 in 2017 and 2018.
Team Stats
Offense- Points per Game: 34.90
- Passing Yards: 263.60
- Rushing Yards: 180.70
- Yards per Play: 6.62
Defense
- Points per Game: 20.50
- Passing Yards: 219.00
- Rushing Yards: 137.20
- Yards per Play: 4.73
Texas vs Baylor College Football Week 13 Betting Trends
- Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Longhorns are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in November
- Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 13
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Texas’ last 15 games on the road
- Bears are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Texas
- Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in November
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baylor’s last 8 games when playing as the underdog
Expert Final Score Prediction for Texas vs Baylor
Texas 30 – Baylor 31
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