USC vs. #6 Oregon Game Prediction and Preview for Week 11

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The wheels are falling off for one-time Top 10 team and former Pac-12 favorite USC as the Trojans have dropped three of four to fall out of the national title picture and from the Top 25. 2023 NCAAF Expert Analysis USC vs. #6 Oregon | MyBookie Sportsbook |

They still have a shot to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game but not if they lose Saturday at No. 6 Oregon, which is solidly favored on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet USC at Oregon NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, 10:30 PM ET
Where: Autzen Stadium
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening NCAAF Lines: Oregon -15 (total 73.5)

Series History

USC is 39-22-2 all-time against Oregon and of course both schools will be going to the Big Ten next year along with UCLA and Washington. These schools haven’t met since 2020.

Why Bet on USC Trojans?

Southern Cal (7-3) lost 52-42 at home to No. 5 Washington on Saturday as the Huskies totaled 572 yards. Caleb Williams passed for 312 yards and three touchdowns for the Trojans, who have lost three of four despite another prolific outing from the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and his offense. Williams also rushed for a score and has had 8 games this season in which he has accounted for 4 TDs or more.

Raleek Brown, Darwin Barlow and Williams rushed for TDs, while Tahj Washington, Brenden Rice and Mario Williams caught scoring passes in front of a sold-out Coliseum for USC’s 100th Homecoming weekend.

The offenses combined for 1,087 yards, but Washington repeatedly made bigger plays at key moments. The Huskies never trailed in the second half after Williams’ fumble deep in USC territory allowed Washington to take a 35-28 lead on Johnson’s third TD run 20 seconds before halftime. USC played without Pac-12 rushing leader MarShawn Lloyd, who sat out with a previously undisclosed injury. Backup Austin Jones had 11 rushes for 127 yards. It was his first 100-yard rushing game this season, fourth as a Trojan. WR Tahj Washington caught a 41-yard TD pass in the second quarter. He finished the game with 8 catches for 122 yards. It was his fourth 100-yard receiving game of the season and seventh of his USC career.

The 35 first-half points by Washington were the most points the Huskies have ever scored in a game against the Trojans (previous high of 34 in 1960, now 52). USC gave up at least 40 points overall for the fifth time in its last six games.

“We didn’t play very well,” Coach Lincoln Riley said. “Biggest thing was the run game. Way too many big plays, and then some of our worst ball was on some of the biggest plays of the game. Like the third and extra-long where we had a chance to sack him and he gets out and makes a crazy play there in the end zone. A couple other key third-down plays where we had chances to get off the field and we didn’t. We did not make enough plays obviously to get enough stops to win.”

On Monday, Riley fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Grinch, who was Oklahoma‘s defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021 before leaving for USC alongside Riley, led a unit that allowed an average of 34.5 points per game this season and was in the bottom 30 in the country in nearly every statistical category, including 120th in rushing defense and 107th against the pass.

Even going back to last season, when USC finished the year allowing 47 points to Utah in the Pac-12 title game loss and 46 points to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl defeat, Grinch had been the subject of much criticism surrounding his and the unit’s performance. Riley named D-line coach Shaun Nua and linebackers coach Brian Odom as co-defensive coordinators for the rest of the season.

Following Grinch’s final game Saturday, three Trojans explained that defenders were frequently out of position pre-snap against Washington. Huskies’ running back Dillon Johnson’s big performance was evidence that USC players lined up in the wrong spots, logging a career-high 256 rushing yards. What was jarring was that 129 of his yards were before contact. UW’s 316 yards on the ground were more than triple the Huskies’ average output on the year.

“All the big runs I would say when somebody is not in their gap or somebody’s not lined up,” USC safety Calen Bullock said Saturday. “That’s what happens, you see big runs. Preach everyone doing their job and big runs, just too many explosives.”

“Kind of looked like guys weren’t ready to make the play,” senior linebacker Mason Cobb said postgame Saturday.

Why Bet on Oregon Ducks?

No. 6 Oregon (8-1) controls its destiny to reach the Pac-12 title game but wouldn’t any longer with a loss here. The Ducks slaughtered Cal on Saturday, 63-19. Bo Nix accounted for nearly 400 yards of offense with six touchdowns, and Tex Johnson piled up 255 all-purpose yards: He caught 12 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns, and he also had 75 yards returning punts. Those were the most receptions by a Duck since Dillon Mitchell had 14 against Stanford on Sept. 22, 2018. Johnson has 31 catches for 396 yards and three touchdowns over his last four games after being held without a catch at Stanford on Sept. 30.

Nix completed 29-of-38 passes for 386 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for two touchdowns. He matched career-high with six total touchdowns – the game as a Duck with five or more total TDs. It was Nix’s first game this season with multiple rushing touchdowns, sixth as a Duck and eighth in his career. It was his 11th straight game with at least two touchdown passes.

The former Auburn transfer now has 19 rushing touchdowns in 22 games as a Duck and leads all active QBs with 37 career rushing touchdowns. He ranks ninth in NCAA history with 15,062 career total yards, tied for 11th with 1,157 career completions, 17th with 13,567 career passing yards and 19th with 131 career total touchdowns. Nix is five rushing yards away from 1,500 for his career. He has 529 career completions while at Oregon, good for seventh in program history. Nix is 242-of-323 (74.9%) for 2,998 yards and 32 touchdowns in 11 career games at Autzen Stadium. He also has 10 rushing TDs.

Oregon surpassed 500 yards for the seventh time this season, amassing 597 total yards of offense. The Ducks had a season-high 444 passing yards, the first game with over 400 passing yards since posting 412 last season vs. California. UO threw for five touchdown passes as a team, most since throwing five against UCLA a season ago. Oregon has now scored over 30 points in all nine games this season. It scored double-digit points in three of four quarters in the game, and in 21 of 36 quarters this season.

The Ducks overcame a slow start that saw them double their turnover total for the season, to four, and commit nine penalties. But the prolific duo of Nix and Johnson more than made up for those sloppy moments, and the UO defense held an opposing offense to one or fewer touchdowns for the sixth time in nine games this season.

That unit forced two fumbles on the day and also five three-and-out by the Golden Bears, who came into the day averaging 32.3 points per game. It was the sixth time this season holding its opponent under 20 points for Oregon (6-0 in those games).

“We put ourselves in some tough positions at times, didn’t play to our standard of play, certainly in the first half,” UO coach Dan Lanning said. “But I thought our guys overcame that and … showed flashes of what we can be.”

College Football Expert Prediction

Oregon 44, USC 35

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