A Closer Look At The 2017 NFL Season AFC East Win Total Over/Under Picks
New England 11.5 WinsHome: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Houston Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, Falcons, Carolina Panthers Away: Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raiders, Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints
Analysis: The best way to look at New England Patriots’ 2017 schedule is to simply look for the likely losses they’ll suffer, although, from where I’m sitting, it won’t be very many and apparently oddsmakers agree with the Pats being favored to win every game this coming season. Basically, I’ve got New England suffering road losses against the Denver Broncos in Week 10, the Oakland Raiders in Week 11 and Miami Dolphins in Week 14. After winning all eight of their home games a year ago, I’ve actually got the Patriots falling in their regular season opener at home against Kansas City to finish with 12 wins at the very least in 2017.
Pick: Over 11.5 Wins
Miami 7.5 WinsHome: Bills, Jets, New England Patriots, Raiders, Broncos, Tennessee Titans, Buccaneers, Saints (in London) Away: Bills, Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Panthers, Falcons
Analysis: Things are looking up in South Beach after the Dolphin went 10-6 and made the playoffs last season. In 2017, I’ve got Ryan Tannehill and company winning their first three games of the season by beating Tampa Bay at home and the Chargers and Jets on the road. I’m thinking Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints get the rare road win in South Beach in Week 4 before the Fins go on to beat Tennessee at home a week later. A road loss at Atlanta will come in Week 6, followed by a home win against the Jets. A pair of losses will come after that in Baltimore and at home against Oakland before the Fins get the road upset at Carolina in Week 10.
After their bye in week 11, Miami will fall at New England and at home against Denver before they rebound with a huge win over the Patriots at home in Week 14. I think the Fins could sweep the Bills in Weeks 15 and 17 while suffering a road loss in Kansas City in between those division clashes as Miami finishes at 9-7 or 10-6 in a best case scenario. As a side note, Miami finished a dismal 26th in passing last season and I still don’t trust Ryan Tannehill – and neither should you!
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
NY Jets 5.5 WinsHome: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Falcons, Panthers Away: Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Cleveland Browns, Saints, Buccaneers
Analysis: The Jets had a dysfunction-filled 2017 campaign by winning just five games – and they still don’t have a viable quarterback situation in place heading into 2017. Simply put, I see another five wins in New York’s future as they beat the Dolphins at home in Week 3, Jacksonville at home a week later and Cleveland on the road in Week 5. The Jets should be able to beat Buffalo at home in Week 9 and their last win of the season should come in Week 16 against the Chargers to finish just under their 2017 win total odds in what could be Todd Bowles’ last season in the Big Apple.
Buffalo Bills 6 WinsHome: Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Broncos, Raiders, Saints, Buccaneers, Indianapolis Colts Away: Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Chiefs, Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Falcons, Panthers
Analysis: With enigmatic head coach Rex Ryan gone, the Bills will look to improve in a big way under new head coach Sean McDermott. I like the Bills to beat the Jets in Week 1, followed by a road loss at Carolina, a home loss against Denver, and a pair of road losses at Atlanta and Cincinnati.
Following their Week 6 bye, I’ve got the Bills losing at home against Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers and Derek Carr and the Raiders before hitting the road for another loss against the Jets. In Week 10, Buffalo will fall at home against drew Brees and the Saints before upsetting Philip Rivers and the Chargers in Los Angeles. Over their final six games, I think it’s quite possible that Buffalo’s only win comes at Miami in their regular season finale. While I’ve only penciled in the Bills for three wins here, I think the more likely scenario is that they somehow find a way to win five games or six at most. Either way, I believe the Under 6 wins is the pick for the Bills in 2017, mostly because they’re a team in transition and have an extremely difficult schedule.
Pick: Under 6 Wins