Super Bowl Contenders or Overhyped? A Breakdown of the Bills’ NFL Odds and Props for the Season

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While we do have to look at what a team does over the course of the entire season, it is worth noting that the playoffs are almost like starting fresh. 2024 MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Odds, American Football NFL Lines | Buffalo Bills Postseason Betting Analysis

Anything can, and often does, happen in the postseason, which includes lower seeded teams going on an unexpected run. You also need to look at how teams ended the regular season, as we very often see a team get hot at just the right time, which then carries on over into the postseason. I think it’s fair to suggest that the Buffalo Bills might well be one such team. While their road to the playoffs was not really what we expected, they are in and looking good. Will that translate to another deep run for a team that many people think is overdue for a championship? Let’s take a closer look.

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Regular Season Recap

Much of this season was spent asking what is wrong with the Buffalo Bills, which seems odd now when you consider that they won their division and ended the season with an 11-6 record. There were moments, though, when they were below the playoff cut line. They opened the season with a loss to the Jets, but they shook that off to win 3 in a row and make it seem as though it was business as usual.

The next 8 games are where things really started to go wrong, with the Bills going 3-5 during that run. The division looked out of reach and a playoff spot far from guaranteed. With the pressure mounting, the Bills got hot at the same time as the Miami Dolphins got crippled by injuries. The Bills won 5 in a row, including a win over Miami in the final game of the season, winning the AFC East and picking up the #2 seed in the process.

Stats, Trends, and Odds

While finishing up as the #2 team in the AFC is huge, it is certainly no guarantee of success, although having home field advantage is big. We will get to that in a moment. The Bills delivered a balanced attack this season, finishing in the top 10 in YPG through the air and on the ground. Defensively, they were solid, too, surrendering just 18 PPG, good for 4th overall this season.

Nabbing that #2 seed could well prove to be a game changer for the Bills, as this is a team that was just .500 in road games this season. Compare that with the fact that they were 7-2 in their own building, and you can clearly see why home field advantage is so important. This team looks confident right now with a 5-game win streak ahead of the weekend.

The odds shortened dramatically for the Bills over the final weeks of the season, to the point where they are now the 2nd favorite behind Baltimore to win the AFC. They are currently +265 to win the conference, as well as sitting at +550 to win the Super Bowl. Those are very good odds for a team that looks to be on the type of positive run that very often goes all the way to a Lombardi Trophy. First, things first, is a tricky home game against the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend.

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Buffalo Bills 2023 Season Betting Analysis | MyBookie NFL Betting Preview

Buffalo Bills | 64th season as a member of the National Football League
Owner: Terry and Kim Pegula
Head coach: Sean McDermott
Home field: Highmark Stadium | Orchard Park, New York

The Buffalo Bills started the 2022 NFL Regular Season the chalk to win it all. Buffalo ended the regular season with a dynamite 13-3 record, but Buffalo struggled to an 8-7-1 against the spread record. How will the Bills perform straight up and against the spread this season? Also, will the over make a comeback after the total on Bills’ games went 6-10 over under in 2022?

Check out Buffalo’s betting analysis from last season, analysis for this season, and SU, ATS, and O/U predictions for 2023. Let’s see if Buffalo Bills have what it takes to back the betting odds to win the Super Bowl.

What is Buffalo’s Straight Up Prediction this Season?

Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, which is why the Bills went 13-3 last season. But as good as Allen is, he didn’t dominate as thoroughly in 2022 as he did in 2021.

The Bills still managed to lose just 3 games last season. We shouldn’t expect a similar excellent record in 2023.

Buffalo must play the vaunted NFC East. If the Bills lose to Dallas and Philadelphia but beat the Giants and Commanders, it’s 2 losses.

The Bills should split with the Jets and Dolphins. That’s 4 losses. The Bengals will beat Buffalo, which brings us to 5 losses. A sixth loss will come against Kansas City. We’re also predicting a seventh loss to happen either against the Broncos, the Raiders, the Buccaneers, or the Chargers, which means the Buffalo Bills will finish with a 10-7 record.

What will Buffalo’s Against the Spread Record be this Season?

Oddsmakers have a great idea of what lines to set on Buffalo games. Last season, the Bills went 8-7-1 ATS.

This season, the ATS record should be somewhat similar. Buffalo only played 16 games in 2022 because of Damar Hamlin’s medical emergency in the Monday night game versus the Cincinnati Bengals.

So if we add another game and take away the push, the Bills should go 8-9 ATS this season.

What Will Be the Over Under Total Record for Buffalo Bills’ Games in 2023?

Last season the over under total went 6 to the over and 10 to the under. Oddsmakers didn’t get a good idea of how Buffalo games would go score wise.

The reason could be because Buffalo’s defense ranked second in points allowed last season, giving up less than 18 per game. The defense won’t be as effective this season as it was last season.

The Bills hope to replace terrific starting linebacker Tremaine Edmunds with A.J. Klein. Klein is a good LB but he doesn’t have Edmunds’ speed. Also, safety Jaquan Johnson bolted to the Raiders.

We should see a close to even over under record. Buffalo will have to score more to win games and the Bills’ D won’t be nearly as effective as it was in 2022. Let’s go 9-8 over under the total.

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2023 Buffalo Bills Regular Season Schedule

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Prior to the start of every new NFL season, we all have a pretty good idea of who we think will be in contention to win the Super Bowl. The season seldom plays out as expected, though, and while one of the favorites may end up lifting the Lombardi Trophy, others will stumble and fall along the way. After all, only one team can win it all. Looking ahead to the coming season, there are some familiar teams at the top of the bookies board, with the Buffalo Bills once again among the favorites to end the season as the champions. They certainly looked well equipped on both sides of the football, but they have some tough tests ahead of them as they look to make the postseason, so let’s look at some of the bigger challenges on their NFL schedule to consider in your NFL betting odds.

Buffalo Bills: Top Games to Bet in all Regular Season Week 1-17| MyBookie NFL Betting Predictions

2023 NFL season | 104th season of National Football League in the United States
September 7, 2023–February 11, 2024

Week 1 at New York Jets

When: Monday, September 11, 8:15pm ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV/Streaming: ESPN/ABC

The AFC East looks to be a little tougher this season, with the Jets, who now have Aaron Rodgers under center, expected to be a whole lot better. We will get a good idea of just how good they might be in the opening week of the season. This is a game that might well set the tone for the East this season.

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Week 4 Vs Miami Dolphins

When: Sunday, October 1, 1:00pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV/Streaming: CBS

I promise that all the big games listed here are not divisional matchups, but the Bills have a pair of big ones in the opening month of the season. I was going to add the trip to Miami later in the season to this list, but I think this one might be bigger. This will be a chance for Buffalo to assert some early divisional dominance.

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Week 5 Vs Jacksonville Jaguars

When: Sunday, October 8, 9:30am ET
Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
TV/Streaming: NFLN

In recent years, this would have been viewed as a gimme type of game for the Bills, but the Jaguars are a team on the rise. This is still a game that Buffalo would expect to win in their own building, but it’s also a potential banana peel, assuming that the Jags continue their upward momentum in 2023.

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Week 9 at Cincinnati Bengals

When: Sunday, November 5, 8:20pm ET
Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
TV/Streaming: NBC

There are some who believe that the AFC is a 3-way race between the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals. If that is indeed the case, then this game is absolutely huge, as it may be a preview of a playoff matchup later in the year. This is about as tough a road game as you can ask for and one that may affect the conference seeding.

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Week 12 at Philadelphia Eagles

When: Sunday, November 26, 4:25pm ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
TV/Streaming: CBS

The Bills have a tough second half of the season, with yet another brutal road trip coming right before their bye week. The Eagles went to the Super Bowl last season and are considered the favorites to win the NFC. Could this be a potential Super Bowl preview?

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Week 14 Vs Kansas City Chiefs

When: Sunday, December 10, 4:25pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV/Streaming: CBS

In the last couple of seasons, the meetings between these two teams have been nothing short of legendary. The Bills and Chiefs are arguably the two best teams in the NFL and until that changes, this is a matchup that we will all have circled on the schedule.

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Week 15 Vs Dallas Cowboys

When: Sunday, December 17, 4:25pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV/Streaming: FOX

The last game on this list was a bit of a coin flip between this one and the game against the LA Chargers in Week 16. I went with the Cowboys, simply because I think this is a bigger test for the Bills, as well as being the more glamorous of the two games.

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Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills should head into the 2022-2023 NFL Regular Season the favorite to win Super Bowl 57. But with high expectations comes high spreads. No team should face higher spread lines this season than the Bills. Will Buffalo cover? Check out eight games on the Bills’ schedule that you should circle. We provided dates and an early NFL Betting prediction for each.

Buffalo Bills Must Bet Games During the Regular Season | NFL Betting Picks

2022-23 NFL Regular Season

When: Sep. 8, 2022 – Jan. 8, 2023

Buffalo at L.A. Rams

When: Week 1 – Thursday, Sep. 8

The Rams didn’t improve. Buffalo did by signing one of the players that led to Los Angeles’ Super Bowl victory, defensive end Von Miller. The two-time Super Bowl winning player will pressure Matthew Stafford all day. The Bills win and cover.

Buffalo at Kansas City

When: Week 6 – Sunday, Oct. 16

Kansas City is a Super Bowl contender. Last season, though, the Chiefs struggled to stop Josh Allen and the Bills. Tyrann Mathieu played for KC in 2021. He doesn’t this season. So the Chiefs might find it even more difficult to stop Allen and Buffalo. The Bills are the pick.

Buffalo vs Green Bay

When: Week 8 – Sunday, Oct. 30

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers can take over a game. But AR must find a couple of top targets because both Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Davante Adams are no longer in Green Bay. Buffalo takes on the Packers at home. The line won’t be out of control. So give the Bills the nod to win and cover.

Buffalo vs Cleveland

When: Week 11 – Sunday, Nov. 20

It’s difficult seeing Cleveland winning this straight up. However, if Deshaun Watson plays, and the indications are he’ll have served out his suspension by NFL Week 8, the Browns will put points on the board. Cleveland won’t win SU but the Browns will cover ATS.

Buffalo at New England

When: Week 13 – Thursday, Dec. 1

This is a trap game. New England will be better than many believe. Still, by week 13, Buffalo will have the best record in football and the Patriots will be a borderline wildcard team. Bills win straight up and cover the spread.

Buffalo vs Miami

When: Week 15 – Sunday, Dec. 18

It’s difficult not to like the Bills in this spot. But Miami is a division rival. Not only that, but because this takes place in Buffalo, the Bills will go off at an underlay spread. Dolphins cover for sure. If Buffalo overlooks Miami, a real possibility, the Fins will make the Bills pay with a moneyline victory.

Buffalo at Cincinnati

When: Week 17 – Monday, Jan. 2

Bills at Bengals on Jan. 2 could foreshadow this season’s AFC Championship. The two teams are similar. But Cincinnati is the home squad. Unless Joe Burrow doesn’t play, the Bengals should win the game and cover the spread.

Buffalo vs New England

When: Week 18 – Sunday, Jan. 8

The Bills may not have to win their final game of the season. New England almost certainly will have to win their final regular season game. The Patriots, because more should be at stake for them, has the edge. New England covers.

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Heading into July, one NFL franchise promises to attract more attention than any other. The Buffalo Bills are the early season chalk to win the 2023 Super Bowl. Not only is Buffalo the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but quarterback Josh Allen is the favorite to win NFL MVP. Will Buffalo live up to expectations? Keep reading for a Buffalo Bills 2022 Season NFL Betting Guide.

Buffalo Bills 2022 Season NFL Betting Guide

2022-23 NFL Regular Season

When: Sep. 8, 2022 – Jan. 8, 2023

Buffalo Bills Over/Under 11 ½

Buffalo plays in what should be a super competitive division, the AFC East. Miami, New England, and even the Jets have playoff potential. So if the Bills play in such a difficult division, do they have any chance of winning 12 games?

Buffalo plays 4 of their first 6 games on the road. Not only that, but every team they play on the road qualifies as a good team.

The Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs are legit playoff contenders. Buffalo could lose all four of those games.

But even if Buffalo loses 4 of their first 6, there’s a good chance the Bills go on a run and win at least 12. How is that possible?

The Bills have 6 home games in their last 11. If Buffalo wins all 6 at home, and we count the 2 wins before the bye, that’s 8 wins. So the Bills must find 4 more wins.

At the Jets, at the Lions, at the Patriots, at the Bears should be victories. So even if Buffalo starts the season with 4 losses in their first 6 games, they have a real shot of going over the win loss total.

Total Game Pick: Over 11 ½

Bills to win the AFC East -206

A team that wins 12 games should win their division. The odds on Buffalo aren’t overlaid by any stretch of the imagination.

But -206 aren’t underlay odds, either. -206 is a fair price to back the Bills to win the AFC East. Buffalo is the class of the division.

AFC East Odds: Fair

Buffalo to win the AFC Conference +320

To win their AFC East, Buffalo must end the season with a better record than the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and New England Patriots.

To win the AFC Conference, Buffalo must beat the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, and second tier contenders like the Raiders, Ravens, and Broncos.

As good as Buffalo is, the AFC is loaded. Cincinnati is flying the under the radar. The Chiefs will be just as good this season as last season and the other teams in the AFC West, Las Vegas, Denver, and the Bolts are all good enough make it to the Super Bowl.

+320 are underlay odds.

AFC Conference Odds: Underlay

Buffalo to Win the Super Bowl +610

So if +320 to win the conference are underlay odds, +610 to win the Super Bowl must also be underlay odds, right?

Not necessarily. No doubt that if Buffalo wins the AFC Conference they will have a great shot to win the Super Bowl. No team in the NFC this season is as talented as the Bengals and Chiefs.

It will be more difficult for the Bills to win the AFC than it should be for them to win the Super Bowl. So +610 constitutes fair odds.

Super Bowl Odds: Fair

QB Josh Allen to win NFL MVP +680

Allen means more to his team than any other player in the league. Not only that, but the Bills are favorites to win the Super Bowl. So all eyes will be on Allen from day one.

Still, +680 are short odds. Then again, no player will have as much of a chance to prove they deserve the award and two-time defending MVP Aaron Rodgers lost his stop target, Davante Adams, to the Las Vegas Raiders.

+680 on Allen to win NFL MVP are fair odds.

NFL MVP Odds: Fair

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The Buffalo Bills have never won a Super Bowl – memorably losing four straight Super Bowls in the early 1990s – but the 2021 team could be the franchise’s best in many years and is a legit title contender. Here’s a breakdown of the AFC East favorites.

NFL Buffalo Bills Season 2021

Bills win total: 11
To win AFC East: -150
To win AFC: +550
To win Super Bowl 56: +1200

Buffalo made a trade on Monday, although not one that will change any futures odds. The team traded defensive lineman and special teams contributor Darryl Johnson to the Carolina Panthers for a 2022 sixth-round pick. Johnson spent two full seasons with the Bills and totaled 25 tackles and two sacks in 31 games played. He ranked second on special teams with eight tackles in 2020.

The Bills were 3-0 this preseason, with star QB Josh Allen only playing in Saturday’s finale, a 19-0 victory over Green Bay. Allen, the 2020 NFL MVP runner-up completed 20 of 26 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns. With Stefon Diggs (knee) held out, Allen completed five passes to Gabriel Davis and four apiece to Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders while leading the first-team offense to 14 points on three drives against Green Bay’s second-string defense. If Davis, who was terrific as a rookie in 2020, can continue his preseason form into the regular season, the Buffalo Bills will have a top-five receiving corps in the NFL.

Diggs will be ready for Week 1 against Pittsburgh. After coming over in a trade from Minnesota, Diggs had a monster first season in 2020 with the Bills. He led the league in receiving yards (1,535) and receptions (127), and led his team in receiving touchdowns (eight). After posting three 100-yard receiving games through the first 12 games of the season, Diggs had three consecutive games of more than 100 yards during the final month of the regular season. Diggs had an immediate rapport with Allen, who also enjoyed a breakout season that included 37 touchdown passes and eight touchdown runs.

A year ago, Allen was voted as the 87th best player in the NFL’s ranking of the top-100 players, which is voted on by players around the NFL. Heading into 2021, Allen’s now up to No. 10 overall. Allen just got a monster contract extension as well. The players and coaches the Bills added or were able to keep, including offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, almost certainly make his arsenal better and comfort him with continuity.

Defensively, the Bills are counting on an improved pass rush and improved resistance versus the run this year from a unit that underperformed for the first time since Greg McDermott arrived to take over the team in 2017. The team has a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate in first-round end Greg Rousseau out of the University of Miami. According to Pro Football Focus Rousseau has had the highest percentage of any NFL player in applying pocket pressure to opposing QB’s this preseason.

Rousseau opted out of the 2020 season due to the coronavirus pandemic, but in 2019, he was a tremendous force on defense for the Hurricanes, totaling 54 tackles, 15.5 sacks, and 19.5 tackles-for-loss in 13 games. McDermott and defensive coordinator/assistant head coach Leslie Frazier both like to rotate their defensive line heavily, so expect the Bills to keep running waves of fresh rushers out there all year long.

The fact the Bills went 3-0 this summer means nothing. Or that they have won eight straight in the preseason dating back to 2018. The Bills were 0-4 the year they went to their first Super Bowl, 1990. The Detroit Lions were 4-0 in preseason the year they went 0-16 (2008).

Buffalo is a 6.5-point home favorite for Week 1 vs. the Steelers. The Bills beat visiting Pittsburgh 26-15 in Week 14 last year. Allen threw two touchdown passes, and safety Taron Johnson returned an interception 51 yards for a score.

Expert Prediction: 12-5 record, AFC East champion

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We are now just a matter of days away from the start of the season, which means that now might well be the best time to get in on the future bets in the NFL. Once teams start to pick up wins, you are going to see their odds shorten across the board, so now is when you are likely to get the best odds. We are going to look at all the teams in the league and talk about their chances of winning the division, conference, and Super Bowl, as well as looking at their win total for the year. Let’s have a look first at the Buffalo Bills’ team, along with their NFL odds.

Buffalo Bills 2020 Season Analysis | NFL Betting Predictions

One of the more interesting divisions to watch this season is going to be the AFC East, as there is a chance that someone other than the New England Patriots might actually win it. If we are being honest, though, the reality is that the Buffalo Bills look like the only team with a legitimate shot at ending the Patriots stranglehold. The Jets and Dolphins are rebuilding, but they are probably at least a year away from challenging. Can the Bills do it and make a run this season? Let’s take a closer look.

Bills Win Total (O/U 9)

The Buffalo Bills are still a long way off from the team that they were in the early 90’s, when they went to the Super Bowl in 4 straight seasons, albeit only to lose all 4. The win total this season is a sign that the Bills are being taken seriously again, and with some doubts on what the Patriots will be like this season, it would not be a surprise to see Buffalo match or better their 10-win total from last season. I am leaning towards the OVER.

Bills to Win the Division (+100)

The Bills pushed the Patriots for a good portion of the season last year before coming up short and finishing in second in the East with a 10-6 record. You do get the sense that if they can match or better their 10-win total from last season, they could well be heading to the playoffs as a division winner. They are probably going to need to see more from their offense, but the Bills are not a bad bet at a decent price.

Bills to Win the Conference (+1100)

The Bills made some very nice additions to their squad in the offseason, including adding a legitimate WR threat in Stefon Diggs. There are still some question marks regarding Josh Allen at QB, but with some more weapons at his disposal, we might see more out of him this coming season. Even with the strengthening of their team, the Bills are not seen as a very sexy pick. They would need a lot of things to go their way for them to get out of the AFC.

Bills to Win the Super Bowl (+2100)

The old says dictates that it is defense that wins championships, but you also need an offense that can get the job done when the going gets tough. The Bills certainly have things covered on the defensive side of the football and look better on offense for this year. I still have my doubts about Josh Allen, though, so I find it very hard to pick the Bills as a serious threat to win the Super Bowl.

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Did you know that you can make NFL betting picks at MyBookie.ag right now? That’s right NFL gridiron gaming enthusiasts…thanks to the release of odds on virtually every game on the 2016 NFL regular season schedule, you can start making plans to cash in right now! With that thought in mind, let’s get started with my four ‘quick picks’ on a quartet of 2016 Buffalo Bills (8-8 SU, 8-7- 1 ATS) regular season games.

In Depth Report on the Buffalo Bills Top NFL Spreads for Upcoming 2016 Regular Season

Week 5

Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams (-1)

Analysis: The Bills lost their final four road games a year ago while going 0-3- 1 ATS, but this is a game they could and should win outright in my estimation. Despite their underachieving ways last season, the Bills managed to rank in the middle third in every significant defensive category and I believe their aggressive defense will out the clamps on a Rams offense that ranked a dismal 29th in scoring (17.5 ppg) last season and a pitiful 32nd in total offense (297.7 ypg). Besides, there aren’t many coaches I’d say underachieve more than Rex Ryan, but Jeff Fisher is one of them!

The Pick: Buffalo 27 Los Angeles 24

Week 8

New England Patriots (-3) at Buffalo

Analysis: The Bills may have lost both of their regular season meetings against the Patriots a year ago, but Rex Ryan teams always give Bill Belichick ballclubs the toughest way to go and I expect this Week 8 AFC east divisional showdown to be no different. Buffalo has lost two straight home games against Tom Brady and company and four of six overall, but I like them to snap their losing ways in this contest by getting the outright home win in a stunner!

The Pick: Buffalo 30 New England 28

Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo (-5)

Analysis: The Jaguars are a respectable 5-5 SU and ATS over their last 10 road games, but the Bills won their final four home games in 2015 and have the far better defense, quarterback and starting running back in this Week 12 affair. With the Bills looking to extract some revenge for their narrow 34-31 loss to the Jags last season, I say this one is a lock!

The Pick: Buffalo 31 Jacksonville 24

Week 16

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo (-3.5)

Analysis: The Bills beat the Dolphins in both of their AFC East divisional matchups last season and will do so again in this contest with Rex Ryan’s defense forcing Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill into a couple of costly turnovers. Buffalo is 5-1 SU and ATS over the last half-dozen meetings against the Fins and will improve on that mark as my final NFL online betting picks selection in this Week 16 showdown.

The Pick: Buffalo 31 Miami 20