NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Texans Host Colts Without DeShaun Watson

AFC South NFL Season Win Total Over/Under Betting Picks

Written by on May 24, 2017

Will either Tom savage or Deshaun Watson help the Houston Texans finally win more than nine games? Can Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans take another step forward after their impressive nine-win breakout season from a year ago?

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Can Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts take a step forward after finishing at 8-8 to get back into the postseason and last but not least, can Tom Coughlin and new head coach Doug Marrone lift the floundering Jacksonville Jaguars to new heights after years of struggles under former head coach Gus Bradley? Let’s find out the answers to these questions and much more as I offer up my expert picks on all four AFC South Super Bowl hopefuls and their 2017 regular season win total odds.

Here’s A Closer Look At The AFC South NFL Season Win Total Over/Under Betting Picks


AFC South

Houston 8.5 Wins

Home: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, Chiefs, Steelers, 49ers, Arizona Cardinals Away: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams Analysis: The Texans finished the 2016 season as the No. 1 team in the league in total defense while also finishing 11th in points allowed (20.5 ppg). Unfortunately, Houston also ranked an uninspiring 29th in scoring (17.4 ppg) and that just won’t cut it moving forward. I like the Texans to beat the Jaguars at home in Week 1 before losing on the road at Cincinnati and New England the next two weeks. I like the Texans to squeak past Tennessee at home a week later before falling to the Chiefs at home and then beating Cleveland in the Lone Star State just before their Week 7 bye. I’ve got a road loss at Seattle in Week 8, followed by a pair of wins at home against Indianapolis and at the L.A. Rams. I think Houston will lose at home to Arizona before hitting the road to beat Baltimore and losing at Tennessee. I then like Bill O’Brien’s squad to close out the regular season by winning at home against San Francisco and at Jacksonville before losing at Pittsburgh and at Indianapolis to finish at 9-7 again this coming season. Pick: Over 8.5 Wins 

Indianapolis 9 Wins

Home: Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Browns, Steelers, Broncos, 49ers, Cardinals Away: Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, Bills, Seahawks, Rams Analysis: Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts put up a solid 25.7 points per game to rank eighth in scoring, but the Colts need to address their defense after finishing 30th in total defense and in the bottom third in every other significant defensive statistical category. In 2017, I like Luck and the Colts to get home wins against their three AFC South division rivals while adding two more home wins against the Browns and 49ers to pick up five victories. I’m also going on record to say that I like Indianapolis to go 4-4 on the road while bagging road victories against the Jaguars, Bills and Rams to finish at 9-7 and challenge both Tennessee and Houston for division supremacy. Pick: 9 Wins

Tennessee 9 Wins

Home: Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, Rams, Seahawks, Raiders Away: Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Browns, Steelers, Dolphins, Cardinals, 49ers Analysis: Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans took a big step forward in going 9-7 last season and I believe they could be even better in 2017 seeing as how they finished the 2016 season ranked third in rushing (136.7 ypg) and 14th in scoring (23.8 ppg) despite finishing 30th against the pass and 17th in points allowed (23.6 ppg). This coming season, I like the still-blossoming Marcus Mariota to lead the Titans to bounce back nicely after dropping two of their first three games to Oakland and Seattle. I see home wins coming for Tennessee against the Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, and Rams and road win against the Jaguars, Browns, Dolphins and 49ers to finish the 2017 season at 10-6 and just narrowly over their 9-win Over/Under total. Pick: Over 9 Wins

Jacksonville 6 Wins

Home: Colts, Texans, Titans, Ravens (in London), Bengals, Chargers, Rams, Seahawks Away: Colts, Texans, Titans, Browns, Steelers, Jets, Cardinals, 49ers Analysis: The Jaguars won a paltry three games last season, but they made some sweeping changes by adding former head coach Tom Coughlin to run their daily operations and added veteran NFL lifer Doug Marrone to replace former head coach Gus Bradley. Still, Jacksonville has a long way to go to improve after finishing the 2016 season ranked in the bottom third in every meaningful offensive statistical category including scoring (19.9 ppg, 25th)  while ranking an identical 25th in points allowed (25.0 ppg). Still, it’s kind of hard to figure out right now just how much Marrone and Coughlin will be able to help Jacksonville improve. With that said, I think it’s quite possible that the Jaguars’ only wins in 2017 come in Week 4 at the New York Jets, Week 6 at home against the Rams, Week 11 at Cleveland and Week 16 at San Francisco. Hell, I’ll be nice and throw in a win against one of their division rivals to ‘gift’ them five victories. No matter what though, I certainly don’t see Jacksonville topping their 6-win Over/under total in 2017. Pick: Under 6 Wins