The New England Patriots made more changes during the offseason than any other team in the NFL. The changes were so significant that the Patriots have become the second choice to win the AFC East after top Super Bowl contender Buffalo. In Week 1, New England takes on rival Miami. Which team will take an early season lead in the division? Check out NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Dolphins at Patriots.
NFL Betting Preview for Dolphins vs Patriots
NFL Week 1: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
- When: Sunday, Sep. 12 at 4:25 pm ET
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
- TV / Streaming: CBS / Paramount +
- ATS Odds: New England -3 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Miami +135 / New England -160
- Over/Under Odds: O 43 ½ (-110) / U 43 ½ (-110)
Why bet on Miami versus New England?
One of the reasons the Patriots are second-choice to win the AFC East is because they drafted quarterback Mac Jones. The man who beat Jones for the starting position at Alabama plays for the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa has the requisite skills to be an All-Pro signal-caller. Also, the Dolphins’ defense, at least based on 2020 stats, is better than the Patriots’.
Miami Dolphins 2020 Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 339.0
- Passing Yards: 233.5
- Rushing Yards: 105.5
- Points Scored: 25.3
- Turnovers: 20
Miami Dolphins 2020 Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 367.9
- Passing Yards: 251.5
- Rushing Yards: 116.4
- Points Scored: 21.1
- Takeaways: 28
Why bet on New England versus Miami?
Starting Jones instead of Cam Newton isn’t the only difference between this New England team and the 2020 squad. The Patriots also acquired two of the best tight-ends in the league, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Starting running back Damien Harris averaged 5 yards per carry last season and the defense allowed a paltry 22.1 points per.
New England Patriots 2020 Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 327.3
- Passing Yards: 180.6
- Rushing Yards: 146.4
- Points Scored: 20.4
- Turnovers: 19
New England Patriots 2020 Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 353.8
- Passing Yards: 222.3
- Rushing Yards: 131.4
- Points Scored: 22.1
- Takeaways: 22
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Relevant Trends
- Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings in New England
- Home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings
- Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog
- New England is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite
- Under is 5-1 in the Dolphins last 6 games in September.
- Under is 5-1 in the Patriots last 6 games in Week 1
Miami versus New England Final Betting Prediction
Few NFL Week 1 games are as important as Patriots versus Dolphins. The winner could the set the tone for the season while the loser may not recover enough to challenge the Bills for the division title.
On paper, it’s difficult to separate Tagovailoa from Jones. Both played for Nick Saban in Steve Sarkisian’s offensive system at Bama. Tagovailoa was the more highly-regarded player, though.
Also, the Fins chose wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, Tagovailoa’s favorite target at Alabama and, arguably, the most talented wide receiver in this year’s NFL Draft. The Tua to Jaylen combination could be one of the season’s most effective.
Finally, Miami’s defense should be better in 2021 than it was in 2020 and it was fantastic in 2020. All systems point to a Miami cover for sure. A Dolphins victory on the moneyline is also a real possibility.
NFL Week 1 Pick: Miami Dolphins