Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans will look to take care of business at home in order to pull off the upset over Tom Brady and the visiting defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. With Houston looking to to snap a lengthy losing streak in this AFC rivalry, let’s find out if the Texans are the pick at home or whether the perennially-powerful Pats will get it done on the road.
Patriots vs Texans 2019 NFL Week 13 Lines, Betting Prediction & Pick
- When: Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 8:20 PM ET
- Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- NFL Odds: New England -3 / Total: 45
- Clear: 7°C/45°F
- Humidity: 48%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Wind: 7 mph NNW
- Cloud Cover: 3%
- Type of Stadium: Retractable
Why Bet On New England?
Despite being on the road in this matchup, there are a bunch of great reasons to back New England in this contest. First, the Patriots are phenomenal on defense. New England ranks a stellar first in points allowed (10.6 ppg). The Pats have held each of their last two opponents to 10 points or less while also holding four of their last five opponents to 13 points or less. New England also ranks an encouraging fifth in scoring (27.3 ppg) and they’ve won two straight in this rivalry since Deshaun Watson took over as Houston’s starter and eight straight in this series overall.
- Average Score For: 27.27
- Total Yards: 353
- Pass Yards: 260.91
- Rush Yards: 92.09
- Average Score Against: 10.64
- Total Yards: 256.09
- Pass Yards: 157.73
- Rush Yards: 98.36
Why Bet On Houston?
The Texans might be 3-point underdogs in this matchup, but there are a bunch of good reasons to believe the Texans will pull off the upset to cover the chalk. Houston has won three of their last four games including a hard-fought 20-17 win over Indianapolis last weekend. Then, there’s the fact that the Texans has gone 4-1 SU at home this season. Another good reasons to back the Texans is because they have an elite, MVP-caliber quarterback in Deshaun Watson (20 TD passes, 7 INTs) and a superstar wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins.
- Average Score For: 24.09
- Total Yards:
- Pass Yards: 244.73
- Rush Yards: 136.91
- Average Score Against: 22.64
- Total Yards:
- Pass Yards: 258.64
- Rush Yards: 108.64
NFL Week 13 Betting Trends for Patriots vs Texans
- Patriots are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games
- Patriots are 15-1 SU in the last 16 games
- The total went UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games
- Texans are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games
- Texans are 5-2 SU in the last 7 games
- The total went UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games
Patriots vs Texans Expert Analysis and Prediction
While I love Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, I’ll be the first person to admit that Houston has been wildly inconsistent this season and that just doesn’t bode well heading into this week’s matchup against New England. Houston’s 16-10 loss to Carolina in Week 4 and embarrassing 41-7 rout at the hands of Baltimore in Week 11, perfectly show Houston’s woes this season on the offensive side of the ball. The season-ending loss of superstar defensive end J.J. watt was also another huge blow for the Super Bowl-hopeful team. New England has been playing out of their collective minds on defense this season and I believe the Patriots defenders are going to turn this affair into an ugly street brawl that the Texans aren’t quite up for.
The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Conversely, Houston has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against their AFC counterparts. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against the Texans while the favorite in this series has gone 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. No matter how hard I try to envision a Houston upset win, I just don’t see it happening!
Pick: New England 23 Houston 17
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