3 Reasons to Bet the Over for Super Bowl 58

There are a few sporting events where even the most casual bettor feels the need to get in on the action. MyBookie Sportsbook | Early Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet the Over for Super Bowl

These are things like the Kentucky Derby, Indianapolis 500, the World Cup Final, and the Super Bowl. In terms of North American sports, there is no bigger deal than the Super Bowl, but if there is one thing annoying about the championship game, it’s that there is a 2-week gap between the Conference Championship Games and the Super Bowl. Sure, we have the Pro Bowl Game filling the gap in the weekend prior to the big game, but that one pales in comparison to the game we are all waiting for. On the positive side of things, the gap between games gives bettors time to really break down all the stats and trends to find the wagers that they believe will give them the best chance of cashing in some winning tickets for Super Bowl 58. For the purposes of this piece, we are looking at the OVER and giving you guys 3 reasons why you should consider making that NFL bet. Keep in mind that we are not suggesting that the OVER will hit. These are simply reasons why you might be swayed in that direction.

Check the Trends for Both Teams

We should start out by making everyone aware that the point total for Super Bowl 58 is currently sitting at 47 ½. With that number in mind, let’s look at some trends that might point toward the OVER being the way to go in the big game. The first thing to consider is that these teams have met in the Super Bowl before, with that game coming in 2020. The Chiefs won the game by a score of 31-20, and while it fell UNDER the point total in that particular game, it would have been enough to cover here.

If we stick to looking at these teams playing in the Championship Game in recent years, you see that the OVER is 3-1 both in the actual outcome and how it would have been had the total been set at 47 ½ for each of those 4 games.

Now, this is, of course, a neutral site game for both teams, but let’s look at it instead as a road game for both, as that is essentially what it is. The Chiefs are 4-2 O/U on the road in their last 6, while the 49ers are at 3-1. When they play one another, there is also a slight edge toward the OVER, which sits at 5-4 O/U in the last 9 meetings between the two teams competing for the Super Bowl.

There is nothing here that is what I would deem to be totally convincing, but there is definitely enough in these trends to have me seriously thinking about playing the OVER.

Bet Chiefs vs 49ers to Win
TV/Stream: CBS

Scoring is a Must in Potentially Close Games

This seems like a pretty obvious statement but take a minute to hear me out on this one. The bookies have this as being a close game, which is very likely when you consider that these two teams seem very evenly matched. When you look back at what has gone down through these playoffs, you get an idea of what I mean by scoring being a must.

Looking back at how these two teams go to the Super Bowl this season, you see these types of games for both. The Chiefs got into a close duel with the Buffalo Bills, eventually winning that one by a score of 27-24, which would have been enough to top the OVER for this game. Similarly, the 49ers got into a scoring duel with the Detroit Lions in the NFC Conference Championship Game, coming from behind to wipe out a big deficit and win 35-31, which again would have been more than enough to take care of the OVER in this game.

Sure, both of these teams have great defenses, too, but un these types of back and forth games that have multiple score changes, we do tend to see the points begin to add up and edge ever closer to that total number. Will we get that in this game?

So Many Offensive Game Changers

You could certainly argue that both of these teams are in the Super Bowl in large part because of their defensive play. In terms of points allowed per game, both the Chiefs and the 49ers were in the top 3 in the league, so it stands to reason that both are stingy when it comes to giving up points. That said, you look at the offensive stars on both teams and you see guys that have made a career out of making big plays and putting points on the board.

With the Kansas City Chiefs, we all know what Patrick Mahomes has done since coming into the league and how he makes the spectacular look somehow ordinary. Having Travis Kelce to throw to certainly helps, and you can bet that these two will hook up on a regular basis in the big game.

For the 49ers, Brock Purdy may not have been around that long, but he has already proven that he has big play ability. In Deebo Samuel, he has a reliable receiver who can corral those deep balls, while Christian McCaffrey can beat you in a number of different ways. Yes, both defenses are sound, but when there are that many great offensive players on the field, it stands to reason that we are going to see some splash plays that lead to points hitting the board, all of which takes us back to the second point made in this post.

I am still not sure what way I am going to play the point total in Super Bowl 58, but I may just have convinced myself that the OVER is the way to go.