Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Prediction and Betting Trends for Playoffs in Game 5

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The Milwaukee Bucks had the NBA’s best record this season and were favorites to win the NBA title but that’s no longer the case as they are down 3-1 in their first-round playoff series against the eighth-seeded Miami Heat, so it’s must-win time back at home for the Bucks in Game 5 on Wednesday, and they are heavy favorites. Check out the NBA betting analysis for this great game.

Heat vs. Bucks, Game 5 | 2023 NBA Playoff Expert Analysis

How to Bet Miami at Milwaukee NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET
Where: Fiserv Forum
TV: NBA TV
Stream: NBA.com, NBA TV app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Bucks -11 (total 219.5)

Why Bet on Miami?

The Heat looked cooked in Game 4 vs. Milwaukee in trailing by as many as 15 points but rallied for a 119-114 win behind a career-high 56 points from Jimmy Butler, tying the fourth-best scoring performance ever in an NBA playoff game. It also tied for the most ever in a home postseason game with Wilt Chamberlain on 3/22/62. Butler was 19 for 28 from the field, 15 of 18 from the foul line and added nine rebounds. The 56 points were a franchise playoff record.

Butler has recorded seven 40-point playoff games as a member of the Heat, tying the most in franchise history, while also posting 15 30-point playoff games, the third-most in team history. Butler has scored 1,137 postseason points as a member of the Heat, the fourth-most in team history. He has also dished out 253 playoff assists with Miami, the fourth-most in postseason team history, and has recorded 88 steals, also the fourth-most in postseason team history.

While Butler had 56 points, Bam Adebayo was next with 15. That 41-point difference in a team’s top-two scorers was tied for the second-largest in a playoff game in NBA history. Allen Iverson had 54 points in 2001 vs the Raptors, 44 more than any other 76ers player. Adebayo is probable for Wednesday’s Game 5 against the Bucks due to a hamstring strain but is expected to play.

Gabe Vincent had 10 points and a team-high eight assists in the win, putting together his best all-around game in weeks. He remains the starter, with the coaching staff preferring to keep Kyle Lowry coming off the bench. They appear to have found the right mix when it comes to both Lowry and Vincent playing key roles, meaning Vincent should remain starting.

Reserve guard Caleb Martin is +75 in the four games so far. Erik Spoelstra has recorded 99 career postseason wins, tying him with Red Auerbach for the sixth-most in NBA playoff history. Next on the list is Larry Brown with 100 victories.

The Heat have won 30 playoff series in postseason history, recording a .600 winning percentage (30-20), the fourth-highest winning percentage in NBA history.

Bet Heat to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The season is over with a loss Wednesday. In the 119-114 loss in Game 4, Giannis Antetokounmpo recorded a line of 26 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds after missing most of Game 1 and all of Games 2 and 3 with a lower back contusion. His 13 assists were the second-most in his postseason career, trailing only the 15 he had in Game 1 of the First Round at Miami in 2021.

It was Giannis’ third career playoff triple-double, more than the rest of Bucks postseason history combined (2). Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Paul Pressey each have one. Giannis also was responsible for six of the Bucks’ 14 turnovers and there were times when he appeared to be laboring some. With Giannis back, Bobby Portis played 13 minutes off the bench in his return to a reserve role, finishing with five points and four rebounds.

Brook Lopez blew up with 36 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks and two steals, arguably his best game of the season. His 36 points were the most he’s scored in any game (regular season or playoffs) in his five seasons as a Buck and the most he’s had in any game since 2017 (36, Feb. 15 vs. MIL with BKN). It was his fifth career playoff double-double as a Buck and his first 30-point double-double in his postseason career.

Milwaukee shot 13-for-40 from the 3-point line, a .325 percentage, in the loss. In the one game won by Milwaukee, they were 25-for-49 from three (.510). In the three losses in this series, the Bucks are 39-for-124 from the 3-point line, .315 percentage.

In four postseasons at Fiserv Forum, Wednesday’s game will be just the second time the Bucks are playing in a potential elimination game in their home arena. The only other time was in 2021 when Milwaukee, down 2-3 in the series, hosted Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Brooklyn. The Bucks fought off elimination before going on to win the series in seven games. Under coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks are 6-3 in Game 5s, including a 3-1 mark in Game 5s at Fiserv Forum.

Bench scoring has been a factor in this series. In Monday night’s loss, the Heat bench tallied 32 points to only 16 for the Bucks. In the series, the Miami bench has scored 174 points to only 128 for Milwaukee.

Only four top-seeded teams in NBA history have suffered the ignominy of being eliminated by the eighth seed.

Bet Bucks to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Game Trends

• Heat are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.
• Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.
• Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.
• Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
• Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Heat are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Expert Prediction

Bucks 125, Heat 115

Must see ending Bucks vs Heat, April 24

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