Beyond the EPL Odds: Expert Analysis of the English Premier Title Race

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Manchester City scored 3 goals in their final EPL game to win the English Premier League title. Although the Sky Blues victory happened less than a week ago, there’s no time to sit around and contemplate their victory. The new EPL Season starts on August 6. Check out the teams that have relegated to the EFL Championship and teams that will have promoted from the EFL to Premier this upcoming season so you can plan your bets against the Premier League odds. 

Promoted Teams Odds to Win the 2022-23 English Premier League Title | Relegated Teams to the EFL

2022-2023 English Premier League Season

When: Aug. 6, 2022 – May 28, 2023

2022-23 Premier League Odds to Win: Promoted Teams

Fulham +100000
AFC Bournemouth +150000
Huddersfield Town / Nottingham Forest  TBD

Relegated to the English Football League Championship

Burnley

The three teams at the bottom of the Premier League Standings at the end of the season automatically play in the EFL the following season, which is why Burnley must step back onto pitches in the FL in 2022 and 2023.

Burnley missed securing a Premier spot by 3 points. Leeds finished with 38. Burnley finished with 35. The good news for Burnley backers is that are one of the favorites to win the EFL this season. 

Watford

Second to last place Watford finished with 23 points, a point ahead of Norwich City. Watford’s goal differential in the Premier was terrible. Watford was -43 in goal differential. They will have a chance to win the EFL, but their chance aren’t nearly as good as Burnley’s. 

Norwich City

Norwich’s goal differential was an astronomical -61. From Matchweek 1, it was apparent that Norwich City didn’t belong in the Premier League. The team isn’t good enough to hang with any Premier power. Even mediocre teams like Leeds and Everton beat Norwich this past season. 

Promoted to the Premier League

Fulham +100000

Fulham amassed 90 points in the EFL. Fulham’s 90 points were 2 more than Bournemouth’s 88 points.

In 2020-2021, Fulham played in the EPL. They struggled, but there were moments where Fulham showed they can hang. Fulham has no chance of winning the Premier. But for sure they will provide an upset or two.

The question is which matches will Fulham win at big moneyline odds? Once the EPL releases their upcoming schedule, circle home matches versus Tottenham, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool.

Then the week of, decide if you wish to place money on the Fulham ML or the Fulham handicap. In a lot of matches, Fulham will be a +1 ½ over +100 or even over +200 home underdog on the handicap. 

AFC Bournemouth +150000

The strategy with betting on Bournemouth is the same with betting on Fulham. Circle home matches versus the Sky Blues, Blues, Reds, Hotspur, and Gunners and then decide to go with Bournemouth on the handicap or the moneyline. 

Huddersfield Town / Nottingham Forest  TBD

Huddersfield Town finished with 82 points. Nottingham Forest finished with 80 points. The two battle it out on March 29 in the English Football League Championship. 

The team that wins will end up the longest shot on the board to win the upcoming Premier season. 

Unlike Bournemouth and Fulham, it may not make sense to try and beat the EPL’s best with Huddersfield or Nottingham. Neither is good enough to hang with the top teams in the Premier.

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Unlike recent seasons where Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City squad had sewn up the Premier League title before the final month of play, three teams are in the running to lift the Premier Championship banner for the 2023-2024 season. Manchester City is the +130 chalk, but Arsenal and Liverpool both offer less than +200 odds to get it done.

Where will the Reds, Gunners, and Sky Blues finish in what has become an excellent Premier Season?

The race for the Premier League title tightens as the weeks tick by, all eyes are on the top contenders (Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City) with the most favorable EPL odds to win the title.

Premier League Title Race Analyzed with Expert Picks and Odds | MyBookie EPL Preview

2023–24 Premier League | 32nd season of the Premier League – 125th season of top-flight English football overall
August 11th, 2023 – May 19th, 2024

English Premier League Championship Prediction

Winner: Arsenal +145

Unlike the NFL, NBA, and MLB in the United States, UEFA Leagues don’t have a postseason. If you win the regular season, you win the title, which is why based on the remaining schedules, Arsenal is an excellent play at +145 to take this season’s Premier League title.

For the rest of April, the Gunners travel to Wolverhampton, host Chelsea, and then head to Tottenham. Then in May, Arsenal hosts Bournemouth, travel to Old Trafford to take on Man United, and finish off the season against Everton at home.

Arsenal’s goal differential is an excellent +51, much better than Liverpool’s +42 and Man City’s +40. The Gunners have a clear path to the title. So at the fantastic odds of +145, backing Arsenal looks like easy money.

Arsenal
EPL Winner Pick: Arsenal +145 | Bet on Premier League
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Matches

Second: Liverpool +190

Liverpool is tied with Arsenal at 71 points. So the team that would overtake Arsenal, should the Gunners falter, is most likely to be Pool not the Citizens.

The Reds shouldn’t stub their toe the rest of the way. Wins are almost all but assured against Crystal, Fulham, and Everton. Beating West Ham on the road on April 27 isn’t a slam dunk, but Pool has the edge. Aston on May 13 in Aston Villa will be a tough matchup. That could be the one that puts the title into Arsenal’s hands. So if you think, the Gunners falter and not the Reds, back Mohamed Salah and his mates.

Liverpool
EPL Second Pick: Liverpool +190 | Bet on Premier League
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Matches

Third: Manchester City +130

It feels like Pep knows the path to a Premier title isn’t there. Guardiola hasn’t given up on winning a second straight Premier Championship, but the Sky Blues appear more focused on a Champions League score than a Premier victory.

For City to overtake both Arsenal and Liverpool, the Reds and Gunners have a point lead as of April 11, not only must the Sky Blues win out, but they must hope neither Arsenal nor Pool also wins out. So in other words, the Premier title is out of Man City’s hands while City can play themselves to a second straight Champions League victory. Give City a chance, but they for sure shouldn’t be the favorite considering Arsenal and Liverpool have clearer paths to the title.

Manchester City
EPL Thrid Pick: Man City +130 | Bet on Premier League
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Matches

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The preseason games are all in the past now, with the 2019-20 English Premier League season set to begin on Friday afternoon. It will be last season’s runner-up Liverpool who gets the new season underway, going head to head with newly-promoted Norwich in what will likely be a rough introduction to the big time for the Canaries.

This season has a lot to live up to, as last year’s title race was one for the ages, with Manchester City and Liverpool going all the way down to the final game of the season. It was City who came out on top for the second straight year, and it will be City who comes in as the favorites to make it 3 in a row. Can anyone catch them, and which teams will be battling relegation? Let’s take a closer look at the upcoming season while making some English Premier League Betting predictions.

2019-20 English Premier League Odds to Win & Expert Preview

Odds to Win the 2019-20 English Premier League (Top 10)

Manchester City -150
Liverpool +215
Tottenham +1600
Manchester United +2500
Chelsea +2500
Arsenal +4000
Everton +15000
Wolverhampton +15000
Leicester City +30000
West Ham United +50000

EPL Winner & Champions League Positioning

The question that needs to be asked heading into the new season is whether any of the teams who fell behind City and Liverpool last season have done enough this offseason to mount a serious challenge. Given the gap that existed between the top two and the rest of the EPL last season, I would suggest that no-one has done enough to get there. I think we are looking at a similar tittle race as last year’s, with Liverpool ultimately getting their revenge by winning it all in the 2019-20 season.

If it is indeed another 2-horse race, then we are looking at a bunch of teams battling it out for the remaining two Champions League spots. It is likely to be the usual suspects going after a top 4 spot, with Arsenal looking like the team that might make the leap into 3rd. They have made some nice moves in the offseason and should improve in their second year under Unai Emery.

There are doubts about both Manchester United and Chelsea, both of whom will have new managers in place for their first full seasons with the club. United have made some positive moves, the biggest of which was landing Harry Maguire from Leicester. Chelsea is going to have a tough time filling the space left after the departure of Eden Hazard, while Tottenham is seeing their window of opportunity get a little smaller. I have Arsenal 3rd and United 4th.

Relegation Battle

As always, we have 3 newly promoted teams making the leap from the Championship to the EPL. History has shown us that the step up in class is very often too much to handle for these teams, which I believe ill be the case again this season. Norwich and Sheffield United look like a good bet to go right back down again, while Aston Villa may just have the pedigree to survive the drop.

Besides the new boys in the EPL, there are a few teams who struggled last season who are likely to find themselves right in the thick of the relegation battle this year. The most obvious choice here is Brighton, a team that barely survived last season and who looks like a very good pick to go down this year. Other teams sure to be sucked into the bottom half are Burnley and Southampton. In the end, though, I think Brighton, Sheffield United, and Norwich will be relegated.