Guardians at NY Yankees Expert Picks & Prediction

It’s a potential American League playoff preview to open a series on Tuesday night, as the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians visit the AL East-leading New York Yankees, who are favored on the MLB odds behind AL Rookie of the Year candidate Luis Gil.

Cleveland at New York Yankees: MLB Expert Analysis

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Yankees -167, Guardians +136 (total 8.5)
Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 4

Cleveland Guardians +136

Cleveland once had a big lead in the AL Central, but that has been cut way down, with both second-place Minnesota and third-place Kansas City now right back in the hunt. The Guardians were swept over the weekend in Milwaukee, scoring just four total runs. Cleveland’s bullpen gave up just two hits and two walks across nine scoreless innings, keeping the team within striking distance of Milwaukee in each game, only to see the offense fall short. All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase has converted 24 consecutive saves since May 20, tied for the third-longest streak in club history, but didn’t have a save opportunity in the series.

Lane Thomas

Outfielder Thomas went 0-for-3 against the Brewers on Sunday. Thomas appeared to be a good pickup by the Guardians at the trade deadline from Washington, but the 28-year-old outfielder hasn’t taken well to the change of scenery. He’s 6-for-53 (.113) with no home runs and no RBI in 16 games for the Guardians. While Cleveland is an AL-best 38-20 at home, it is now 34-32 away.

Jose Ramirez

All-Star third baseman Ramirez currently ranks 2nd in MLB with 100 RBI (NYY’s Aaron Judge – 111) and T6th in home runs (32). In his last 19 games since July 29, Ramirez is batting .324 with 8 home runs, 18 RBI, 9 stolen bases, 19 runs scored, a .759 SLG and a 1.140 OPS. He is one stolen base shy of his 2nd season with 30+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases (2018). Ramirez is one of 3 Clevelanders with a 30/30 season (Grady Sizemore, 2008; Joe Carter, 1987). Among active MLB players, only Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. has multiple 30/30 seasons (2019, ’23). Ramirez would be the second MLB player this season to reach 30/30 behind the LA Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani.

Matthew Boyd on the Hill

It’s lefty Boyd (0-0, 1.69 ERA) on the mound here – his second start of the season and for Cleveland overall, coming off Tommy John surgery. Boyd allowed one run on three hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision Tuesday against the Cubs. He struck out six. Boyd pounded the strike zone. He threw 61 of those 80 pitches for strikes (76.3%), including 19 straight strikes in the first and second innings. He faced 19 batters and saw 11 0–2 counts.

The 33-year-old Boyd pitched to a 5.45 ERA in 15 starts with the Tigers last season, though he posted a stellar 0.83 ERA across 21.2 innings during his rehab assignment with Cleveland. Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.19 ERA in five career starts vs. New York.

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Updated Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

New York Yankees -167

The Yankees should be entering this series after taking two of three over the weekend vs. Detroit, but closer Clay Holmes’ struggles continued as he blew the save in the bottom of the ninth on Sunday and New York lost 3-2 in 10 innings in the Little League Classic. Holmes entered trying to preserve a 1-0 lead. He allowed a one-out double to Colt Keith, who would come around to score on a base-hit from Jace Jung to send the game into extras.

Holmes was an All-Star this season and has an impressive 2.88 ERA to go along with 26 saves. But his MLB-high 10th blown save of the season wasted six shutout innings from Marcus Stroman. Holmes, who has six blown saves since July 5, is the first Yankee to record 10 blown saves in a season since Dave Righetti had 13 during the 1987 season.

Asked if he was committed to Holmes — who at times has been the victim of soft contact, but not on Sunday — as his closer for the rest of the year, Manager Aaron Boone said “yes” before adding that the Yankees have “a lot of perfect options,” which may be overly optimistic.

Jasson Dominquez

Touted outfield prospect Dominquez was called up for Sunday’s game, but already sent back down. Dominquez started in right field vs. Detroit but went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. The Yanks remain without their big in-season trade acquisition in Jazz Chisholm due to an elbow injury. The former Marlin said he has experienced no pain since the day after he injured his elbow sliding into home plate against the White Sox on Aug. 12. Chisholm was placed on the 10-day IL on Aug. 14 after an MRI revealed the sprain. He won’t be back for this series.

Luis Gil on the Hill

It’s AL Rookie of the Year candidate Luis Gil on the mound Tuesday. Gil (12-6) took the loss last Monday against the White Sox, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks over four innings. He struck out three. Gil failed to collect his third consecutive win against a terrible Chicago lineup that had seven hits, the most Gil has allowed since giving up eight to Baltimore on June 20.

The 26-year-old stumbled out the gate at Guarantee Rate Field, walking Nicky Lopez to open the game and giving up two run-scoring doubles in the first inning. Overall, Gil has now pitched to a 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 141:60 K:BB across 121.2 innings this season. That ERA leads all Yankee starters with at least 120 innings. Gil’s 3.1 brWAR is more than double that of second-place Nestor Cortes (1.4).

Gil has allowed 3 hits-or-fewer in 12 of his 23 starts this year, holding opponents to a .183/.292/.319 (80-for-436) slash line. He has allowed 3 runs-or-fewer in 18 of his 23 starts, 2 runs-or-fewer in 15 of his starts and one-or-zero runs in 14 of his starts (including five scoreless starts). Gil is currently second in AL Rookie of the Year odds behind Orioles’ outfielder Colton Cowser.

Gil didn’t face the Guardians in Cleveland earlier this season when New York took two of three. He is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 4.1 career innings against them.

Guardians at Yankees Info

When: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): Matthew Boyd/Luis Gil
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/