2021 UEFA Nations League: Italy vs Spain Betting Analysis

2021 UEFA Nations League: Italy vs Spain Betting Analysis

Written by on October 5, 2021

UEFA Nations League Italy vs Spain

On Wednesday, Italy and Spain throw down in the UEFA Nations League Semifinal. The contest is a rematch of this past summer’s EURO 2020 Semifinal that Italy won via penalty kicks. The match happens in Italy, which is one of the reasons the Italians are favorites on the moneyline and handicap. Will Italy make it two in a row versus the Spanish? Or will Spain exact revenge over the Italians? Check out Nations League odds, analysis, and a free pick for Italy versus Spain.  

UEFA Nations League Semifinal: Italy vs. Spain

  • When: Wednesday, Oct. 6 at 2:45 pm ET
  • Where: Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Italy   
  • Handicap Odds: Spain +½ (-156) / Italy -½ (+117) 
  • Moneyline Odds: Spain +235 / Italy +121 / Draw +210
  • Total Odds: O 2 ½ (+124) / U 2 ½ (-172)

Why Bet on Spain versus Italy?

Spain followed up the loss to Italy with a 2-1 defeat versus Sweden in a FIFA World Cup Qualifying match. But since losing 2 in a row, the Spanish have rolled. Spain has outscored Georgia and Kosovo by a combined 6-0. Spain is at the top of their game. They forced penalty kicks in the last match against Italy. The Spanish have a real shot to win this in regulation.   

Spain Last 5

  • W – 2-0 vs. Kosovo
  • W – 4-0 vs. Georgia
  • L – 2-1 vs. Sweden
  • L – 1-1 vs. Italy
  • D – 1-1 vs. Switzerland

Spain Predicted Starting Lineup

  • Simon
  • Laporte
  • Garcia
  • Alba
  • Azpilicueta
  • Busquets
  • Pedri
  • Koke
  • Olmo
  • Torres
  • Oyarzabal

Why Bet on Italy versus Spain?

Since beating England at the Euro 2020 Finals, Italy has continued to show they’re one of the best national teams, if not the best, in the world. Italy drew 1-1 versus Bulgaria and then 0-0 agianst Switzerland. Versus Lithuania, the Italians broke out with a huge 5-0 victory. The starters from the Euro Tournament win should hit the pitch on Wednesday. Italy offers above even money odds to beat the Spanish in regulation and the match happens on the Italian’s pitch. Backing the Azzuri is a solid play.  

Italy Last 5

  • W – 5-0 vs. Lithuania
  • D – 0-0 vs. Switzerland
  • D – 1-1 vs. Bulgaria
  • W – 1-1 vs. England
  • W – 1-1 vs. Spain

Italy Predicted Starting Lineup

  • Donnarumma
  • Chiellini
  • Bonucci
  • Emerson
  • Di Lorenzo
  • Jorginho
  • Verratti
  • Barella
  • Immobile
  • Insigne
  • Berardi
  • Chiesa

Italy vs. Spain Final Betting Analysis

Spain has played great in their last couple, but the Spanish are up against it versus Italy. First, Spain has yet to find a true striker.

Ferran Torres, the likely starter at striker on Wednesday, is a Man City sub. Torres has talent. He’s not a take over striker the way Federico Chiesa, Italy’s starting striker, is.

Not only that, but Italy is rounding back into form. The 5-0 victory over Lithuania is a true breakout performance.

What Spain must worry about is that players like Utkus, Kean, Raspadori, and Di Lorenzo scored the goals versus Lithuania. On Wednesday, the Spanish should see Immobile, Insigne, Berardi, Barella, Verratti, Jorginho, and Chiesa.

Finally, the Azzuri play this on their pitch. All signs point to the Italians winning this match. Go with Italy.

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