UEFA Nations League Matchday 5 Odds: Top Games + Who Moves on to the Knockout Phase

One of the great things about modern day football is that there is always something big going on at any given time.

The tournaments come thick and fast on both domestic and international fronts, which means there is always something exciting happening, not to mention plenty of games to wager on.

My UEFA Nations League Matchday 5 Analysis

This week, we take a short break from the domestic leagues to get back into the UEFA Nations League.

The group stage of the tournament is coming to a close as we head into Matchday 5, and while we will have promotion and relegation across the leagues, what we are interested in here is League A and the 8 teams who will head to the knockout phase.

We will have the top 2 teams in each group in League A moving on, so let’s look at the best upcoming games in each group, while also talking about who we think will move on.

Portugal -370 vs Poland +810

When: Friday, November 15, 2024, 2:45 PM
Where: Estádio do Dragão, Porto, Portugal

After starting group play with a win, the wheels have come off for Poland, who have now lost 2 and drawn 1 since that win.

That very much leaves them in must win territory, with a trip to Portugal not the ideal visit for a team in dire need of a win.

#PartilhaAPaixão | #NationsLeague pic.twitter.com/DPhgIRHXNn

— Portugal (@selecaoportugal) November 11, 2024

They will be up against a Portugal team that saw their perfect start come to an end with a 0-0 draw in Glasgow against Scotland last time out.

Even with that draw, Portugal is still very much in control of the group, sitting on top 1ith 10 points from a possible 12.

It was Portugal coming away with the 3-1 when they played Poland earlier in this group, so you would certainly expect them to win again in their own building on Friday.

I think it’s fair to suggest that Portugal will be moving on to the knockout phase, as they are in complete control of this group. They are 3 points ahead of Croatia in 2nd place, but the Croatians have a bit of a tricky one against Scotland, but you would still expect them to pick up all 3 points against a team that has taken just 1 point to this stage in the proceedings. I think it will be Portugal finishing on top, with Croatia settling for 2nd.

Belgium +145 vs Italy +175

When: Thursday, November 14, 2024, 2:45 PM
Where: King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels, Belgium

One of the biggest surprises of this group has been how poor Belgium has been through the opening 4 games.

They have managed to pick up just 4 points and they now need to win out to have any shot at landing in the top 2 in Group 1.

Good to have you back, boys! #Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/5b1Rc8CzN1

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) November 11, 2024

They will be at home on Thursday night against an Italy team that can clinch a spot in the knockout phase with just a draw.

These two served up a fantastic game in the earlier meeting in this group, playing to a 2-2 draw in a game that was played on Italian soil.

Belgium is going to need to open up here and hope that they can get the 3 points that will keep their slim hopes of moving on alive.

I am tempted to go with the draw again here, but I think that Belgium might just grind out the win at home.

Italy leads the way in Group 1 with 10 points from 4 games and need just 1 more point to clinch their spot in the next round. As mentioned above, though, they have a tough matchup with Belgium, while France will play Israel, who are without a win at the bottom of the group. France is just 1 point back of Italy and could well move to the top of the group once Matchday 5 is complete. Regardless of how the next round of games play out, I think it’s safe to say that France and Italy will be in the knockout phase.

Netherlands -275 vs Hungary +630

When: Saturday, November 16, 2024, 2:45 PM
Where: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Netherlands

I am not one prone to bouts of hyperbole, but this is easily the biggest game in the group to this point.

– November 2024

Welcome back @DeJongFrenkie21 , Noa Lang and @RenschDevyne #NothingLikeOranje #NationsLeague pic.twitter.com/m15HbySPUR

— OnsOranje (@OnsOranje) November 8, 2024

The Germans are well clear at the top, but both Netherlands and Hungary are sitting tied on 5 points, with that 2nd place spot very much up for grabs.

The Netherlands started their campaign with a 5-2 hammering of Bosnia, but since then, they have settled for two draws, including one on the road against Hungary, and a loss to Germany last time out.

Hungary kept their hopes of a top 2 finish alive with a 2-0 win over Bosnia in their last game, but this is a tough road trip to what will be a hostile environment.

Matchday 5 will potentially clear up a lot of things in this group. Germany is safe at the top of the group, and I expect them to lay a beating on Bosnia this weekend, which would clinch them the top spot. If Netherlands beat Hungary as we predicted, then they will be in pole position to take 2nd place, which is exactly how I think this will all play out.

Denmark +380 vs Spain -137

When: Friday, November 15, 2024, 2:45 PM
Where: Parken, Copenhagen, Denmark

This is an important game for both teams, although you have to say that the majority of the pressure falls on the shoulders of Denmark, who are trailing Spain at the top.

Lamine Yamal will be missed for 2-3 weeks for his injury. pic.twitter.com/LlY4bHoI6n

— treyidolo (@treyidol0) November 11, 2024

If the group stage was to end now, both of these teams would be moving on, but with 2 games still to come, things are not totally cut and dry.

Spain looks to be safe at the top, taking 10 points from their first 4 games.

A draw would be enough to see them move on. Denmark is in the #2 spot right now and would realistically be happy with a draw in this one, Spain won 1-0 in their earlier meeting, and I think this might end in a draw.

I think you can comfortably put your money on Spain to move on, but the 2nd place spot is still up for grabs. While Denmark has the edge at the moment, Serbia is still on their heels. If the Danes can somehow get something out of their game against Spain, they will feel much better about their chances of moving on. Either way, I think they will take the #2 spot and a place in the knockout phase.

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