Auburn Vs Alabama Expert Analysis - NCAAF Betting

Auburn Vs Alabama Expert Analysis – NCAAF Betting

Written by on November 27, 2020

The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will look to remain unbeaten while getting some payback when they host the 22nd-ranked Auburn Tigers in their Week 13 SEC showdown and 85th edition of their annual Iron Bowl showdown. With the Tide looking to take another step toward reaching the SEC Championship game and Auburn looking to pull off the huge upset to give their postseason hopes a big boost, let’s find out where the best betting value lies in this intriguing affair so you can go ahead and place your bets against their NCAAF odds.

College Football Odds & Predictions – Auburn at No. 1 Alabama

Auburn Tigers (5-2) Vs Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 28, 2020 at 3:30 PM ET
  • Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium

Why Bet On No. 22 Auburn at +24.5

There are some good reason to back the Tigers as three-touchdown plus road dogs in this affair. First, Auburn has won three straight including a 30-17 win over Tennessee last weekend as a 10-point home favorite. Quarterback Bo Nix passed for 220 yards with one TD pass and one interception while running back D.J. Williams added 66 rushing yards and one score on 11 carries.

Auburn has covered the spread in three straight games while putting 30 points or more on the board in each of their last three games and four of five overall. The bad news is that Tigers freshman running back Tank Bigsby (527 yards rushing, five touchdowns, 5.73 yards per carry) may not suit up for this affair after suffering a hip injury early in last week’s win over the Volunteers. Still, Auburn has some high hopes after upsetting the Crimson Tide 48-45 last season to ruin Alabama’s playoff hopes.

“Obviously, it’s no secret right now that we’ve been beat up, up front offensively,” Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn said. “We’ll see if we’re able to get our tackles back. … It’s next man up. And just got to step up and get the job done. So that’s our mindset.”

Why Bet On No. 1 Alabama at -24.5

There are some good reasons to back the top-ranked Crimson Tide as well. Alabama comes into this affair off an emphatic 63-3 blowout win over Kentucky last weekend as quarterback Mac Jones passed for 230 yards with two TD passes and one interception before giving way to backup Bryce Young who also added a touchdown pass in the win.

Running back Najee Harris rushed for 83 yards and two scores on 13 carries while backup Jase McClellan added 99 rushing yards and one score on 10 carries. Alabama is ranked a stellar third in scoring (49.4 ppg) and the Heisman Trophy-contending Jones has thrown for 2,426 yards with 18 TD passes and three interceptions. Still, head coach Nick Saban said his team needs to be on guard for anything as they come into this matchup against a team that stunned them a year ago.

“This is going to be a very challenging game for us in a lot of ways,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said. “We certainly need to play our best football of the season to be able to have success in this game.”

Expert Analysis and Prediction

Alabama might be undefeated and rolling right now, but Auburn has won two of the last three meetings in the Iron Bowl series and four of the last 10 meetings overall. While Alabama has gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 6-0 ATS in its last six home games, the Tide are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Auburn has gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game even though the home team in this rivalry has gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

While I don’t see Auburn getting the outright upset in this matchup, I do like the Tigers to narrowly cover the chalk as a huge road dog in this Week 13 showdown. The Tigers have covered the spread in three of the last four meetings and I believe Auburn will do so again, but just narrowly!

Pick: Alabama 42 Auburn 21

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