Liberty Flames Vs Toledo Rockets Betting Trends - Boca Raton Bowl Preview

Liberty Flames Vs Toledo Rockets Odds & Betting Trends – Boca Raton Bowl Preview

On Tuesday, Mid-American Conference squad Toledo takes on 23-ranked Liberty in the 2022 Boca Raton Bowl. Liberty must play without head coach Hugh Freeze, who is now Auburn’s HC, which might explain why Toledo is a 5-point chalk. Can the Rockets add insult to injury by squelching the Flames? Or will Liberty add an exclamation point to a terrific season with a big win? See below for College Football Bowl Odds, analysis, and a free pick for Liberty versus Toledo. 

Who is Playing in the Boca Raton Bowl? | Liberty Flames vs Toledo Rockets Betting Preview

College Football 2022 Boca Raton Bowl Betting Preview for #23 Liberty versus Toledo Rockets

  • When: Tuesday, Dec. 20 at 7:30 pm ET 
  • Where: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL  
  • TV / Streaming: ESPN / ESPN+
  • ATS Odds: Toledo -5
  • Money line Odds: Liberty +170 / Toledo -205   
  • Over/Under Odds: 54

Why bet on Liberty versus Toledo?

With or without Freeze, Liberty is still the team that went 8-4 during the regular season. The nation’s 23-ranked squad lost to Wake Forest by a point, beat BYU 41-14 and bested Arkansas 21-19. 

Those are three wins over Power Conference schools that most expected should have dominated Liberty. Not only that, but the Flames average 179 rushing yards per game, which means they should keep the ball from Toledo’s offense. 

Liberty Flames Offensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 401.0
  • Passing Yards: 222.0
  • Rushing Yards: 179.0
  • Points Scored: 28.3
  • Turnovers: 11

Liberty Flames Defensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 345.2
  • Passing Yards: 201.2
  • Rushing Yards: 144.0
  • Points Scored: 24.9
  • Takeaways: 14

Why bet on Toledo versus Liberty?

Toledo’s offense is terrific. But it’s the defense that has made huge strides this season. The Rockets allow 331.9 yards per game, which ranks twenty-fourth in the nation.

Not only that, but Toledo beat a quality team like Ohio to win the MAC Championship. Earlier in the season, the Rockets almost pulled off the upset victory over San Diego State in a 17-14 loss. 

Toledo Rockets Offensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 405.9
  • Passing Yards: 228.2
  • Rushing Yards: 177.8
  • Points Scored: 32.1
  • Turnovers: 10

Toledo Rockets Defensive Averages

  • Total Yards: 331.9
  • Passing Yards: 185.5
  • Rushing Yards: 146.5
  • Points Scored: 25.5
  • Takeaways: 12

Flames vs Rockets Relevant Trends

  • Flames are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss
  • Liberty is 5-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record
  • Under is 4-1 in the Flames’ last 5 non-conference games
  • Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Toledo is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games
  • Over is 10-1 in the Rockets’ last 11 games following a straight up win 

23-Liberty Flames vs Toledo Rockets Final Betting Prediction

Toledo opened a -1.5 favorite. So far, all the money has gone to the Rockets. The reason?

The Flames are reeling. Ever since the 21-19 upset victory over Arkansas, Liberty has played like a bad Division II team. 

Connecticut beat Liberty 36-33 as a +13.5 underdog. In the Flames next game, Liberty fell 22-23 to VA Tech as a -11 favorite.

Those two losses stung. But nothing Liberty has done this season was as bad as losing 49-14 to New Mexico State

But before jumping down Liberty’s throat for losing to NMSU, it’s important to note that the Aggies finished their season going 5-1 against the spread. 

Not only that, but Liberty has already hired a new coach, former Coastal Carolina HC Jamey Chadwell. Knowing Chadwell is arriving in the spring, Liberty’s players should step it up. The Flames are a bad bet at +1.5. But at +5, Liberty is the play. 

NCAAF Boca Raton Bowl Pick: Liberty Flames +5  


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