New Year’s Six Bowl Odds: Best Bets, Matchups & Betting Strategy

If you are looking for the best matchups of the college football season, outside of the National Championship Game, you have to look toward the New Year’s Six games. While these are the best games in the bowl schedule, they can also be the riskiest for bettors. The fact that you have elite teams meeting up, as well as the potential of players sitting out ahead of the NFL Draft, it can be difficult to make predictions as to how things will go. Market volatility and shifting odds are real in the New Year’s Six bowl odds, so use this guideline to help move you through the madness that is the biggest games on the college football schedule.

Which Teams Are Most Likely to Cover th e Spread in the New Year’s Six?

When putting together your college football spread analysis for these massive games, there are several things that you need to take into account. Some teams are more motivated to win than others, while you also have players opting out and coaches moving on. All of that before we even talk about travel and rustiness, because there are weeks between the end of the season and the New Year’s Six games. If you take all of that out of the equation, you need to look for teams that are in the top 10 in defense, as they tend to have a way to shut down elite offenses, helping them cover the sportsbook spread odds.

How Does Being a Playoff Semifinal vs. Non-Semifinal Bowl Affect Odds & Value?

When it comes to bow betting volatility, it really does depend on the game. In the CFP semifinals, opt-outs and coaching changes are off the table. The same may not the true for the Cotton and Peach bowls, so you really need to keep up with who is declaring for the Draft or heading to the portal. Non-semifinal bowl value tends to be different and requires you to dig a little deeper into all the variables to land at on a reliable prediction.

What Betting Strategies Work Best for Major College Bowl Games?

Some schools are more recognizable and iconic than their opponent, leading some to bet blindly. This is never a good idea and should have no place in your college bowl game strategy. A lot of returning players, especially at QB, bowl experience, and coaching stability are far more important to the final outcome.

One of the biggest bowl game betting tips we can give is not to look at the status of the school when looking at making your wagers.

How Do Matchups (Conference vs. Conference) Impact Value in the New Year’s Six?

Conference Strength vs. Style

Rankings go out the window in non-conference matchups. For example, a Big 12 team that plays a high tempo offense might be snuffed by a Big Ten rush defense that swarms the QB, all of which can affect the spreads and totals. Look at past speed vs physicality matchups to find historical data for a bowl game matchup breakdown.
Historical Bowl Performance

If you look back at bowl game historic trends, you find factors that can help you find value betting opportunities. Teams with bench depth always seem to do well, which is why the SEC is so dominant.

How Do Injuries, Opt-Outs & Coaching Changes Affect Bowl Odds?

Interim coaches, opt-outs, and portal moves all impact on the odds for NY6 games. For example, a QB opting out can move the line by as much as 7 points. Running back opt-outs move the odds by 2-3 points, while defensive moves can change the total. College football opt-out odds can mean real value if you are paying attention to all the moves.

Should You Bet Moneyline, Spread or Over/Under in the New Year’s Six?

For your NY6 moneyline picks, look for underdogs going against a team with multiple opt-outs. Motivation comes into play when for the spread when there is a clear gap. As mentioned earlier, a tempo mismatch often dictates the total, especially when combined with defensive opt-outs. Check out the odds for each on your online sportsbook and consider props and 1H odds, too.

How Early Should You Bet New Year’s Six Games vs. Waiting for Line Movements?

You need to have an early vs late betting strategy for the NY6 games. Early odds are softer and may be worth playing if you are sure that opt-outs and other details are off the table. That said, if you are sure that opt-outs will be announced later, you can take advantage and make your picks while the odds are in your favor. Timing is everything, with opt-out heavy teams delivering closing line value when the odds shift by as much as 4-10 points.

Common Mistakes Bettors Make with New Year’s Six Bowl Games

The most common bowl games betting mistakes come when not paying attention to opt-outs, injuries, coaching changes, and other factors that play a role in the game outcome. Betting on a team by reputation alone is another big mistake. Pay attention to the news for every team to avoid losing bets in college football.

FAQ

Do underdogs or favorites perform better historically in the New Year’s Six? – Favorites perform slightly better, but it all depends on the factors we discussed,
Are semifinal lines sharper than the other NY6 bowls? – Semifinal lines tend to be more static and reliable.
How do I evaluate motivation in college bowl games? – A team with a lot of opt-out or an interim coach may not be too motivated.
What’s the biggest opt-out factor that moves lines? – QBs and defensive opt-outs.
How important are coaching changes when betting bowl games? – Very important, even all the way down to coordinators.

Final Thoughts

Understanding all the factors that can impact the game and the New Year’s Six odds will help you have more success in these games. Shop for lines and track movements and news in your favorite online sportsbook. If you want to stay up to date and increase your chances of winning, Get the Latest New Year’s Six Odds at MyBookie Sportsbook.

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