Purdue vs. Minnesota | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Purdue is still in the running for the Big Ten West Division title, while Minnesota has been one of the conference’s biggest disappointments. The Boilermakers visit the Gophers in one of four college football games around the country on Friday.

How to Bet Purdue at Minnesota NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

• When: Friday, 7:30 PM ET
• Where: TCF Bank Stadium
• TV: Big Ten Network
• Stream: BTN+
• Radio:com
• Opening NCAAF Lines: Purdue -3 (total 62.5)

Last Meeting

Minnesota was very good last year and won 38-31 at Purdue. Gophers QB Tanner Morgan completed his first 14 throws, and finished with 396 yards and four touchdowns – he’s still with Minnesota. Morgan, who finished 21-for-22, became the fourth player in school history to complete 14 consecutive passes, tying a record last done by Mitch Leidner in December 2015. Of the 56 plays run by the Golden Gophers, 12 went for 16 or more yards. Boilers QB Elijah Sindelar and All-American receiver Rondale Moore left on the same first-quarter play due to injuries.

This will be the 76th all-time meeting between the schools. Minnesota leads the series 39-33-3 and is 32-12-3 at home. Minnesota is 5-0 all-time against Purdue at TCF Bank Stadium with wins in 2009, 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018.

Why Bet on Purdue?

The Boilers (2-1) have had one game canceled so far this season and come off their first loss, 27-20 at home last Saturday against No. 23 Northwestern. Purdue became the first team to score in the second half vs. Northwestern this season and forced a pair of late three and outs defensively to give itself an opportunity to tie the game, but the Wildcats hung on.  The loss snapped a three-game home win streak against AP top-25 teams for Purdue.

The Boilermakers threw the ball 51 times vs. 17 rushes and were just 4 of 17 on third-down opportunities. Zander Horvath’s career-high nine receptions for 100 yards, almost all on screen passes, helped compensate some for a Purdue rushing attack that only generated 26 yards by running backs and wide receivers.

Horvath’s 100 yards receiving were the most by a Purdue running back since Edwin Watson had five receptions for 102 yards vs. Oklahoma State in the 1997 Alamo Bowl. Three different Purdue players have gone over 100 yards in a game six times in three contests. Horvath leads with way with a pair of 100-yard rushing games (129 vs. Iowa and 102 at Illinois) and that 100-yard receiving game.

David Bell’s school-record streak of five consecutive games with 100-plus receiving yards was snapped as he was held to nine catches for 78 yards. Bell still has had at least 100 receiving yards in eight of 15 career games. QB Aidan O’Connell was 28-for-51 for 263 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Boilers racked up 11 tackles for loss, their most since a September 2016 win vs. Nevada. Derrick Barnes led the defense with 14 tackles — eight solo, six assisted — and contributed 2 1/2 tackles for loss.

Six of Purdue’s last seven games have been decided by seven points or less, and the Boilermakers are 4-2 in those six one-score contests. The Boilermakers have played on Friday 11 times previously with a 5-5-1 record. Purdue’s 44-21 victory over Ohio in 2017 was Jeff Brohm’s first as the Boilermakers’ head coach.

Why Bet on Minnesota?

The Gophers (1-3) were blown out 35-7 by Iowa last Friday as a disappointing season continues. Jack Koerner and Riley Moss each picked off Tanner Morgan for the Gophers quarterback’s first two-interception game in two years, and Zach VanValkenburg had three of the team’s four sacks.

Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 144 yards on 33 attempts, but the junior tailback who entered the evening with the highest rushing average in the FBS didn’t come close to controlling the game like he did the last two weeks. Ibrahim rushed for 431 yards and eight scores against Maryland and Illinois.

Still, Ibrahim has 10 career games with 100+ yards, which includes a current streak of five in a row. Ibrahim’s five‐game streak ties for third‐longest in program history. He is the first Big Ten player with 140 rush yards in five straight games since Michigan’s Mike Hart in 2004. Ibrahim is also the first Big Ten player with at least 700 rushing yards through his team’s first four games of a season since Wisconsin’s Michael Bennett in 2000.

Ibrahim leads the nation in rushing yards per game with an average of 178.8. He ranks 13th in the nation in rushing yards (715) despite playing in only four games. The 12 people above him have all played in seven or more games. Ibrahim ranks tied for seventh nationally in rushing touchdowns (10) and everyone ahead of him or tied with him has played in at least six games.

Morgan completed 16‐of‐33 passes for 167 yards and one TD and those two picks. Morgan has thrown a touchdown pass in a school‐record 18 straight games. The Gophers are 13‐5 in those contests. The last time Morgan went without a touchdown pass was Minnesota’s win at Wisconsin (11/24/18). Morgan is 16‐7 as a starting QB.

Since 1975, no Minnesota QB has begun his career with a better record as a starter. Morgan’s career winning percentage (.696) is the highest for any Gophers QB with 10 or more starts. Morgan’s 5,423 career passing yards ranks sixth all‐time at Minnesota, and his 43 career passing TDs ranks fourth best.

Since Nov. 26, 2011, Minnesota is 40-19 at home in its last 59 games. Minnesota is 15-8 at TCF Bank Stadium under Coach PJ Fleck.

Game Trends

• Boilermakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
• Golden Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.

Expert College Football Prediction

Minnesota 35, Purdue 32

 

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