Farmers Insurance Open Odds Favorites, Betting Prediction, Prop Picks 2023

Farmers Insurance Open Odds Favorites, Betting Prediction, Prop Picks 2023

Written by on January 25, 2023

Held at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California, the Farmers Insurance Open is a longstanding PGA Tour event that has been played every year since its inception in 1952. There’s more than $8.7 million in prize money on the line this week, with $1.57 million going to the winner.

Luke List was a surprise victor at Torrey Pines last year, defeating Will Zalatoris in a playoff. Patrick Reed dominated the event in 2021, winning by five strokes over Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Henrik Norlander, Ryan Palmer, and Xander Schauffele. Let’s get closer look at the upcoming Farmers Insurance Open tournament so you can place your bets against the PGA Tour Betting favorites.

Golf Betting Analysis and Predictions for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Tournament

Outright Betting Odds

  • Jon Rahm +410
  • Xander Schauffele +1175
  • Tony Finau +1200
  • Collin Morikawa +1550
  • Justin Thomas +1700
  • Will Zalatoris +1775
  • Max Homa +2000
  • Jason Day +2200
  • Sungjae Im +2200
  • Taylor Montgomery +2900

A Look Back at the American Express

The PGA Tour season is in full swing, with the Masters now only about three months away. The Tour’s top players are looking to get their games in top form, and that leaves us another deep field at the Farmers Insurance Open. The field was strong last week at the American Express, which was won by Jon Rahm.

Rahm, who won the Farmers Insurance Open in 2017 and was runner-up in 2020, won his fourth title in his last five starts at the American Express with a final score of 27-under, one stroke ahead of rookie Davis Thompson. Despite his recent success, he’s only ranked No. 4 in the world and could only move up to No. 3 if he wins again this week. Rahm called the Official World Golf Ranking system “laughable” back in November.

Farmers Insurance Best Bet

There’s others with shorter odds, but Jason Day (+2200) has a strong case for being the best-value pick this weekend. The 35-year-old Australian is arguably beyond his best days in the sport, but has played the best golf of his career at Torrey Pines. 

Day finished third in last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, just one stroke behind List and Zalatoris for the playoff, and has six top-10 finishes, including two wins, at Torrey Pines. He has the second-most strokes gained among all players during the last 36 rounds at Torrey Pines and is in perhaps the best physical shape of his career. He finished T18 at the American Express last weekend.

Day has 12 career victories on the PGA Tour, but a win this weekend would be his first since winning the Wells Fargo Championship in 2018. He also won the Farmers that year.

Prop Bets

  • Round 1 – 18 Hole Match Bet – Day (-116) vs. Homa (-116)

Considering we’re going with Day to win the event, it’s worth going with the Aussie in a first-round prop bet match over Max Homa. Through his first eight events in 2022-23, Day has shot over 70 just three times.

  • Will There Be A Playoff? – Yes (+300) or No (-490)

There’s decent value is betting on a playoff at the Farmers Insurance Open. There have been three playoffs in the last eight tournaments, so +300 is more than a good value.


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