Epicenter, the Kentucky Derby second place finisher, is a 6-5 morning line favorite to win the Preakness Stakes. Based on past performances, Epicenter is a lock to win the Preakness. But like what Rich Strike proved less than two weeks ago, almost anything can happen in a horse race. Check out an analysis of Epicenter’s odds, why the Steve Asmussen trainee will and won’t win the second jewel, and a final analysis of Epicenter’s fair Preakness Stakes Odds.
Epicenter’s Odds to Win the 2022 Preakness Stakes Race
2022 Preakness Stakes
- When: Saturday, May 21
- Where: Pimlico Race Course
- TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock
Epicenter Odds to Win the 2022 Preakness Stakes
- Epicenter 6-5
Whether or not you believe Epicenter offers fair odds depends on a couple of factors. If you use Beyer Speed Figures, the speed figs that most horseplayers in the United State’s use, Epicenter is the fastest equine in the race.
But if you use almost any other speed figure, or if you make your own, you will see that Epicenter isn’t much faster than any of the other contenders. So what does this mean?
It means that you must think outside the box to either bet on the Asmussen trainee at 6-5 or to bet against the Asmussen trainee at 6-5.
So the answer to whether Epicenter offers fair morning line odds to win the Preakness is that it depends. Keep reading to see why Epicenter will win the second jewel, why he won’t, and a final odds analysis.
Why Epicenter will win the Preakness Stakes
The morning line chalk ran the best race in the Kentucky Derby. Not only that, but it looked like the Louisiana Derby winner was ready to kick it into another gear the moment he saw Rich Strike run up the rail.
In other words, if Epicenter had seen Rich Strike earlier, he may have held off the Derby winner. In any case, Epicenter proved at Churchill Downs that he’s the best horse in the Preakness. Chalk wins the Preakness all the time. So don’t let the odds talk you off Epicenter.
Why Epicenter won’t win the Preakness Stakes
There are multiple reasons not to bet on the favorite at 6-5. Yes, 6-5 odds on any horse in a Triple Crown race, especially after seeing what Rich Strike did on Derby Day, constitute underlay odds.
But there are other reasons not to back Epicenter. For starters, he ran his eyeballs out in the Derby. It’s tough seeing a young horse come back two weeks later and providing another fantastic performance.
Second, Early Voting is legit early speed. The Chad Brown trained runner has been pointing towards the Preakness since the second-place finish in the Wood Memorial.
Finally, Creative Minister and Secret Oath ran as fast or faster than Epicenter when winning races on the Derby undercard. Both of those horses could be in line for massive performances.
Final Analysis – Epicenter is a good bet at odds of 5/2 or higher
Epicenter should be the chalk. But unless you are a true believer in Beyer Speed Figures, the morning line, and potential off odds make Epicenter a play against to win.
Few horses can run as hard as Epicenter did in the Derby, come back two weeks later, and win the race. Epicenter fought to the wire, which wouldn’t have been the case if he had no shot to win the Derby.
It was a gallant effort. Gallant efforts take more out of a horse than a loss. Why? Because the jockey will lay off an equine if the horse has no shot of winning the race.
Creative Minister and Secret Oath breezed to their wins. Early Voting has had a nice vacation since running the best race of his life in the Wood Memorial. Those three will offer much better odds than Epicenter to win the Preakness Stakes.
If you like Epicenter, then bet on him no matter the odds. Sometimes, odds don’t matter. But if you’re on the fence, don’t back the Asmussen trainee unless you see 5/2 on the toteboard, and even then, consider backing Creative Minister, Early Voting, or Secret Oath to win the 2022 Preakness Stakes.
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Kentucky Derby | Grade I race
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Race information
| Race type | Thoroughbred |
|---|---|
| Distance | 1+1⁄4 miles (10 furlongs; 2 km) |
| Record | 1:59.40, Secretariat (1973,1+1⁄4 miles) 2:34.50, Spokane (1889,1+1⁄2 miles) |
| Surface | Dirt |
| Track | Left-handed |
| Qualification | 3-year-old |
| Weight | Colt/Gelding: 126 lbs (57.2 kg) Filly: 121 lb (55 kg) |
| Purse | US$3 million 1st: $1,860,000 |
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