Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Analysis Expert

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | MLB Betting Analysis Expert

The Boston Red Sox make their first visit of the season to AL East rival Toronto on Monday to open a four-game series and at least a few Red Sox will not be able to make the trip because they are unvaccinated for COVID. Let’s take a look at the following analysis for your MLB Odds.

How to Bet Red Sox at Blue Jays MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox are in the midst of a stretch during which they play 13 consecutive games against AL East opponents (2-4 so far). Following their current stretch, the Sox will play 2 series against AL East opponents through the end of June: 5/27-30 vs. BAL (5 games) and 6/27-29 at TOR (3 games).

We won’t know for sure everyone who won’t be available for the Red Sox due to COVID regulations at the Canadian border, although we do know that Manager Alex Cora and starting pitcher Tanner Houck won’t be traveling to Canada. Cora tested positive for COVID this past week and missed the weekend series in Tampa.

Cora, 46, is fully vaccinated and boosted, the Red Sox say, and he is dealing with mild symptoms. Under this season’s protocols, only symptomatic individuals are tested, and Cora must test negative twice before he can rejoin the team. Boston has two players, catcher Kevin Plawecki and utility infielder Jonathan Araúz, on the COVID list on the moment.

Canada’s rules dictate that unvaccinated individuals are not permitted to enter the country. Individuals must have at least two dosages of an mRNA vaccine, or one of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. In the case of the former, the most recent shot must have been administered at least 14 days prior to entering.

Designated hitter JD Martinez has missed the past four days with a groin injury so not clear if he will play Monday, either. Boston lost 5-2 at the Rays on Sunday and the offense is in a funk without Martinez.

It will be ace Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 3.68) on the mound Monday. Eovaldi yielded just one run but lasted only 4 2/3 innings last Tuesday as the Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 2-1. The Blue Jays made Eovaldi work, as he threw 95 pitches and was pulled after retiring the first two batters of the fifth inning. The right-hander struck out six and walked just one, inducing eight swinging strikes. Eovaldi hasn’t gone deeper than five innings in any start yet but now boasts a 19/3 K/BB ratio over 14 2/3 frames.

Since the start of 2021, Eovaldi leads AL pitchers in FanGraphs’ WAR (5.5). He has issued 2 walks or fewer in each of his last 22 regular season starts, matching his longest career streak (also 7/19/16-8/31/18). Eovaldi is 24 strikeouts shy of 1,000 for his career (976). Safe to say he won’t get that Monday.

Why Bet on Toronto?

Toronto is in a stretch of 20 games in 20 days (4-2). It marks the team’s longest scheduled stretch without an off-day this season. The Jays will face Boston seven times (2-1), Houston six times (2-1), the New York Yankees three times and finish with four vs. Cleveland.

Jordan Romano leads the league with eight saves but blew one Sunday. He had converted 31 consecutive save opportunities, dating back to last season, the longest streak in franchise history (Tom Henke – 25 in 1991) and what was the longest active streak in the majors.

The Jays had a four-game winning streak snapped Sunday in an 8-7 10-inning loss in Houston. The team remains without DH Teoscar Hernandez. He began a hitting progression Friday. Hernandez has been out for over a week with a strained left oblique. Toronto will want to take it slow with Hernandez as obliques are notorious for reinjury. Hernandez is hitting .316 with one homer, three runs, and three RBI across 19 at-bats in 2022. Catcher Danny Jansen is also on the injured list.

Jansen has had an up-and-down showing offensively in the majors. He had popped 11 homers in just 205 plate appearances last season, finishing the year on a .310/.365/.707 tear in the final month. Jansen had been off to a hot start, collecting four hits (including a pair of homers) this season before going down.

It’s Jose Berrios (1-0, 6.35) on the mound. Berrios recovered from a poor first to hold the Red Sox to one run in six innings and win for the first time this season last Wednesday. Four of the first five Red Sox hitters crushed the ball over 105 mph but Berrios able to escape allowing just the one run, and he was never hurt again, even though he did wind up allowing eight hits in all.

Over 8 career starts against the Red Sox, he has gone 1-5 with a 4.05 ERA (21 ER/46.2 IP).

Game Trends

  • Red Sox are 8-18 in their last 26 games as a road underdog.
  • Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 Monday games.
  • Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog.
  • Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 Monday games.
  • Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
  • Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
  • Red Sox are 26-12 in the last 38 meetings in Toronto.

Expert Prediction: Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 4


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