Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh: MLB Game Predictions & Betting Odds

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Has anyone ever wondered why the state rival Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t in the same National League divisions? Bragging rights are on the line starting Friday as they continue a series in Pittsburgh. The Phils are favored on the MLB lines.

How to Bet Phillies at Pirates MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: PNC Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Bailey Falter/Jose Quintana
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -125, Pirates +115 (total 8.5) | Bet MLB Today

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

If the Phillies make a trade by Tuesday, it figures to be for a starting pitcher or center fielder – maybe both. The one spot the Phillies could clearly upgrade is the same spot they could have upgraded most of the last decade: center field. Matt Vierling and Odubel Herrera have been OK, but the Phils have not gotten above-average production offensively or defensively in center. As for pitcher, starter Zach Eflin is sidelined an undetermined length of time by a knee injury.

What’s going on with Nick Castellanos? From 2016-21, Castellanos hit .286/.338/.515, averaging 36 doubles and 24 homers. This season, his first with the Phillies after signing a five-year, $100 million contract, has looked more like those early years. Castellanos’ batting average is 32 points lower than his career mark entering this season and his OPS is 158 points lower. He’s hit one home run in his last 202 plate appearances with a .263 on-base percentage. Castellanos is routinely attacked on the low-outside corner with breaking balls and has trouble laying off of them.

"He’s always expanded the strike zone. He’s expanding it more now than I’ve ever seen him expand it. But he’s a guy that hits line drives all over the field usually. It’s not like he’s old by any means and all of a sudden he’s going to lose that ability," GM Dave Dombrowski said.

It’s lefty Bailey Falter (0-3) on the mound Friday. Falter allowed four runs with five strikeouts over five innings in a loss against the Cubs last Sunday. Falter was recalled from Triple-A to make Sunday’s start with Eflin still on the injured list. He gave up a home run to Yan Gomes to lead off the third inning before Christopher Morel drove in a run with a double later in the frame. Two more runs would come across the plate in the fourth. Falter holds a 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts across 33 innings.

Over his last fourteen appearances at Triple-A dating back to last year, Falter has managed a 1.65 ERA alongside a 0.80 WHIP across 60.0 innings of work. In that same span, he’s walked just 11 batters, and struck out 77. He has been outstanding.

Why Bet on Pittsburgh?

Since the 2014 season, the Pirates have gone 26-22 against the Phillies, including a 14-7 mark at PNC Park (entering Thursday).

Maybe Pittsburgh’s best offensive player, outfielder Bryan Reynolds, was placed on the Paternity List prior to Thursday’s game against the Phillies so he won’t play Friday, either. To take his place on the roster, Bligh Madris was recalled from Indianapolis. Madris batted .259/.286/.407 in 15 games with the Pirates earlier this year, in what was his first shot at the majors.

Don’t be surprised if the Pirates trade starting pitcher Jose Quintana any day now – and certainly by Tuesday’s deadline. The Yankees and White Sox are among the teams showing trade interest in Quintana, who has been surprisingly steady for most of the season in Pittsburgh, working to a 3.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 85/29 K/BB ratio in 19 starts covering 97 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old left-hander is an impending free agent — he signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the Pirates in November.

Quintana is scheduled to start Friday. He has gone 3-3 with a 2.65 ERA (57.2ip/17er) in 11 starts this year at PNC Park and is 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA (32.0ip/3 ER) in five starts this season when he throws at least six innings. Quintana has not factored into a decision with a 1.88 ERA (5 ER in 24.0 IP), 30 strikeouts, 7 walks and a .179 opponent average in four career starts against the Phillies. His last appearance against Philadelphia came on Aug. 13, 2019, when he threw 6.0 innings of 2-run baseball (1 ER) with a career-high 14 strikeouts.

The Pirates have already made one big move this month when they traded Daniel Vogelbach to the New York Mets in exchange for reliever Colin Holderman. However, it is highly unlikely that will be Ben Cherington’s last move before the trade deadline. One player who is almost assured to be traded is outfielder Ben Gamel. The veteran is set to become a free agent at the end of the season and it is likely the Pirates would rather get something in return for Gamel nothing. The veteran has postseason experience, which teams will value, he can play all three outfield positions, and he is having a strong offensive season.

Game Trends for the Game

Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 Friday games.
Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Phillies are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
Pirates are 4-11 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series.
Pirates are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Expert Prediction
Phillies 5, Pirates 4