Tampa Bay vs Baltimore 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Tampa Bay vs Baltimore | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on July 27, 2022

Good pitching matchup on Wednesday night from Baltimore as the Birds start their ace Tyler Wells against underrated Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen. The Rays are short favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Rays at Orioles MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Rays should still be able to make the playoffs again this season but they recently got some bad news when former Gold Glover outfielder Kevin Kiermaier and ex-All-Star catcher Mike Zunino have both been ruled out for the season. In 63 games this season, Kiermaier hit .228 with a .649 OPS. He is a three-time Gold Glove winner in center field. Now 32, he has played his entire 10-year career with the Rays, but his six-year, $53.5 million contract expires at the end of this season. The Rays hold a $13 million option on Kiermaier’s services for 2023, but it’s hard to envision the club bringing him back at that sum.  He needs hip surgery.

Zunino, 31, hit just .148 over 36 games at Tampa Bay’s second catcher. He’s on a one-year, $3 million deal this season. Zunino will have thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. That surgery has become fairly prevalent for pitchers, with hurlers like Stephen Strasburg, John King, Brendan McKay and Daulton Jefferies requiring the procedure within the past year. It’s been far less common an occurrence for position players. Zunino hit 33 home runs a season ago, leading the Rays to bring him back on a $7 million option. The Rays reportedly are looking at a possible trade for Cubs All-Star catcher Willson Contreras.

Right-hander Drew Rasmussen (6-3) is on the mound Wednesday. Rasmussen gave up one earned run on seven hits and a walk while striking out four over five innings to earn the win in a 7-3 victory over the Royals last Friday. After tossing a couple of scoreless frames to begin his start, Andrew Benintendi singled home Nicky Lopez in the bottom of the third. Rasmussen’s command was a bit shaky, but he still managed to hold his opponent to one run scored for the 9th time this season.

Rasmussen has been solid since coming back from a hamstring injury at the beginning of July and boasts a 2.29 ERA in four starts this month. The 26-year-old has excellent spin on his fastball and opponents are hitting .245 on the four-seamer so far this season.

Rasmussen is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA (12.1-IP, 3-ER) in four career apps (2 starts) against the Orioles, including a 2.25 ERA (8-IP, 2-ER) in 2 starts. He last faced them in his season debut on April 9 at Tropicana Field, taking no decision after allowing 2 runs in 4 IP.

Why Bet on Baltimore?

Entering this season, the O’s had not won a series against Tampa Bay since July 31 to August 2, 2020 before taking two of three from May 20-22 and June 17-19. It marks the first time since 2018 that the Birds have taken multiple series against the Rays in a season.

Infielder Jonathan Araúz is dealing with a right finger sprain. Araúz sustained the minor injury when he jammed his right hand into the second-base bag on a headfirst slide, attempting to stretch a single into a double, during the eighth inning of Monday’s win over the Rays. He’s considered day-to-day moving forward.

Reliever Bryan Baker allowed two hits in a scoreless inning during Monday’s game. Baker is enjoying his best month of the season — he owns a 0.90 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 10 innings in July, and he hasn’t allowed a run in his last six appearances. The right-hander has racked up a 17:3 K:BB in that span. For the year, he has a 3-3 record, four holds and a blown save while recording a 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 46:15 K:BB in 42.1 innings.

It’s Tyler Wells (7-6) on the mound. Wells allowed five earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out four across five innings to take the loss last Friday against the Yankees. Four of the five runs that Wells surrendered came from a pair of home runs by Aaron Judge. While the long ball sunk his outing, it marked only the second time this season that Wells has been taken deep multiple times in a start. Overall, Wells has maintained a 3.69 ERA and 63:23 K:BB across 90.1 innings.

The Orioles are starting to monitor Wells’ innings. Wells, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and didn’t pitch during the canceled minor league season in 2020, threw 57 innings in 2021 as a Rule 5 draft choice of the Orioles. In 2018, Wells threw 119 1/3 innings, the most he has thrown as a professional. Manager Brandon Hyde said it isn’t realistic for Wells to pitch another 75 innings this season. His innings count is second only to Jordan Lyles’ 112.2.

“That’s why I’ve tried to shorten his starts,” Hyde said of Wells. “It doesn’t seem to be working out real well. He’s just been so efficient. We’re measuring a lot of things. We’re measuring the stressful innings. That’s so key is how many times he’s really having to pitch with traffic and runners in scoring position … We’re going to have to monitor him in the second half, for sure. I feel like we’ve handled it really well this year.”

Game Trends

  • Rays are 10-3 in their last 13 Wednesday games.
  • Rays are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
  • Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Orioles are 19-48 in their last 67 Wednesday games.

Expert Prediction

  • Orioles 4, Rays 3

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