Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies | 2021 NBA Expert Analysis

Written by on April 14, 2021

It’s two Western Conference teams battling for playoff position on Wednesday night when MVP candidate Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks visit reigning NBA Rookie of the Year Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavs are slight favorites on the NBA odds.

How to Bet Mavericks at Grizzlies NBA Odds & TV Info

Last Meeting

The Mavericks won the lone meeting so far, 102-92 at home on Feb. 22. Dallas led wire-to-wire. It is one of four games this season the Mavericks have won without trailing in at any point and their lone wire-to-wire win this year that didn’t feature any ties. Luka Doncic recorded 21 points, seven rebounds and five assists for the Mavericks, while Tim Hardaway Jr. added a game-high 29 points. Ja Morant tallied 22 points, four rebounds and nine assists for the Grizzlies in the losing effort.

The Mavericks are 68-30 all-time against the Grizzlies (37-13 at home, 31-17 on the road). In addition to taking the last two showdowns in Dallas, the Mavericks have also won two straight and three of the last four matchups in Memphis.

Why Bet on Dallas? | 2021 NBA Expert Analysis 

The Mavs lost their second in a row Monday, 113-95 at home to Philadelphia. Luka Doncic led Dallas with 32 points in 33 minutes. Doncic hadn’t had much success in three previous games vs. the Sixers, scoring 19, 19 and 14 points. Luka played with athletic tape on his left knee and appeared to favor his knee at one point, but he kept playing and there’s no reason to think he’ll sit here.

Dorian Finney-Smith posted 12 points and 11 rebounds. Finney-Smith has grabbed double-digit rebounds just twice this season and both occasions have come within the last three games. With the Mavs playing without Kristaps Porzingis (rest), Finney-Smith failed to take advantage of any extra scoring opportunities, though his 12 points snapped a streak of three straight contests scoring in single-digits.

J.J. Redick (sore right heel) made his Mavericks debut on Monday with four points on 1-of-7 shooting, two boards, two assists and one 3-pointer in 14 minutes. Redick hadn’t played a game since March 3 with the Pelicans. He said his right heel and Achilles are “sore all the time,” and he’ll be “managing” pain all season.

Porzingis is likely to play here. Porzingis, who missed the first meeting with Memphis this year due to low back tightness, averaged team highs of 29.0 points (.487 FG%, .450 3FG%, .917 FT%) and 11.5 rebounds per game against the Grizzlies in 2019-20.

Dallas is 27-2 this season when it leads by double digits. The Mavericks are 12-0 this year when they score 120+ points. Dallas is 10-2 this season when it shoots at least 50% from the floor (all 12 of those games have come since Jan. 20)

Why Bet on Memphis? | 2021 NBA Expert Analysis 

The Grizzlies snapped a two-game skid with a 101-90 win over Chicago on Monday. The game was originally scheduled for Jan. 27, but called off due to health and safety protocols. That left both teams playing Monday on the second night of a back-to-back, and coming off losses.

“I think it’s going to be really, really hard to have a lot of guys in double figures when you shoot (42%) from the field and 16% from the 3-point line.” Chicago coach Billy Donovan said. “I think our bench was 0 for 12 from 3. We didn’t shoot the ball particularly well all the way around as a team.”

Ja Morant hit 5-of-14 shots for 13 points, with 10 assists and three rebounds for his 10th double-double of the season and first since March 26, when he finished with 32 points and 11 assists in a loss against the Jazz. The second-year guard has looked excellent in recent weeks. He has scored in double digits in eight of his last nine outings while dishing out six or more dimes eight times during that span.

Jonas Valanciunas was terrific in shooting 12-for-15 for 26 points with 14 rebounds and three blocks. The last time he failed to secure double-digit rebounds in a game was on Feb. 28, and through seven games in April he’s averaging 21.3 points on 66.3% shooting, plus a 93.3% mark at the line. He’s added 16.7 boards and 2.7 blocks over the past three games. Since the All-Star break, Valančiūnas leads the NBA in rebounding (14.6), offensive rebounding (5.4), second chance points (7.0) and double-doubles (19).

Grayson Allen recorded 14 points, six rebounds and two assists across 32 minutes. Allen has played well since returning from a hip injury seven games ago, and he has scored in double digits five times during that stretch.

The Grizz played without De’Anthony Melton and Justise Winslow, and neither is likely for Wednesday. Memphis’ current three-game homestand marks the team’s only three home games during a 14-game stretch (April 4-26).

Game Trends

  • Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
  • Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
  • Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

Expert Prediction

  • Grizzlies 112, Mavericks 111

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