Rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson can make a name for himself on Sunday. Thompson will get the pigskin when the Miami Dolphins head to Buffalo to take on the rival Bills in an NFC Wild Card matchup. Will Skylar step it up enough to keep the score within the spread line? Or will Josh Allen and the Bills roll their AFC East rivals? See below for NFL Lines, analysis, and a free pick for Miami at Buffalo.
NFL Week Wild Card Preview and Prediction for Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Dolphins versus Bills Lines and Match Info
• When: Sunday, Jan. 15 at 1:00 pm ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
• TV / Streaming: CBS/Paramount+
• ATS Odds: Buffalo -13
• Money line Odds: Miami +525 / Buffalo -800
• Over/Under Odds: 43.5
Why bet on Miami versus Buffalo?
Miami must start Skylar Thompson but that could be a good thing. Thompson played within himself in the 11-6 victory over the New York Jets.
Skylar completed 20-of-31 for 152 yards. He didn’t throw a TD, but he also didn’t throw an interception. Not only that, but Thompson’s performance came against one of the best defenses in the league.
Miami Dolphins Offensive Averages
• Total Yards: 364.5
• Passing Yards: 265.4
• Rushing Yards: 99.2
• Points Scored: 23.4
• Turnovers: 21
Miami Dolphins Defensive Averages
• Total Yards: 337.8
• Passing Yards: 234.8
• Rushing Yards: 103.0
• Points Scored: 23.5
• Takeaways: 14
Why bet on Buffalo versus Miami?
Since a 33-30 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the Bills have rolled. Buffalo heads into their wild card matchup versus Miami on a 6-game winning streak.
One of the victories was a 32-29 win over the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa played in that game. Tua may not play another down in football, which is why Skylar Thompson gets the call.
Thompson did okay versus the Jets. But we know Josh Allen and the Bills will score points, which is why many expect Skylar to have a much tougher time versus Buffalo. The Bills are loaded and ready to make a statement.
Buffalo Bills Offensive Averages
• Total Yards: 397.6
• Passing Yards: 258.1
• Rushing Yards: 139.5
• Points Scored: 28.4
• Turnovers: 27
Buffalo Bills Defensive Averages
• Total Yards: 319.1
• Passing Yards: 214.6
• Rushing Yards: 104.6
• Points Scored: 17.9
• Takeaways: 24
Dolphins at Bills Relevant Trends
• Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC
• Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings
• Over is 6-1 in the Dolphins’ last 7 games on the road
• Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January
• Buffalo is 1-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 at home
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Final Betting Prediction
Sometimes the best play is the easiest. The point spread suggests Buffalo blows out Miami. However, even when they play against overmatched teams, the Bills almost never cover the spread.
Buffalo went 8-7-1 ATS. The Bills went 4-6 ATS in their final ten games. A couple of things to notice. First, the Bills covered in their final two games but that was against Chicago and New England.
Second, yes, Tua played in the two regular season matchups where Miami covered both and won the first head-to-head. But by cover, we mean by 3 points or less.
So does starting Skylar Thompson account for 10 points? Mike McDaniel knows how to attack Buffalo’s defense. The strategy won’t change, which means Thompson will move the football. Buffalo wins, but they don’t cover the spread.
NFL Wild Card Pick: Miami Dolphins +13
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